"What-if" questions are intuitively generated and commonly asked during the design process. Engineers and architects need to inherently conduct design decisions, progressing from one phase to another. They either use empirical domain experience, simulations, or data-driven methods to acquire consequential feedback. We take an example from an interdisciplinary domain of energy-efficient building design to argue that the current methods for decision support have limitations or deficiencies in four aspects: parametric independency identification, gaps in integrating knowledge-based and data-driven approaches, less explicit model interpretation, and ambiguous decision support boundaries. In this study, we first clarify the nature of dynamic experience in individuals and constant principal knowledge in design. Subsequently, we introduce causal inference into the domain. A four-step process is proposed to discover and analyze parametric dependencies in a mathematically rigorous and computationally efficient manner by identifying the causal diagram with interventions. The causal diagram provides a nexus for integrating domain knowledge with data-driven methods, providing interpretability and testability against the domain experience within the design space. Extracting causal structures from the data is close to the nature design reasoning process. As an illustration, we applied the properties of the proposed estimators through simulations. The paper concludes with a feasibility study demonstrating the proposed framework's realization.
In model extraction attacks, adversaries can steal a machine learning model exposed via a public API by repeatedly querying it and adjusting their own model based on obtained predictions. To prevent model stealing, existing defenses focus on detecting malicious queries, truncating, or distorting outputs, thus necessarily introducing a tradeoff between robustness and model utility for legitimate users. Instead, we propose to impede model extraction by requiring users to complete a proof-of-work before they can read the model's predictions. This deters attackers by greatly increasing (even up to 100x) the computational effort needed to leverage query access for model extraction. Since we calibrate the effort required to complete the proof-of-work to each query, this only introduces a slight overhead for regular users (up to 2x). To achieve this, our calibration applies tools from differential privacy to measure the information revealed by a query. Our method requires no modification of the victim model and can be applied by machine learning practitioners to guard their publicly exposed models against being easily stolen.
Although a recent shift has been made in the field of predictive process monitoring to use models from the explainable artificial intelligence field, the evaluation still occurs mainly through performance-based metrics, thus not accounting for the actionability and implications of the explanations. In this paper, we define explainability through the interpretability of the explanations and the faithfulness of the explainability model in the field of process outcome prediction. The introduced properties are analysed along the event, case, and control flow perspective which are typical for a process-based analysis. This allows comparing inherently created explanations with post-hoc explanations. We benchmark seven classifiers on thirteen real-life events logs, and these cover a range of transparent and non-transparent machine learning and deep learning models, further complemented with explainability techniques. Next, this paper contributes a set of guidelines named X-MOP which allows selecting the appropriate model based on the event log specifications, by providing insight into how the varying preprocessing, model complexity and explainability techniques typical in process outcome prediction influence the explainability of the model.
Inferring reward functions from human behavior is at the center of value alignment - aligning AI objectives with what we, humans, actually want. But doing so relies on models of how humans behave given their objectives. After decades of research in cognitive science, neuroscience, and behavioral economics, obtaining accurate human models remains an open research topic. This begs the question: how accurate do these models need to be in order for the reward inference to be accurate? On the one hand, if small errors in the model can lead to catastrophic error in inference, the entire framework of reward learning seems ill-fated, as we will never have perfect models of human behavior. On the other hand, if as our models improve, we can have a guarantee that reward accuracy also improves, this would show the benefit of more work on the modeling side. We study this question both theoretically and empirically. We do show that it is unfortunately possible to construct small adversarial biases in behavior that lead to arbitrarily large errors in the inferred reward. However, and arguably more importantly, we are also able to identify reasonable assumptions under which the reward inference error can be bounded linearly in the error in the human model. Finally, we verify our theoretical insights in discrete and continuous control tasks with simulated and human data.
The fifth generation of the Radio Access Network (RAN) has brought new services, technologies, and paradigms with the corresponding societal benefits. However, the energy consumption of 5G networks is today a concern. In recent years, the design of new methods for decreasing the RAN power consumption has attracted interest from both the research community and standardization bodies, and many energy savings solutions have been proposed. However, there is still a need to understand the power consumption behavior of state-ofthe-art base station architectures, such as multi-carrier active antenna units (AAUs), as well as the impact of different network parameters. In this paper, we present a power consumption model for 5G AAUs based on artificial neural networks. We demonstrate that this model achieves good estimation performance, and it is able to capture the benefits of energy saving when dealing with the complexity of multi-carrier base stations architectures. Importantly, multiple experiments are carried out to show the advantage of designing a general model able to capture the power consumption behaviors of different types of AAUs. Finally, we provide an analysis of the model scalability and the training data requirements.
Autonomous driving has achieved a significant milestone in research and development over the last decade. There is increasing interest in the field as the deployment of self-operating vehicles on roads promises safer and more ecologically friendly transportation systems. With the rise of computationally powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, autonomous vehicles can sense their environment with high precision, make safe real-time decisions, and operate more reliably without human interventions. However, intelligent decision-making in autonomous cars is not generally understandable by humans in the current state of the art, and such deficiency hinders this technology from being socially acceptable. Hence, aside from making safe real-time decisions, the AI systems of autonomous vehicles also need to explain how these decisions are constructed in order to be regulatory compliant across many jurisdictions. Our study sheds a comprehensive light on developing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approaches for autonomous vehicles. In particular, we make the following contributions. First, we provide a thorough overview of the present gaps with respect to explanations in the state-of-the-art autonomous vehicle industry. We then show the taxonomy of explanations and explanation receivers in this field. Thirdly, we propose a framework for an architecture of end-to-end autonomous driving systems and justify the role of XAI in both debugging and regulating such systems. Finally, as future research directions, we provide a field guide on XAI approaches for autonomous driving that can improve operational safety and transparency towards achieving public approval by regulators, manufacturers, and all engaged stakeholders.
The rapid changes in the finance industry due to the increasing amount of data have revolutionized the techniques on data processing and data analysis and brought new theoretical and computational challenges. In contrast to classical stochastic control theory and other analytical approaches for solving financial decision-making problems that heavily reply on model assumptions, new developments from reinforcement learning (RL) are able to make full use of the large amount of financial data with fewer model assumptions and to improve decisions in complex financial environments. This survey paper aims to review the recent developments and use of RL approaches in finance. We give an introduction to Markov decision processes, which is the setting for many of the commonly used RL approaches. Various algorithms are then introduced with a focus on value and policy based methods that do not require any model assumptions. Connections are made with neural networks to extend the framework to encompass deep RL algorithms. Our survey concludes by discussing the application of these RL algorithms in a variety of decision-making problems in finance, including optimal execution, portfolio optimization, option pricing and hedging, market making, smart order routing, and robo-advising.
In contrast to batch learning where all training data is available at once, continual learning represents a family of methods that accumulate knowledge and learn continuously with data available in sequential order. Similar to the human learning process with the ability of learning, fusing, and accumulating new knowledge coming at different time steps, continual learning is considered to have high practical significance. Hence, continual learning has been studied in various artificial intelligence tasks. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the recent progress of continual learning in computer vision. In particular, the works are grouped by their representative techniques, including regularization, knowledge distillation, memory, generative replay, parameter isolation, and a combination of the above techniques. For each category of these techniques, both its characteristics and applications in computer vision are presented. At the end of this overview, several subareas, where continuous knowledge accumulation is potentially helpful while continual learning has not been well studied, are discussed.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
This paper serves as a survey of recent advances in large margin training and its theoretical foundations, mostly for (nonlinear) deep neural networks (DNNs) that are probably the most prominent machine learning models for large-scale data in the community over the past decade. We generalize the formulation of classification margins from classical research to latest DNNs, summarize theoretical connections between the margin, network generalization, and robustness, and introduce recent efforts in enlarging the margins for DNNs comprehensively. Since the viewpoint of different methods is discrepant, we categorize them into groups for ease of comparison and discussion in the paper. Hopefully, our discussions and overview inspire new research work in the community that aim to improve the performance of DNNs, and we also point to directions where the large margin principle can be verified to provide theoretical evidence why certain regularizations for DNNs function well in practice. We managed to shorten the paper such that the crucial spirit of large margin learning and related methods are better emphasized.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.