For a sample of Exponentially distributed durations we aim at point estimation and a confidence interval for its parameter. A duration is only observed if it has ended within a certain time interval, determined by a Uniform distribution. Hence, the data is a truncated empirical process that we can approximate by a Poisson process when only a small portion of the sample is observed, as is the case for our applications. We derive the likelihood from standard arguments for point processes, acknowledging the size of the latent sample as the second parameter, and derive the maximum likelihood estimator for both. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator for the Exponential parameter are derived from standard results on M-estimation. We compare the design with a simple random sample assumption for the observed durations. Theoretically, the derivative of the log-likelihood is less steep in the truncation-design for small parameter values, indicating a larger computational effort for root finding and a larger standard error. In applications from the social and economic sciences and in simulations, we indeed, find a moderately increased standard error when acknowledging truncation.
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In this paper, we consider several efficient data structures for the problem of sampling from a dynamically changing discrete probability distribution, where some prior information is known on the distribution of the rates, in particular the maximum and minimum rate, and where the number of possible outcomes N is large. We consider three basic data structures, the Acceptance-Rejection method, the Complete Binary Tree and the Alias method. These can be used as building blocks in a multi-level data structure, where at each of the levels, one of the basic data structures can be used, with the top level selecting a group of events, and the bottom level selecting an element from a group. Depending on assumptions on the distribution of the rates of outcomes, different combinations of the basic structures can be used. We prove that for particular data structures the expected time of sampling and update is constant when the rate distribution follows certain conditions. We show that for any distribution, combining a tree structure with the Acceptance-Rejection method, we have an expected time of sampling and update of $O\left(\log\log{r_{max}}/{r_{min}}\right)$ is possible, where $r_{max}$ is the maximum rate and $r_{min}$ the minimum rate. We also discuss an implementation of a Two Levels Acceptance-Rejection data structure, that allows expected constant time for sampling, and amortized constant time for updates, assuming that $r_{max}$ and $r_{min}$ are known and the number of events is sufficiently large. We also present an experimental verification, highlighting the limits given by the constraints of a real-life setting.
In this article, we introduce mixture representations for likelihood ratio ordered distributions. Essentially, the ratio of two probability densities, or mass functions, is monotone if and only if one can be expressed as a mixture of one-sided truncations of the other. To illustrate the practical value of the mixture representations, we address the problem of density estimation for likelihood ratio ordered distributions. In particular, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian solution which takes advantage of the mixture representations. The prior distribution is constructed from Dirichlet process mixtures and has large support on the space of pairs of densities satisfying the monotone ratio constraint. With a simple modification to the prior distribution, we can test the equality of two distributions against the alternative of likelihood ratio ordering. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference and demonstrate the method in a biomedical application.
Classes of simple polynomial and simple trigonometric splines given by Fourier series are considered. It is shown that the class of simple trigonometric splines includes the class of simple polynomial splines. For some parameter values, the polynomial splines coincide with the trigonometric ones; this allows to transfer to such trigonometric splines all the results obtained for polynomial splines. Thus, it was possible to combine two powerful theories - the theory of trigonometric Fourier series and the theory of simple polynomial splines. The above material is illustrated by numerous examples.
Computation of the large sparse matrix exponential has been an important topic in many fields, such as network and finite-element analysis. The existing scaling and squaring algorithm (SSA) is not suitable for the computation of the large sparse matrix exponential as it requires greater memories and computational cost than is actually needed. By introducing two novel concepts, i.e., real bandwidth and bandwidth, to measure the sparsity of the matrix, the sparsity of the matrix exponential is analyzed. It is found that for every matrix computed in the squaring phase of the SSA, a corresponding sparse approximate matrix exists. To obtain the sparse approximate matrix, a new filtering technique in terms of forward error analysis is proposed. Combining the filtering technique with the idea of keeping track of the incremental part, a competitive algorithm is developed for the large sparse matrix exponential. The proposed method can primarily alleviate the over-scaling problem due to the filtering technique. Three sets of numerical experiments, including one large matrix with a dimension larger than 2e6 , are conducted. The numerical experiments show that, compared with the expm function in MATLAB, the proposed algorithm can provide higher accuracy at lower computational cost and with less memory.
Motivated by the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19, in this paper, we develop a fully parametric quantile regression model based on the generalized three-parameter beta (GB3) distribution. Beta regression models are primarily used to model rates and proportions. However, these models are usually specified in terms of a conditional mean. Therefore, they may be inadequate if the observed response variable follows an asymmetrical distribution, such as CFR data. In addition, beta regression models do not consider the effect of the covariates across the spectrum of the dependent variable, which is possible through the conditional quantile approach. In order to introduce the proposed GB3 regression model, we first reparameterize the GB3 distribution by inserting a quantile parameter and then we develop the new proposed quantile model. We also propose a simple interpretation of the predictor-response relationship in terms of percentage increases/decreases of the quantile. A Monte Carlo study is carried out for evaluating the performance of the maximum likelihood estimates and the choice of the link functions. Finally, a real COVID-19 dataset from Chile is analyzed and discussed to illustrate the proposed approach.
Conditional disclosure of secrets (CDS) allows multiple parties to reveal a secret to a third party if and only if some pre-decided condition is satisfied. In this work, we bolster the privacy guarantees of CDS by introducing function-private CDS wherein the pre-decided condition is never revealed to the third party. We also derive a function secret sharing scheme from our function-private CDS solution. The second problem that we consider concerns threshold distributed point functions, which allow one to split a point function such that at least a threshold number of shares are required to evaluate it at any given input. We consider a setting wherein a point function is split among a set of parties such that multiple evaluations do not leak non-negligible information about it. Finally, we present a provably optimal procedure to perform threshold function secret sharing of any polynomial in a finite field.
Let $\mathbf{X} = (X_i)_{1\leq i \leq n}$ be an i.i.d. sample of square-integrable variables in $\mathbb{R}^d$, \GB{with common expectation $\mu$ and covariance matrix $\Sigma$, both unknown.} We consider the problem of testing if $\mu$ is $\eta$-close to zero, i.e. $\|\mu\| \leq \eta $ against $\|\mu\| \geq (\eta + \delta)$; we also tackle the more general two-sample mean closeness (also known as {\em relevant difference}) testing problem. The aim of this paper is to obtain nonasymptotic upper and lower bounds on the minimal separation distance $\delta$ such that we can control both the Type I and Type II errors at a given level. The main technical tools are concentration inequalities, first for a suitable estimator of $\|\mu\|^2$ used a test statistic, and secondly for estimating the operator and Frobenius norms of $\Sigma$ coming into the quantiles of said test statistic. These properties are obtained for Gaussian and bounded distributions. A particular attention is given to the dependence in the pseudo-dimension $d_*$ of the distribution, defined as $d_* := \|\Sigma\|_2^2/\|\Sigma\|_\infty^2$. In particular, for $\eta=0$, the minimum separation distance is ${\Theta}( d_*^{\frac{1}{4}}\sqrt{\|\Sigma\|_\infty/n})$, in contrast with the minimax estimation distance for $\mu$, which is ${\Theta}(d_e^{\frac{1}{2}}\sqrt{\|\Sigma\|_\infty/n})$ (where $d_e:=\|\Sigma\|_1/\|\Sigma\|_\infty$). This generalizes a phenomenon spelled out in particular by Baraud (2002).
The problem of Approximate Nearest Neighbor (ANN) search is fundamental in computer science and has benefited from significant progress in the past couple of decades. However, most work has been devoted to pointsets whereas complex shapes have not been sufficiently treated. Here, we focus on distance functions between discretized curves in Euclidean space: they appear in a wide range of applications, from road segments to time-series in general dimension. For $\ell_p$-products of Euclidean metrics, for any $p$, we design simple and efficient data structures for ANN, based on randomized projections, which are of independent interest. They serve to solve proximity problems under a notion of distance between discretized curves, which generalizes both discrete Fr\'echet and Dynamic Time Warping distances. These are the most popular and practical approaches to comparing such curves. We offer the first data structures and query algorithms for ANN with arbitrarily good approximation factor, at the expense of increasing space usage and preprocessing time over existing methods. Query time complexity is comparable or significantly improved by our algorithms, our algorithm is especially efficient when the length of the curves is bounded.
Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.
In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. We perform a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. Apart from that, we illustrate our method on real EEG and MEG data sets. The proposed covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed for accurate dipole localization, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, such as in combined EEG/fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated.
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