Stochastic simulations such as large-scale, spatiotemporal, age-structured epidemic models are computationally expensive at fine-grained resolution. While deep surrogate models can speed up the simulations, doing so for stochastic simulations and with active learning approaches is an underexplored area. We propose Interactive Neural Process (INP), a deep Bayesian active learning framework for learning deep surrogate models to accelerate stochastic simulations. INP consists of two components, a spatiotemporal surrogate model built upon Neural Process (NP) family and an acquisition function for active learning. For surrogate modeling, we develop Spatiotemporal Neural Process (STNP) to mimic the simulator dynamics. For active learning, we propose a novel acquisition function, Latent Information Gain (LIG), calculated in the latent space of NP based models. We perform a theoretical analysis and demonstrate that LIG reduces sample complexity compared with random sampling in high dimensions. We also conduct empirical studies on three complex spatiotemporal simulators for reaction diffusion, heat flow, and infectious disease. The results demonstrate that STNP outperforms the baselines in the offline learning setting and LIG achieves the state-of-the-art for Bayesian active learning.
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Communication networks such as emails or social networks are now ubiquitous and their analysis has become a strategic field. In many applications, the goal is to automatically extract relevant information by looking at the nodes and their connections. Unfortunately, most of the existing methods focus on analysing the presence or absence of edges and textual data is often discarded. However, all communication networks actually come with textual data on the edges. In order to take into account this specificity, we consider in this paper networks for which two nodes are linked if and only if they share textual data. We introduce a deep latent variable model allowing embedded topics to be handled called ETSBM to simultaneously perform clustering on the nodes while modelling the topics used between the different clusters. ETSBM extends both the stochastic block model (SBM) and the embedded topic model (ETM) which are core models for studying networks and corpora, respectively. The inference is done using a variational-Bayes expectation-maximisation algorithm combined with a stochastic gradient descent. The methodology is evaluated on synthetic data and on a real world dataset.
We study distributed estimation and learning problems in a networked environment in which agents exchange information to estimate unknown statistical properties of random variables from their privately observed samples. By exchanging information about their private observations, the agents can collectively estimate the unknown quantities, but they also face privacy risks. The goal of our aggregation schemes is to combine the observed data efficiently over time and across the network, while accommodating the privacy needs of the agents and without any coordination beyond their local neighborhoods. Our algorithms enable the participating agents to estimate a complete sufficient statistic from private signals that are acquired offline or online over time, and to preserve the privacy of their signals and network neighborhoods. This is achieved through linear aggregation schemes with adjusted randomization schemes that add noise to the exchanged estimates subject to differential privacy (DP) constraints. In every case, we demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithms by proving convergence to the estimators of a hypothetical, omniscient observer that has central access to all of the signals. We also provide convergence rate analysis and finite-time performance guarantees and show that the noise that minimizes the convergence time to the best estimates is the Laplace noise, with parameters corresponding to each agent's sensitivity to their signal and network characteristics. Finally, to supplement and validate our theoretical results, we run experiments on real-world data from the US Power Grid Network and electric consumption data from German Households to estimate the average power consumption of power stations and households under all privacy regimes.
We present a potent computational method for the solution of inverse problems in fluid mechanics. We consider inverse problems formulated in terms of a deterministic loss function that can accommodate data and regularization terms. We introduce a multigrid decomposition technique that accelerates the convergence of gradient-based methods for optimization problems with parameters on a grid. We incorporate this multigrid technique to the ODIL (Optimizing a DIscrete Loss) framework. The multiresolution ODIL (mODIL) accelerates by an order of magnitude the original formalism and improves the avoidance of local minima. Moreover, mODIL accommodates the use of automatic differentiation for calculating the gradients of the loss function, thus facilitating the implementation of the framework. We demonstrate the capabilities of mODIL on a variety of inverse and flow reconstruction problems: solution reconstruction for the Burgers equation, inferring conductivity from temperature measurements, and inferring the body shape from wake velocity measurements in three dimensions. We also provide a comparative study with the related, popular Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) method. We demonstrate that mODIL has three to five orders of magnitude lower computational cost than PINNs in benchmark problems including simple PDEs and lid-driven cavity problems. Our results suggest that mODIL is a very potent, fast and consistent method for solving inverse problems in fluid mechanics.
We study the binary and continuous negative-margin perceptrons as simple non-convex neural network models learning random rules and associations. We analyze the geometry of the landscape of solutions in both models and find important similarities and differences. Both models exhibit subdominant minimizers which are extremely flat and wide. These minimizers coexist with a background of dominant solutions which are composed by an exponential number of algorithmically inaccessible small clusters for the binary case (the frozen 1-RSB phase) or a hierarchical structure of clusters of different sizes for the spherical case (the full RSB phase). In both cases, when a certain threshold in constraint density is crossed, the local entropy of the wide flat minima becomes non-monotonic, indicating a break-up of the space of robust solutions into disconnected components. This has a strong impact on the behavior of algorithms in binary models, which cannot access the remaining isolated clusters. For the spherical case the behaviour is different, since even beyond the disappearance of the wide flat minima the remaining solutions are shown to always be surrounded by a large number of other solutions at any distance, up to capacity. Indeed, we exhibit numerical evidence that algorithms seem to find solutions up to the SAT/UNSAT transition, that we compute here using an 1RSB approximation. For both models, the generalization performance as a learning device is shown to be greatly improved by the existence of wide flat minimizers even when trained in the highly underconstrained regime of very negative margins.
In this paper, we present a model describing the collective motion of birds. We explore the dynamic relationship between followers and leaders, wherein a select few agents, known as leaders, can initiate spontaneous changes in direction without being influenced by external factors like predators. Starting at the microscopic level, we develop a kinetic model that characterizes the behaviour of large crowds with transient leadership. One significant challenge lies in managing topological interactions, as identifying nearest neighbors in extensive systems can be computationally expensive. To address this, we propose a novel stochastic particle method to simulate the mesoscopic dynamics and reduce the computational cost of identifying closer agents from quadratic to logarithmic complexity using a $k$-nearest neighbours search algorithm with a binary tree. Lastly, we conduct various numerical experiments for different scenarios to validate the algorithm's effectiveness and investigate collective dynamics in both two and three dimensions.
Trajectory data collection is a common task with many applications in our daily lives. Analyzing trajectory data enables service providers to enhance their services, which ultimately benefits users. However, directly collecting trajectory data may give rise to privacy-related issues that cannot be ignored. Local differential privacy (LDP), as the de facto privacy protection standard in a decentralized setting, enables users to perturb their trajectories locally and provides a provable privacy guarantee. Existing approaches to private trajectory data collection in a local setting typically use relaxed versions of LDP, which cannot provide a strict privacy guarantee, or require some external knowledge that is impractical to obtain and update in a timely manner. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel trajectory perturbation mechanism that relies solely on an underlying location set and satisfies pure $\epsilon$-LDP to provide a stringent privacy guarantee. In the proposed mechanism, each point's adjacent direction information in the trajectory is used in its perturbation process. Such information serves as an effective clue to connect neighboring points and can be used to restrict the possible region of a perturbed point in order to enhance utility. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to use direction information for trajectory perturbation under LDP. Furthermore, based on this mechanism, we present an anchor-based method that adaptively restricts the region of each perturbed trajectory, thereby significantly boosting performance without violating the privacy constraint. Extensive experiments on both real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed mechanisms.
Consider the community detection problem in random hypergraphs under the non-uniform hypergraph stochastic block model (HSBM), where each hyperedge appears independently with some given probability depending only on the labels of its vertices. We establish, for the first time in the literature, a sharp threshold for exact recovery under this non-uniform case, subject to minor constraints; in particular, we consider the model with multiple communities ($K \geq 2$). One crucial point here is that by aggregating information from all the uniform layers, we may obtain exact recovery even in cases when this may appear impossible if each layer were considered alone. Two efficient algorithms that successfully achieve exact recovery above the threshold are provided. The theoretical analysis of our algorithms relies on the concentration and regularization of the adjacency matrix for non-uniform random hypergraphs, which could be of independent interest. We also address some open problems regarding parameter knowledge and estimation.
In the absence of explicit or tractable likelihoods, Bayesians often resort to approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for inference. Our work bridges ABC with deep neural implicit samplers based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) and adversarial variational Bayes. Both ABC and GANs compare aspects of observed and fake data to simulate from posteriors and likelihoods, respectively. We develop a Bayesian GAN (B-GAN) sampler that directly targets the posterior by solving an adversarial optimization problem. B-GAN is driven by a deterministic mapping learned on the ABC reference by conditional GANs. Once the mapping has been trained, iid posterior samples are obtained by filtering noise at a negligible additional cost. We propose two post-processing local refinements using (1) data-driven proposals with importance reweighting, and (2) variational Bayes. We support our findings with frequentist-Bayesian results, showing that the typical total variation distance between the true and approximate posteriors converges to zero for certain neural network generators and discriminators. Our findings on simulated data show highly competitive performance relative to some of the most recent likelihood-free posterior simulators.
The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.
This paper addresses the difficulty of forecasting multiple financial time series (TS) conjointly using deep neural networks (DNN). We investigate whether DNN-based models could forecast these TS more efficiently by learning their representation directly. To this end, we make use of the dynamic factor graph (DFG) from that we enhance by proposing a novel variable-length attention-based mechanism to render it memory-augmented. Using this mechanism, we propose an unsupervised DNN architecture for multivariate TS forecasting that allows to learn and take advantage of the relationships between these TS. We test our model on two datasets covering 19 years of investment funds activities. Our experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms significantly typical DNN-based and statistical models at forecasting their 21-day price trajectory.
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