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In the dominant paradigm for designing equitable machine learning systems, one works to ensure that model predictions satisfy various fairness criteria, such as parity in error rates across race, gender, and other legally protected traits. That approach, however, typically ignores the downstream decisions and outcomes that predictions affect, and, as a result, can induce unexpected harms. Here we present an alternative framework for fairness that directly anticipates the consequences of decisions. Stakeholders first specify preferences over the possible outcomes of an algorithmically informed decision-making process. For example, lenders may prefer extending credit to those most likely to repay a loan, while also preferring similar lending rates across neighborhoods. One then searches the space of decision policies to maximize the specified utility. We develop and describe a method for efficiently learning these optimal policies from data for a large family of expressive utility functions, facilitating a more holistic approach to equitable decision-making.

Age-related macular degeneration is a leading cause of blindness worldwide and is one of many limitations to independent driving among old adults. Highly autonomous vehicles present a prospective solution for those who are no longer capable of driving due to low vision. However, accessibility issues must be addressed to create a safe and pleasant experience for this group of users so that it allows them to maintain an appropriate level of situational awareness and a sense of control during driving. In this study, we made use of a human-centered design process consisting of five stages - empathize, define, ideate, prototype, and test. We designed a prototype to aid old adults with age-related macular degeneration to travel with a necessary level of situational awareness and remain in control while riding in a highly or fully autonomous vehicle. The final design prototype includes a voice-activated navigation system with three levels of details to bolster situational awareness, a 360 degree in-vehicle camera to detect both the passenger and objects around the vehicle, a retractable microphone for the passenger to be easily registered in the vehicle while speaking, and a physical button on the console-side of the right and left front seats to manually activate the navigation system.

The ability to accurately predict the opponent's behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of robotic systems in interactive settings, such as human-robot interaction and multi-robot teaming tasks. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as opponent's goals, attention, and willingness to cooperate. Dual control theory addresses this challenge by treating unknown parameters of a predictive model as hidden states and inferring their values at runtime using information gathered during system operation. While able to optimally and automatically trade off exploration and exploitation, dual control is computationally intractable for general interactive motion planning. In this paper, we present a novel algorithmic approach to enable active uncertainty reduction for interactive motion planning based on the implicit dual control paradigm. Our approach relies on sampling-based approximation of stochastic dynamic programming, leading to a model predictive control problem. The resulting policy is shown to preserve the dual control effect for a broad class of predictive models with both continuous and categorical uncertainty. To ensure the safe operation of the interacting agents, we leverage a supervisory control scheme, oftentimes referred to as ``shielding'', which overrides the ego agent's dual control policy with a safety fallback strategy when a safety-critical event is imminent. We then augment the dual control framework with an improved variant of the recently proposed shielding-aware robust planning scheme, which proactively balances the nominal planning performance with the risk of high-cost emergency maneuvers triggered by low-probability opponent's behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with both simulated driving examples and hardware experiments using 1/10 scale autonomous vehicles.

Concept shift is a prevailing problem in natural tasks like medical image segmentation where samples usually come from different subpopulations with variant correlations between features and labels. One common type of concept shift in medical image segmentation is the "information imbalance" between label-sparse samples with few (if any) segmentation labels and label-dense samples with plentiful labeled pixels. Existing distributionally robust algorithms have focused on adaptively truncating/down-weighting the "less informative" (i.e., label-sparse in our context) samples. To exploit data features of label-sparse samples more efficiently, we propose an adaptively weighted online optimization algorithm -- AdaWAC -- to incorporate data augmentation consistency regularization in sample reweighting. Our method introduces a set of trainable weights to balance the supervised loss and unsupervised consistency regularization of each sample separately. At the saddle point of the underlying objective, the weights assign label-dense samples to the supervised loss and label-sparse samples to the unsupervised consistency regularization. We provide a convergence guarantee by recasting the optimization as online mirror descent on a saddle point problem. Our empirical results demonstrate that AdaWAC not only enhances the segmentation performance and sample efficiency but also improves the robustness to concept shift on various medical image segmentation tasks with different UNet-style backbones.

In small area estimation, it is sometimes necessary to use model-based methods to produce estimates in areas with little or no data. In official statistics, we often require that some aggregate of small area estimates agree with a national estimate for internal consistency purposes. Enforcing this agreement is referred to as benchmarking, and while methods currently exist to perform benchmarking, few are ideal for applications with non-normal outcomes and benchmarks with uncertainty. Fully Bayesian benchmarking is a theoretically appealing approach insofar as we can obtain posterior distributions conditional on a benchmarking constraint. However, existing implementations may be computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we critically review benchmarking methods in the context of small area estimation in low- and middle-income countries with binary outcomes and uncertain benchmarks, and propose a novel approach in which an unbenchmarked method that produces area-level samples can be combined with a rejection sampler or Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to produce benchmarked posterior distributions in a computationally efficient way. To illustrate the flexibility and efficiency of our approach, we provide comparisons to an existing benchmarking approach in a simulation, and applications to HIV prevalence and under-5 mortality estimation. Code implementing our methodology is available in the R package stbench.

Humans and other intelligent agents often rely on collective decision making based on an intuition that groups outperform individuals. However, at present, we lack a complete theoretical understanding of when groups perform better. Here we examine performance in collective decision-making in the context of a real-world citizen science task environment in which individuals with manipulated differences in task-relevant training collaborated. We find 1) dyads gradually improve in performance but do not experience a collective benefit compared to individuals in most situations; 2) the cost of coordination to efficiency and speed that results when switching to a dyadic context after training individually is consistently larger than the leverage of having a partner, even if they are expertly trained in that task; and 3) on the most complex tasks having an additional expert in the dyad who is adequately trained improves accuracy. These findings highlight that the extent of training received by an individual, the complexity of the task at hand, and the desired performance indicator are all critical factors that need to be accounted for when weighing up the benefits of collective decision-making.

We study statistical inference on the similarity/distance between two time-series under uncertain environment by considering a statistical hypothesis test on the distance obtained from Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The sampling distribution of the DTW distance is too difficult to derive because it is obtained based on the solution of the DTW algorithm, which is complicated. To circumvent this difficulty, we propose to employ the conditional selective inference framework, which enables us to derive a valid inference method on the DTW distance. To our knowledge, this is the first method that can provide a valid p-value to quantify the statistical significance of the DTW distance, which is helpful for high-stake decision making such as abnormal time-series detection problems. We evaluate the performance of the proposed inference method on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Large Language Models (LLMs) handle physical commonsense information inadequately. As a result of being trained in a disembodied setting, LLMs often fail to predict an action's outcome in a given environment. However, predicting the effects of an action before it is executed is crucial in planning, where coherent sequences of actions are often needed to achieve a goal. Therefore, we introduce the multi-modal task of predicting the outcomes of actions solely from realistic sensory inputs (images and text). Next, we extend an LLM to model latent representations of objects to better predict action outcomes in an environment. We show that multi-modal models can capture physical commonsense when augmented with visual information. Finally, we evaluate our model's performance on novel actions and objects and find that combining modalities help models to generalize and learn physical commonsense reasoning better.

Modern video streaming services require quality assurance of the presented audiovisual material. Quality assurance mechanisms allow streaming platforms to provide quality levels that are considered sufficient to yield user satisfaction, with the least possible amount of data transferred. A variety of measures and approaches have been developed to control video quality, e.g., by adapting it to network conditions. These include objective matrices of the quality and thresholds identified by means of subjective perceptual judgments. The former group of matrices has recently gained the attention of (multi)media researchers. They call this area of study ``Quality of Experience'' (QoE). In this paper, we present a review of QoE's theoretical models together with a discussion of their properties and implications for the field. We argue that most of them represent the bottom-up approach to modeling. Such models focus on describing as many variables as possible, but with a limited ability to investigate the causal relationship between them; therefore, the applicability of the findings in practice is limited. To advance the field, we therefore propose a structural, top-down model of video QoE that describes causal relationships among variables. We hope that our framework will facilitate designing comparable experiments in the domain.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.