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Binwise Variance Scaling (BVS) has recently been proposed as a post hoc recalibration method for prediction uncertainties of machine learning regression problems that is able of more efficient corrections than uniform variance (or temperature) scaling. The original version of BVS uses uncertainty-based binning, which is aimed to improve calibration conditionally on uncertainty, i.e. consistency. I explore here several adaptations of BVS, in particular with alternative loss functions and a binning scheme based on an input-feature (X) in order to improve adaptivity, i.e. calibration conditional on X. The performances of BVS and its proposed variants are tested on a benchmark dataset for the prediction of atomization energies and compared to the results of isotonic regression.

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Data science and artificial intelligence have become an indispensable part of scientific research. While such methods rely on high-quality and large quantities of machine-readable scientific data, the current scientific data infrastructure faces significant challenges that limit effective data curation and sharing. These challenges include insufficient return on investment for researchers to share quality data, logistical difficulties in maintaining long-term data repositories, and the absence of standardized methods for evaluating the relative importance of various datasets. To address these issues, this paper presents the Lennard Jones Token, a blockchain-based proof-of-concept solution implemented on the Ethereum network. The token system incentivizes users to submit optimized structures of Lennard Jones particles by offering token rewards, while also charging for access to these valuable structures. Utilizing smart contracts, the system automates the evaluation of submitted data, ensuring that only structures with energies lower than those in the existing database for a given cluster size are rewarded. The paper explores the details of the Lennard Jones Token as a proof of concept and proposes future blockchain-based tokens aimed at enhancing the curation and sharing of scientific data.

The neural architectures of language models are becoming increasingly complex, especially that of Transformers, based on the attention mechanism. Although their application to numerous natural language processing tasks has proven to be very fruitful, they continue to be models with little or no interpretability and explainability. One of the tasks for which they are best suited is the encoding of the contextual sense of words using contextualized embeddings. In this paper we propose a transparent, interpretable, and linguistically motivated strategy for encoding the contextual sense of words by modeling semantic compositionality. Particular attention is given to dependency relations and semantic notions such as selection preferences and paradigmatic classes. A partial implementation of the proposed model is carried out and compared with Transformer-based architectures for a given semantic task, namely the similarity calculation of word senses in context. The results obtained show that it is possible to be competitive with linguistically motivated models instead of using the black boxes underlying complex neural architectures.

A common concern in non-inferiority (NI) trials is that non adherence due, for example, to poor study conduct can make treatment arms artificially similar. Because intention to treat analyses can be anti-conservative in this situation, per protocol analyses are sometimes recommended. However, such advice does not consider the estimands framework, nor the risk of bias from per protocol analyses. We therefore sought to update the above guidance using the estimands framework, and compare estimators to improve on the performance of per protocol analyses. We argue the main threat to validity of NI trials is the occurrence of trial specific intercurrent events (IEs), that is, IEs which occur in a trial setting, but would not occur in practice. To guard against erroneous conclusions of non inferiority, we suggest an estimand using a hypothetical strategy for trial specific IEs should be employed, with handling of other non trial specific IEs chosen based on clinical considerations. We provide an overview of estimators that could be used to estimate a hypothetical estimand, including inverse probability weighting (IPW), and two instrumental variable approaches (one using an informative Bayesian prior on the effect of standard treatment, and one using a treatment by covariate interaction as an instrument). We compare them, using simulation in the setting of all or nothing compliance in two active treatment arms, and conclude both IPW and the instrumental variable method using a Bayesian prior are potentially useful approaches, with the choice between them depending on which assumptions are most plausible for a given trial.

A prompt is a sequence of symbol or tokens, selected from a vocabulary according to some rule, which is prepended/concatenated to a textual query. A key problem is how to select the sequence of tokens: in this paper we formulate it as a combinatorial optimization problem. The high dimensionality of the token space com-pounded by the length of the prompt sequence requires a very efficient solution. In this paper we propose a Bayesian optimization method, executed in a continuous em-bedding of the combinatorial space. In this paper we focus on hard prompt tuning (HPT) which directly searches for discrete tokens to be added to the text input with-out requiring access to the large language model (LLM) and can be used also when LLM is available only as a black-box. This is critically important if LLMs are made available in the Model as a Service (MaaS) manner as in GPT-4. The current manu-script is focused on the optimization of discrete prompts for classification tasks. The discrete prompts give rise to difficult combinatorial optimization problem which easily become intractable given the dimension of the token space in realistic applications. The optimization method considered in this paper is Bayesian optimization (BO) which has become the dominant approach in black-box optimization for its sample efficiency along with its modular structure and versatility. In this paper we use BoTorch, a library for Bayesian optimization research built on top of pyTorch. Albeit preliminary and obtained using a 'vanilla' version of BO, the experiments on RoB-ERTa on six benchmarks, show a good performance across a variety of tasks and enable an analysis of the tradeoff between size of the search space, accuracy and wall clock time.

Inspired by the success of WaveNet in multi-subject speech synthesis, we propose a novel neural network based on causal convolutions for multi-subject motion modeling and generation. The network can capture the intrinsic characteristics of the motion of different subjects, such as the influence of skeleton scale variation on motion style. Moreover, after fine-tuning the network using a small motion dataset for a novel skeleton that is not included in the training dataset, it is able to synthesize high-quality motions with a personalized style for the novel skeleton. The experimental results demonstrate that our network can model the intrinsic characteristics of motions well and can be applied to various motion modeling and synthesis tasks.

The relationship between the thermodynamic and computational characteristics of dynamical physical systems has been a major theoretical interest since at least the 19th century, and has been of increasing practical importance as the energetic cost of digital devices has exploded over the last half century. One of the most important thermodynamic features of real-world computers is that they operate very far from thermal equilibrium, in finite time, with many quickly (co-)evolving degrees of freedom. Such computers also must almost always obey multiple physical constraints on how they work. For example, all modern digital computers are periodic processes, governed by a global clock. Another example is that many computers are modular, hierarchical systems, with strong restrictions on the connectivity of their subsystems. This properties hold both for naturally occurring computers, like brains or Eukaryotic cells, as well as digital systems. These features of real-world computers are absent in 20th century analyses of the thermodynamics of computational processes, which focused on quasi-statically slow processes. However, the field of stochastic thermodynamics has been developed in the last few decades - and it provides the formal tools for analyzing systems that have exactly these features of real-world computers. We argue here that these tools, together with other tools currently being developed in stochastic thermodynamics, may help us understand at a far deeper level just how the fundamental physical properties of dynamic systems are related to the computation that they perform.

We present ParrotTTS, a modularized text-to-speech synthesis model leveraging disentangled self-supervised speech representations. It can train a multi-speaker variant effectively using transcripts from a single speaker. ParrotTTS adapts to a new language in low resource setup and generalizes to languages not seen while training the self-supervised backbone. Moreover, without training on bilingual or parallel examples, ParrotTTS can transfer voices across languages while preserving the speaker specific characteristics, e.g., synthesizing fluent Hindi speech using a French speaker's voice and accent. We present extensive results in monolingual and multi-lingual scenarios. ParrotTTS outperforms state-of-the-art multi-lingual TTS models using only a fraction of paired data as latter.

Prior works have shown that semi-supervised learning algorithms can leverage unlabeled data to improve over the labeled sample complexity of supervised learning (SL) algorithms. However, existing theoretical analyses focus on regimes where the unlabeled data is sufficient to learn a good decision boundary using unsupervised learning (UL) alone. This begs the question: Can SSL algorithms simultaneously improve upon both UL and SL? To this end, we derive a tight lower bound for 2-Gaussian mixture models that explicitly depends on the labeled and the unlabeled dataset size as well as the signal-to-noise ratio of the mixture distribution. Surprisingly, our result implies that no SSL algorithm can improve upon the minimax-optimal statistical error rates of SL or UL algorithms for these distributions. Nevertheless, we show empirically on real-world data that SSL algorithms can still outperform UL and SL methods. Therefore, our work suggests that, while proving performance gains for SSL algorithms is possible, it requires careful tracking of constants.

Pose and motion priors are crucial for recovering realistic and accurate human motion from noisy observations. Substantial progress has been made on pose and shape estimation from images, and recent works showed impressive results using priors to refine frame-wise predictions. However, a lot of motion priors only model transitions between consecutive poses and are used in time-consuming optimization procedures, which is problematic for many applications requiring real-time motion capture. We introduce Motion-DVAE, a motion prior to capture the short-term dependencies of human motion. As part of the dynamical variational autoencoder (DVAE) models family, Motion-DVAE combines the generative capability of VAE models and the temporal modeling of recurrent architectures. Together with Motion-DVAE, we introduce an unsupervised learned denoising method unifying regression- and optimization-based approaches in a single framework for real-time 3D human pose estimation. Experiments show that the proposed approach reaches competitive performance with state-of-the-art methods while being much faster.

As large language models (LLMs) become more capable, there is growing excitement about the possibility of using LLMs as proxies for humans in real-world tasks where subjective labels are desired, such as in surveys and opinion polling. One widely-cited barrier to the adoption of LLMs is their sensitivity to prompt wording - but interestingly, humans also display sensitivities to instruction changes in the form of response biases. As such, we argue that if LLMs are going to be used to approximate human opinions, it is necessary to investigate the extent to which LLMs also reflect human response biases, if at all. In this work, we use survey design as a case study, where human response biases caused by permutations in wordings of "prompts" have been extensively studied. Drawing from prior work in social psychology, we design a dataset and propose a framework to evaluate whether LLMs exhibit human-like response biases in survey questionnaires. Our comprehensive evaluation of nine models shows that popular open and commercial LLMs generally fail to reflect human-like behavior. These inconsistencies tend to be more prominent in models that have been instruction fine-tuned. Furthermore, even if a model shows a significant change in the same direction as humans, we find that perturbations that are not meant to elicit significant changes in humans may also result in a similar change. These results highlight the potential pitfalls of using LLMs to substitute humans in parts of the annotation pipeline, and further underscore the importance of finer-grained characterizations of model behavior. Our code, dataset, and collected samples are available at //github.com/lindiatjuatja/BiasMonkey

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