We present a new method for constructing valid covariance functions of Gaussian processes for spatial analysis in irregular, non-convex domains such as bodies of water. Standard covariance functions based on geodesic distances are not guaranteed to be positive definite on such domains, while existing non-Euclidean approaches fail to respect the partially Euclidean nature of these domains where the geodesic distance agrees with the Euclidean distances for some pairs of points. Using a visibility graph on the domain, we propose a class of covariance functions that preserve Euclidean-based covariances between points that are connected in the domain while incorporating the non-convex geometry of the domain via conditional independence relationships. We show that the proposed method preserves the partially Euclidean nature of the intrinsic geometry on the domain while maintaining validity (positive definiteness) and marginal stationarity of the covariance function over the entire parameter space, properties which are not always fulfilled by existing approaches to construct covariance functions on non-convex domains. We provide useful approximations to improve computational efficiency, resulting in a scalable algorithm. We compare the performance of our method with those of competing state-of-the-art methods using simulation studies on synthetic non-convex domains. The method is applied to data regarding acidity levels in the Chesapeake Bay, showing its potential for ecological monitoring in real-world spatial applications on irregular domains.
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In the literature on spatial point processes, there is an emerging challenge in studying marked point processes with points being labelled by functions. In this paper, we focus on point processes living on linear networks and, from distinct points of view, propose several marked summary characteristics that are of great use in studying the average association and dispersion of the function-valued marks. Through a simulation study, we evaluate the performance of our proposed marked summary characteristics, both when marks are independent and when some sort of spatial dependence is evident among them. Finally, we employ our proposed mark summary characteristics to study the spatial structure of urban cycling profiles in Vancouver, Canada.
A new approach based on censoring and moment criterion is introduced for parameter estimation of count distributions when the probability generating function is available even though a closed form of the probability mass function and/or finite moments do not exist.
One of the most promising applications of machine learning (ML) in computational physics is to accelerate the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). The key objective of ML-based PDE solvers is to output a sufficiently accurate solution faster than standard numerical methods, which are used as a baseline comparison. We first perform a systematic review of the ML-for-PDE solving literature. Of articles that use ML to solve a fluid-related PDE and claim to outperform a standard numerical method, we determine that 79% (60/76) compare to a weak baseline. Second, we find evidence that reporting biases, especially outcome reporting bias and publication bias, are widespread. We conclude that ML-for-PDE solving research is overoptimistic: weak baselines lead to overly positive results, while reporting biases lead to underreporting of negative results. To a large extent, these issues appear to be caused by factors similar to those of past reproducibility crises: researcher degrees of freedom and a bias towards positive results. We call for bottom-up cultural changes to minimize biased reporting as well as top-down structural reforms intended to reduce perverse incentives for doing so.
Shape-restricted inferences have exhibited empirical success in various applications with survival data. However, certain works fall short in providing a rigorous theoretical justification and an easy-to-use variance estimator with theoretical guarantee. Motivated by Deng et al. (2023), this paper delves into an additive and shape-restricted partially linear Cox model for right-censored data, where each additive component satisfies a specific shape restriction, encompassing monotonic increasing/decreasing and convexity/concavity. We systematically investigate the consistencies and convergence rates of the shape-restricted maximum partial likelihood estimator (SMPLE) of all the underlying parameters. We further establish the aymptotic normality and semiparametric effiency of the SMPLE for the linear covariate shift. To estimate the asymptotic variance, we propose an innovative data-splitting variance estimation method that boasts exceptional versatility and broad applicability. Our simulation results and an analysis of the Rotterdam Breast Cancer dataset demonstrate that the SMPLE has comparable performance with the maximum likelihood estimator under the Cox model when the Cox model is correct, and outperforms the latter and Huang (1999)'s method when the Cox model is violated or the hazard is nonsmooth. Meanwhile, the proposed variance estimation method usually leads to reliable interval estimates based on the SMPLE and its competitors.
A number of recent studies have proposed that linear representations are appropriate for solving nonlinear dynamical systems with quantum computers, which fundamentally act linearly on a wave function in a Hilbert space. Linear representations, such as the Koopman representation and Koopman von Neumann mechanics, have regained attention from the dynamical-systems research community. Here, we aim to present a unified theoretical framework, currently missing in the literature, with which one can compare and relate existing methods, their conceptual basis, and their representations. We also aim to show that, despite the fact that quantum simulation of nonlinear classical systems may be possible with such linear representations, a necessary projection into a feasible finite-dimensional space will in practice eventually induce numerical artifacts which can be hard to eliminate or even control. As a result, a practical, reliable and accurate way to use quantum computation for solving general nonlinear dynamical systems is still an open problem.
Discrete choice models with non-monotonic response functions are important in many areas of application, especially political sciences and marketing. This paper describes a novel unfolding model for binary data that allows for heavy-tailed shocks to the underlying utilities. One of our key contributions is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that requires little or no parameter tuning, fully explores the support of the posterior distribution, and can be used to fit various extensions of our core model that involve (Bayesian) hypothesis testing on the latent construct. Our empirical evaluations of the model and the associated algorithm suggest that they provide better complexity-adjusted fit to voting data from the United States House of Representatives.
We review some recent development in the theory of spatial extremes related to Pareto Processes and modeling of threshold exceedances. We provide theoretical background, methodology for modeling, simulation and inference as well as an illustration to wave height modelling. This preprint is an author version of a chapter to appear in a collaborative book.
We investigate the set of invariant idempotent probabilities for countable idempotent iterated function systems (IFS) defined in compact metric spaces. We demonstrate that, with constant weights, there exists a unique invariant idempotent probability. Utilizing Secelean's approach to countable IFSs, we introduce partially finite idempotent IFSs and prove that the sequence of invariant idempotent measures for these systems converges to the invariant measure of the original countable IFS. We then apply these results to approximate such measures with discrete systems, producing, in the one-dimensional case, data series whose Higuchi fractal dimension can be calculated. Finally, we provide numerical approximations for two-dimensional cases and discuss the application of generalized Higuchi dimensions in these scenarios.
Besides standard Lagrange interpolation, i.e., interpolation of target functions from scattered point evaluations, positive definite kernel functions are well-suited for the solution of more general reconstruction problems. This is due to the intrinsic structure of the underlying reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). In fact, kernel-based interpolation has been applied to the reconstruction of bivariate functions from scattered Radon samples in computerized tomography (cf. Iske, 2018) and, moreover, to the numerical solution of elliptic PDEs (cf. Wenzel et al., 2022). As shown in various previous contributions, numerical algorithms and theoretical results from kernel-based Lagrange interpolation can be transferred to more general interpolation problems. In particular, greedy point selection methods were studied in (Wenzel et al., 2022), for the special case of Sobolev kernels. In this paper, we aim to develop and analyze more general kernel-based interpolation methods, for less restrictive settings. To this end, we first provide convergence results for generalized interpolation under minimalistic assumptions on both the selected kernel and the target function. Finally, we prove convergence of popular greedy data selection algorithms for totally bounded sets of functionals. Supporting numerical results are provided for illustration.
This work explores multi-modal inference in a high-dimensional simplified model, analytically quantifying the performance gain of multi-modal inference over that of analyzing modalities in isolation. We present the Bayes-optimal performance and weak recovery thresholds in a model where the objective is to recover the latent structures from two noisy data matrices with correlated spikes. The paper derives the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm for this model and characterizes its performance in the high-dimensional limit via the associated state evolution. The analysis holds for a broad range of priors and noise channels, which can differ across modalities. The linearization of AMP is compared numerically to the widely used partial least squares (PLS) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) methods, which are both observed to suffer from a sub-optimal recovery threshold.
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