Diabetes is a global health priority, especially in low- and-middle-income countries, where over 50% of premature deaths are attributed to high blood glucose. Several studies have demonstrated the feasibility of using Community Health Worker (CHW) programs to provide affordable and culturally tailored solutions for early detection and management of diabetes. Yet, scalable models to design and implement CHW programs while accounting for screening, management, and patient enrollment decisions have not been proposed. We introduce an optimization framework to determine personalized CHW visits that maximize glycemic control at a community-level. Our framework explicitly models the trade-off between screening new patients and providing management visits to individuals who are already enrolled in treatment. We account for patients' motivational states, which affect their decisions to enroll or drop out of treatment and, therefore, the effectiveness of the intervention. We incorporate these decisions by modeling patients as utility-maximizing agents within a bi-level provider problem that we solve using approximate dynamic programming. By estimating patients' health and motivational states, our model builds visit plans that account for patients' tradeoffs when deciding to enroll in treatment, leading to reduced dropout rates and improved resource allocation. We apply our approach to generate CHW visit plans using operational data from a social enterprise serving low-income neighborhoods in urban areas of India. Through extensive simulation experiments, we find that our framework requires up to 73.4% less capacity than the best naive policy to achieve the same performance in terms of glycemic control. Our experiments also show that our solution algorithm can improve upon naive policies by up to 124.5% using the same CHW capacity.
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We propose and analyze an approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm for the matrix tensor product model, which is a generalization of the standard spiked matrix models that allows for multiple types of pairwise observations over a collection of latent variables. A key innovation for this algorithm is a method for optimally weighing and combining multiple estimates in each iteration. Building upon an AMP convergence theorem for non-separable functions, we prove a state evolution for non-separable functions that provides an asymptotically exact description of its performance in the high-dimensional limit. We leverage this state evolution result to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for recovery of the signal of interest. Such conditions depend on the singular values of a linear operator derived from an appropriate generalization of a signal-to-noise ratio for our model. Our results recover as special cases a number of recently proposed methods for contextual models (e.g., covariate assisted clustering) as well as inhomogeneous noise models.
This paper examines asymmetric and time-varying dependency structures between financial returns, using a novel approach consisting of a combination of regime-switching models and the local Gaussian correlation (LGC). We propose an LGC-based bootstrap test for whether the dependence structure in financial returns across different regimes is equal. We examine this test in a Monte Carlo study, where it shows good level and power properties. We argue that this approach is more intuitive than competing approaches, typically combining regime-switching models with copula theory. Furthermore, the LGC is a semi-parametric approach, hence avoids any parametric specification of the dependence structure. We illustrate our approach using returns from the US-UK stock markets and the US stock and government bond markets. Using a two-regime model for the US-UK stock returns, the test rejects equality of the dependence structure in the two regimes. Furthermore, we find evidence of lower tail dependence in the regime associated with financial downturns in the LGC structure. For a three-regime model fitted to US stock and bond returns, the test rejects equality of the dependence structures between all regime pairs. Furthermore, we find that the LGC has a primarily positive relationship in the time period 1980-2000, mostly a negative relationship from 2000 and onwards. In addition, the regime associated with bear markets indicates less, but asymmetric dependence, clearly documenting the loss of diversification benefits in times of crisis.
Prototype-based meta-learning has emerged as a powerful technique for addressing few-shot learning challenges. However, estimating a deterministic prototype using a simple average function from a limited number of examples remains a fragile process. To overcome this limitation, we introduce ProtoDiff, a novel framework that leverages a task-guided diffusion model during the meta-training phase to gradually generate prototypes, thereby providing efficient class representations. Specifically, a set of prototypes is optimized to achieve per-task prototype overfitting, enabling accurately obtaining the overfitted prototypes for individual tasks. Furthermore, we introduce a task-guided diffusion process within the prototype space, enabling the meta-learning of a generative process that transitions from a vanilla prototype to an overfitted prototype. ProtoDiff gradually generates task-specific prototypes from random noise during the meta-test stage, conditioned on the limited samples available for the new task. Furthermore, to expedite training and enhance ProtoDiff's performance, we propose the utilization of residual prototype learning, which leverages the sparsity of the residual prototype. We conduct thorough ablation studies to demonstrate its ability to accurately capture the underlying prototype distribution and enhance generalization. The new state-of-the-art performance on within-domain, cross-domain, and few-task few-shot classification further substantiates the benefit of ProtoDiff.
The detection of hate speech in political discourse is a critical issue, and this becomes even more challenging in low-resource languages. To address this issue, we introduce a new dataset named IEHate, which contains 11,457 manually annotated Hindi tweets related to the Indian Assembly Election Campaign from November 1, 2021, to March 9, 2022. We performed a detailed analysis of the dataset, focusing on the prevalence of hate speech in political communication and the different forms of hateful language used. Additionally, we benchmark the dataset using a range of machine learning, deep learning, and transformer-based algorithms. Our experiments reveal that the performance of these models can be further improved, highlighting the need for more advanced techniques for hate speech detection in low-resource languages. In particular, the relatively higher score of human evaluation over algorithms emphasizes the importance of utilizing both human and automated approaches for effective hate speech moderation. Our IEHate dataset can serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners working on developing and evaluating hate speech detection techniques in low-resource languages. Overall, our work underscores the importance of addressing the challenges of identifying and mitigating hate speech in political discourse, particularly in the context of low-resource languages. The dataset and resources for this work are made available at //github.com/Farhan-jafri/Indian-Election.
In a world increasingly reliant on artificial intelligence, it is more important than ever to consider the ethical implications of artificial intelligence on humanity. One key under-explored challenge is labeler bias, which can create inherently biased datasets for training and subsequently lead to inaccurate or unfair decisions in healthcare, employment, education, and law enforcement. Hence, we conducted a study to investigate and measure the existence of labeler bias using images of people from different ethnicities and sexes in a labeling task. Our results show that participants possess stereotypes that influence their decision-making process and that labeler demographics impact assigned labels. We also discuss how labeler bias influences datasets and, subsequently, the models trained on them. Overall, a high degree of transparency must be maintained throughout the entire artificial intelligence training process to identify and correct biases in the data as early as possible.
Text-to-image diffusion models have advanced towards more controllable generation via supporting various image conditions (e.g., depth map) beyond text. However, these models are learned based on the premise of perfect alignment between the text and image conditions. If this alignment is not satisfied, the final output could be either dominated by one condition, or ambiguity may arise, failing to meet user expectations. To address this issue, we present a training-free approach called "Decompose and Realign'' to further improve the controllability of existing models when provided with partially aligned conditions. The ``Decompose'' phase separates conditions based on pair relationships, computing scores individually for each pair. This ensures that each pair no longer has conflicting conditions. The "Realign'' phase aligns these independently calculated scores via a cross-attention mechanism to avoid new conflicts when combing them back. Both qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in handling unaligned conditions, which performs favorably against recent methods and more importantly adds flexibility to the controllable image generation process.
Modern DDoS defense systems rely on probabilistic monitoring algorithms to identify flows that exceed a volume threshold and should thus be penalized. Commonly, classic sketch algorithms are considered sufficiently accurate for usage in DDoS defense. However, as we show in this paper, these algorithms achieve poor detection accuracy under burst-flood attacks, i.e., volumetric DDoS attacks composed of a swarm of medium-rate sub-second traffic bursts. Under this challenging attack pattern, traditional sketch algorithms can only detect a high share of the attack bursts by incurring a large number of false positives. In this paper, we present ALBUS, a probabilistic monitoring algorithm that overcomes the inherent limitations of previous schemes: ALBUS is highly effective at detecting large bursts while reporting no legitimate flows, and therefore improves on prior work regarding both recall and precision. Besides improving accuracy, ALBUS scales to high traffic rates, which we demonstrate with an FPGA implementation, and is suitable for programmable switches, which we showcase with a P4 implementation.
Reinforcement Learning has received wide interest due to its success in competitive games. Yet, its adoption in everyday applications is limited (e.g. industrial, home, healthcare, etc.). In this paper, we address this limitation by presenting a framework for planning over offline skills and solving complex tasks in real-world environments. Our framework is comprised of three modules that together enable the agent to learn from previously collected data and generalize over it to solve long-horizon tasks. We demonstrate our approach by testing it on a robotic arm that is required to solve complex tasks.
The estimation of unknown parameters in simulations, also known as calibration, is crucial for practical management of epidemics and prediction of pandemic risk. A simple yet widely used approach is to estimate the parameters by minimizing the sum of the squared distances between actual observations and simulation outputs. It is shown in this paper that this method is inefficient, particularly when the epidemic models are developed based on certain simplifications of reality, also known as imperfect models which are commonly used in practice. To address this issue, a new estimator is introduced that is asymptotically consistent, has a smaller estimation variance than the least squares estimator, and achieves the semiparametric efficiency. Numerical studies are performed to examine the finite sample performance. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic for 20 countries based on the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model with both deterministic and stochastic simulations. The estimation of the parameters, including the basic reproduction number and the average incubation period, reveal the risk of disease outbreaks in each country and provide insights to the design of public health interventions.
This paper focuses on two fundamental tasks of graph analysis: community detection and node representation learning, which capture the global and local structures of graphs, respectively. In the current literature, these two tasks are usually independently studied while they are actually highly correlated. We propose a probabilistic generative model called vGraph to learn community membership and node representation collaboratively. Specifically, we assume that each node can be represented as a mixture of communities, and each community is defined as a multinomial distribution over nodes. Both the mixing coefficients and the community distribution are parameterized by the low-dimensional representations of the nodes and communities. We designed an effective variational inference algorithm which regularizes the community membership of neighboring nodes to be similar in the latent space. Experimental results on multiple real-world graphs show that vGraph is very effective in both community detection and node representation learning, outperforming many competitive baselines in both tasks. We show that the framework of vGraph is quite flexible and can be easily extended to detect hierarchical communities.
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