Bus factor is a metric that identifies how resilient is the project to the sudden engineer turnover. It states the minimal number of engineers that have to be hit by a bus for a project to be stalled. Even though the metric is often discussed in the community, few studies consider its general relevance. Moreover, the existing tools for bus factor estimation focus solely on the data from version control systems, even though there exists other channels for knowledge generation and distribution. With a survey of 269 engineers, we find that the bus factor is perceived as an important problem in collective development, and determine the highest impact channels of knowledge generation and distribution in software development teams. We also propose a multimodal bus factor estimation algorithm that uses data on code reviews and meetings together with the VCS data. We test the algorithm on 13 projects developed at JetBrains and compared its results to the results of the state-of-the-art tool by Avelino et al. against the ground truth collected in a survey of the engineers working on these projects. Our algorithm is slightly better in terms of both predicting the bus factor as well as key developers compared to the results of Avelino et al. Finally, we use the interviews and the surveys to derive a set of best practices to address the bus factor issue and proposals for the possible bus factor assessment tool.
Given its status as a classic problem and its importance to both theoreticians and practitioners, edit distance provides an excellent lens through which to understand how the theoretical analysis of algorithms impacts practical implementations. From an applied perspective, the goals of theoretical analysis are to predict the empirical performance of an algorithm and to serve as a yardstick to design novel algorithms that perform well in practice. In this paper, we systematically survey the types of theoretical analysis techniques that have been applied to edit distance and evaluate the extent to which each one has achieved these two goals. These techniques include traditional worst-case analysis, worst-case analysis parametrized by edit distance or entropy or compressibility, average-case analysis, semi-random models, and advice-based models. We find that the track record is mixed. On one hand, two algorithms widely used in practice have been born out of theoretical analysis and their empirical performance is captured well by theoretical predictions. On the other hand, all the algorithms developed using theoretical analysis as a yardstick since then have not had any practical relevance. We conclude by discussing the remaining open problems and how they can be tackled.
Common tasks encountered in epidemiology, including disease incidence estimation and causal inference, rely on predictive modeling. Constructing a predictive model can be thought of as learning a prediction function, i.e., a function that takes as input covariate data and outputs a predicted value. Many strategies for learning these functions from data are available, from parametric regressions to machine learning algorithms. It can be challenging to choose an approach, as it is impossible to know in advance which one is the most suitable for a particular dataset and prediction task at hand. The super learner (SL) is an algorithm that alleviates concerns over selecting the one "right" strategy while providing the freedom to consider many of them, such as those recommended by collaborators, used in related research, or specified by subject-matter experts. It is an entirely pre-specified and data-adaptive strategy for predictive modeling. To ensure the SL is well-specified for learning the prediction function, the analyst does need to make a few important choices. In this Education Corner article, we provide step-by-step guidelines for making these choices, walking the reader through each of them and providing intuition along the way. In doing so, we aim to empower the analyst to tailor the SL specification to their prediction task, thereby ensuring their SL performs as well as possible. A flowchart provides a concise, easy-to-follow summary of key suggestions and heuristics, based on our accumulated experience, and guided by theory.
Recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have fueled the emergence of human-AI collaboration, a setting where AI is a coequal partner. Especially in clinical decision-making, it has the potential to improve treatment quality by assisting overworked medical professionals. Even though research has started to investigate the utilization of AI for clinical decision-making, its potential benefits do not imply its adoption by medical professionals. While several studies have started to analyze adoption criteria from a technical perspective, research providing a human-centered perspective with a focus on AI's potential for becoming a coequal team member in the decision-making process remains limited. Therefore, in this work, we identify factors for the adoption of human-AI collaboration by conducting a series of semi-structured interviews with experts in the healthcare domain. We identify six relevant adoption factors and highlight existing tensions between them and effective human-AI collaboration.
We present PHORHUM, a novel, end-to-end trainable, deep neural network methodology for photorealistic 3D human reconstruction given just a monocular RGB image. Our pixel-aligned method estimates detailed 3D geometry and, for the first time, the unshaded surface color together with the scene illumination. Observing that 3D supervision alone is not sufficient for high fidelity color reconstruction, we introduce patch-based rendering losses that enable reliable color reconstruction on visible parts of the human, and detailed and plausible color estimation for the non-visible parts. Moreover, our method specifically addresses methodological and practical limitations of prior work in terms of representing geometry, albedo, and illumination effects, in an end-to-end model where factors can be effectively disentangled. In extensive experiments, we demonstrate the versatility and robustness of our approach. Our state-of-the-art results validate the method qualitatively and for different metrics, for both geometric and color reconstruction.
Developing technology and changing lifestyles have made online grocery delivery applications an indispensable part of urban life. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for such applications has dramatically increased, creating new competitors that disrupt the market. An increasing level of competition might prompt companies to frequently restructure their marketing and product pricing strategies. Therefore, identifying the change patterns in product prices and sales volumes would provide a competitive advantage for the companies in the marketplace. In this paper, we investigate alternative clustering methodologies to group the products based on the price patterns and sales volumes. We propose a novel distance metric that takes into account how product prices and sales move together rather than calculating the distance using numerical values. We compare our approach with traditional clustering algorithms, which typically rely on generic distance metrics such as Euclidean distance, and image clustering approaches that aim to group data by capturing its visual patterns. We evaluate the performances of different clustering algorithms using our custom evaluation metric as well as Calinski Harabasz and Davies Bouldin indices, which are commonly used internal validity metrics. We conduct our numerical study using a propriety price dataset from an online food and grocery delivery company, and the publicly available Favorita sales dataset. We find that our proposed clustering approach and image clustering both perform well for finding the products with similar price and sales patterns within large datasets.
It is shown, with two sets of indicators that separately load on two distinct factors, independent of one another conditional on the past, that if it is the case that at least one of the factors causally affects the other, then, in many settings, the process will converge to a factor model in which a single factor will suffice to capture the covariance structure among the indicators. Factor analysis with one wave of data can then not distinguish between factor models with a single factor versus those with two factors that are causally related. Therefore, unless causal relations between factors can be ruled out a priori, alleged empirical evidence from one-wave factor analysis for a single factor still leaves open the possibilities of a single factor or of two factors that causally affect one another. The implications for interpreting the factor structure of psychological scales, such as self-report scales for anxiety and depression, or for happiness and purpose, are discussed. The results are further illustrated through simulations to gain insight into the practical implications of the results in more realistic settings prior to the convergence of the processes. Some further generalizations to an arbitrary number of underlying factors are noted.
In the pooled data problem we are given a set of $n$ agents, each of which holds a hidden state bit, either $0$ or $1$. A querying procedure returns for a query set the sum of the states of the queried agents. The goal is to reconstruct the states using as few queries as possible. In this paper we consider two noise models for the pooled data problem. In the noisy channel model, the result for each agent flips with a certain probability. In the noisy query model, each query result is subject to random Gaussian noise. Our results are twofold. First, we present and analyze for both error models a simple and efficient distributed algorithm that reconstructs the initial states in a greedy fashion. Our novel analysis pins down the range of error probabilities and distributions for which our algorithm reconstructs the exact initial states with high probability. Secondly, we present simulation results of our algorithm and compare its performance with approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms that are conjectured to be optimal in a number of related problems.
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
We present a monocular Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) using high level object and plane landmarks, in addition to points. The resulting map is denser, more compact and meaningful compared to point only SLAM. We first propose a high order graphical model to jointly infer the 3D object and layout planes from single image considering occlusions and semantic constraints. The extracted cuboid object and layout planes are further optimized in a unified SLAM framework. Objects and planes can provide more semantic constraints such as Manhattan and object supporting relationships compared to points. Experiments on various public and collected datasets including ICL NUIM and TUM mono show that our algorithm can improve camera localization accuracy compared to state-of-the-art SLAM and also generate dense maps in many structured environments.
Training a deep architecture using a ranking loss has become standard for the person re-identification task. Increasingly, these deep architectures include additional components that leverage part detections, attribute predictions, pose estimators and other auxiliary information, in order to more effectively localize and align discriminative image regions. In this paper we adopt a different approach and carefully design each component of a simple deep architecture and, critically, the strategy for training it effectively for person re-identification. We extensively evaluate each design choice, leading to a list of good practices for person re-identification. By following these practices, our approach outperforms the state of the art, including more complex methods with auxiliary components, by large margins on four benchmark datasets. We also provide a qualitative analysis of our trained representation which indicates that, while compact, it is able to capture information from localized and discriminative regions, in a manner akin to an implicit attention mechanism.