Any reasonable machine learning (ML) model should not only interpolate efficiently in between the training samples provided (in-distribution region), but also approach the extrapolative or out-of-distribution (OOD) region without being overconfident. Our experiment on human subjects justifies the aforementioned properties for human intelligence as well. Many state-of-the-art algorithms have tried to fix the overconfidence problem of ML models in the OOD region. However, in doing so, they have often impaired the in-distribution performance of the model. Our key insight is that ML models partition the feature space into polytopes and learn constant (random forests) or affine (ReLU networks) functions over those polytopes. This leads to the OOD overconfidence problem for the polytopes which lie in the training data boundary and extend to infinity. To resolve this issue, we propose kernel density methods that fit Gaussian kernel over the polytopes, which are learned using ML models. Specifically, we introduce two variants of kernel density polytopes: Kernel Density Forest (KDF) and Kernel Density Network (KDN) based on random forests and deep networks, respectively. Studies on various simulation settings show that both KDF and KDN achieve uniform confidence over the classes in the OOD region while maintaining good in-distribution accuracy compared to that of their respective parent models.
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This paper introduces a new simulation-based inference procedure to model and sample from multi-dimensional probability distributions given access to i.i.d. samples, circumventing the usual approaches of explicitly modeling the density function or designing Markov chain Monte Carlo. Motivated by the seminal work on distance and isomorphism between metric measure spaces, we propose a new notion called the Reversible Gromov-Monge (RGM) distance and study how RGM can be used to design new transform samplers to perform simulation-based inference. Our RGM sampler can also estimate optimal alignments between two heterogeneous metric measure spaces $(\mathcal{X}, \mu, c_{\mathcal{X}})$ and $(\mathcal{Y}, \nu, c_{\mathcal{Y}})$ from empirical data sets, with estimated maps that approximately push forward one measure $\mu$ to the other $\nu$, and vice versa. Analytic properties of the RGM distance are derived; statistical rate of convergence, representation, and optimization questions regarding the induced sampler are studied. Synthetic and real-world examples showcasing the effectiveness of the RGM sampler are also demonstrated.
Distributed machine learning (ML) can bring more computational resources to bear than single-machine learning, thus enabling reductions in training time. Distributed learning partitions models and data over many machines, allowing model and dataset sizes beyond the available compute power and memory of a single machine. In practice though, distributed ML is challenging when distribution is mandatory, rather than chosen by the practitioner. In such scenarios, data could unavoidably be separated among workers due to limited memory capacity per worker or even because of data privacy issues. There, existing distributed methods will utterly fail due to dominant transfer costs across workers, or do not even apply. We propose a new approach to distributed fully connected neural network learning, called independent subnet training (IST), to handle these cases. In IST, the original network is decomposed into a set of narrow subnetworks with the same depth. These subnetworks are then trained locally before parameters are exchanged to produce new subnets and the training cycle repeats. Such a naturally "model parallel" approach limits memory usage by storing only a portion of network parameters on each device. Additionally, no requirements exist for sharing data between workers (i.e., subnet training is local and independent) and communication volume and frequency are reduced by decomposing the original network into independent subnets. These properties of IST can cope with issues due to distributed data, slow interconnects, or limited device memory, making IST a suitable approach for cases of mandatory distribution. We show experimentally that IST results in training times that are much lower than common distributed learning approaches.
This paper presents an approach to trajectory-centric learning control based on contraction metrics and disturbance estimation for nonlinear systems subject to matched uncertainties. The proposed approach allows for the use of deep neural networks to learn uncertain dynamics while still providing guarantees of transient tracking performance throughout the learning phase. Within the proposed approach, a disturbance estimation law is adopted to estimate the pointwise value of the uncertainty, with pre-computable estimation error bounds (EEBs). The learned dynamics, the estimated disturbances, and the EEBs are then incorporated in a robust Riemannian energy condition to compute the control law that guarantees exponential convergence of actual trajectories to desired ones throughout the learning phase, even when the learned model is poor. On the other hand, with improved accuracy, the learned model can be incorporated into a high-level planner to plan better trajectories with improved performance, e.g., lower energy consumption and shorter travel time. The proposed framework is validated on a planar quadrotor navigation example.
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated analytically and found to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and normally distributed. Also, the finite sample behaviour of the estimators are studied through a simulations theory. The proposed estimators were found to yield low bias and MSE. In addition, the proposed estimators are illustrated through the estimation of the tail index of the underlying distribution of claims from the insurance industry.
This paper studies how well generative adversarial networks (GANs) learn probability distributions from finite samples. Our main results establish the convergence rates of GANs under a collection of integral probability metrics defined through H\"older classes, including the Wasserstein distance as a special case. We also show that GANs are able to adaptively learn data distributions with low-dimensional structures or have H\"older densities, when the network architectures are chosen properly. In particular, for distributions concentrated around a low-dimensional set, we show that the learning rates of GANs do not depend on the high ambient dimension, but on the lower intrinsic dimension. Our analysis is based on a new oracle inequality decomposing the estimation error into the generator and discriminator approximation error and the statistical error, which may be of independent interest.
Extracting non-Gaussian information from the non-linear regime of structure formation is key to fully exploiting the rich data from upcoming cosmological surveys probing the large-scale structure of the universe. However, due to theoretical and computational complexities, this remains one of the main challenges in analyzing observational data. We present a set of summary statistics for cosmological matter fields based on 3D wavelets to tackle this challenge. These statistics are computed as the spatial average of the complex modulus of the 3D wavelet transform raised to a power $q$ and are therefore known as invariant wavelet moments. The 3D wavelets are constructed to be radially band-limited and separable on a spherical polar grid and come in three types: isotropic, oriented, and harmonic. In the Fisher forecast framework, we evaluate the performance of these summary statistics on matter fields from the Quijote suite, where they are shown to reach state-of-the-art parameter constraints on the base $\Lambda$CDM parameters, as well as the sum of neutrino masses. We show that we can improve constraints by a factor 5 to 10 in all parameters with respect to the power spectrum baseline.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
We present a new sublinear time algorithm for approximating the spectral density (eigenvalue distribution) of an $n\times n$ normalized graph adjacency or Laplacian matrix. The algorithm recovers the spectrum up to $\epsilon$ accuracy in the Wasserstein-1 distance in $O(n\cdot \text{poly}(1/\epsilon))$ time given sample access to the graph. This result compliments recent work by David Cohen-Steiner, Weihao Kong, Christian Sohler, and Gregory Valiant (2018), which obtains a solution with runtime independent of $n$, but exponential in $1/\epsilon$. We conjecture that the trade-off between dimension dependence and accuracy is inherent. Our method is simple and works well experimentally. It is based on a Chebyshev polynomial moment matching method that employees randomized estimators for the matrix trace. We prove that, for any Hermitian $A$, this moment matching method returns an $\epsilon$ approximation to the spectral density using just $O({1}/{\epsilon})$ matrix-vector products with $A$. By leveraging stability properties of the Chebyshev polynomial three-term recurrence, we then prove that the method is amenable to the use of coarse approximate matrix-vector products. Our sublinear time algorithm follows from combining this result with a novel sampling algorithm for approximating matrix-vector products with a normalized graph adjacency matrix. Of independent interest, we show a similar result for the widely used \emph{kernel polynomial method} (KPM), proving that this practical algorithm nearly matches the theoretical guarantees of our moment matching method. Our analysis uses tools from Jackson's seminal work on approximation with positive polynomial kernels.
In this paper, two reputation based algorithms called Reputation and audit based clustering (RAC) algorithm and Reputation and audit based clustering with auxiliary anchor node (RACA) algorithm are proposed to defend against Byzantine attacks in distributed detection networks when the fusion center (FC) has no prior knowledge of the attacking strategy of Byzantine nodes. By updating the reputation index of the sensors in cluster-based networks, the system can accurately identify Byzantine nodes. The simulation results show that both proposed algorithms have superior detection performance compared with other algorithms. The proposed RACA algorithm works well even when the number of Byzantine nodes exceeds half of the total number of sensors in the network. Furthermore, the robustness of our proposed algorithms is evaluated in a dynamically changing scenario, where the attacking parameters change over time. We show that our algorithms can still achieve superior detection performance.
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical to ensuring the reliability and safety of machine learning systems. For instance, in autonomous driving, we would like the driving system to issue an alert and hand over the control to humans when it detects unusual scenes or objects that it has never seen before and cannot make a safe decision. This problem first emerged in 2017 and since then has received increasing attention from the research community, leading to a plethora of methods developed, ranging from classification-based to density-based to distance-based ones. Meanwhile, several other problems are closely related to OOD detection in terms of motivation and methodology. These include anomaly detection (AD), novelty detection (ND), open set recognition (OSR), and outlier detection (OD). Despite having different definitions and problem settings, these problems often confuse readers and practitioners, and as a result, some existing studies misuse terms. In this survey, we first present a generic framework called generalized OOD detection, which encompasses the five aforementioned problems, i.e., AD, ND, OSR, OOD detection, and OD. Under our framework, these five problems can be seen as special cases or sub-tasks, and are easier to distinguish. Then, we conduct a thorough review of each of the five areas by summarizing their recent technical developments. We conclude this survey with open challenges and potential research directions.
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