We consider an extension to the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown arm dynamics, where an unknown exogenous global Markov process governs the rewards distribution of each arm. Under each global state, the rewards process of each arm evolves according to an unknown Markovian rule, which is non-identical among different arms. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of $N$ arms to play, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The arms are restless, that is, their local state evolves regardless of the player's actions. Motivated by recent studies on related RMAB settings, the regret is defined as the reward loss with respect to a player that knows the dynamics of the problem, and plays at each time $t$ the arm that maximizes the expected immediate value. The objective is to develop an arm-selection policy that minimizes the regret. To that end, we develop the Learning under Exogenous Markov Process (LEMP) algorithm. We analyze LEMP theoretically and establish a finite-sample bound on the regret. We show that LEMP achieves a logarithmic regret order with time. We further analyze LEMP numerically and present simulation results that support the theoretical findings and demonstrate that LEMP significantly outperforms alternative algorithms.
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An efficient, reliable, and interpretable global solution method, the Deep learning-based algorithm for Heterogeneous Agent Models (DeepHAM), is proposed for solving high dimensional heterogeneous agent models with aggregate shocks. The state distribution is approximately represented by a set of optimal generalized moments. Deep neural networks are used to approximate the value and policy functions, and the objective is optimized over directly simulated paths. In addition to being an accurate global solver, this method has three additional features. First, it is computationally efficient in solving complex heterogeneous agent models, and it does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Second, it provides a general and interpretable representation of the distribution over individual states, which is crucial in addressing the classical question of whether and how heterogeneity matters in macroeconomics. Third, it solves the constrained efficiency problem as easily as it solves the competitive equilibrium, which opens up new possibilities for studying optimal monetary and fiscal policies in heterogeneous agent models with aggregate shocks.
We study the problem of transfer-learning in the setting of stochastic linear bandit tasks. We consider that a low dimensional linear representation is shared across the tasks, and study the benefit of learning this representation in the multi-task learning setting. Following recent results to design stochastic bandit policies, we propose an efficient greedy policy based on trace norm regularization. It implicitly learns a low dimensional representation by encouraging the matrix formed by the task regression vectors to be of low rank. Unlike previous work in the literature, our policy does not need to know the rank of the underlying matrix. We derive an upper bound on the multi-task regret of our policy, which is, up to logarithmic factors, of order $\sqrt{NdT(T+d)r}$, where $T$ is the number of tasks, $r$ the rank, $d$ the number of variables and $N$ the number of rounds per task. We show the benefit of our strategy compared to the baseline $Td\sqrt{N}$ obtained by solving each task independently. We also provide a lower bound to the multi-task regret. Finally, we corroborate our theoretical findings with preliminary experiments on synthetic data.
In multiagent systems, the complex interaction of fixed incentives can lead agents to outcomes that are poor (inefficient) not only for the group, but also for each individual. Price of anarchy is a technical, game-theoretic definition that quantifies the inefficiency arising in these scenarios -- it compares the welfare that can be achieved through perfect coordination against that achieved by self-interested agents at a Nash equilibrium. We derive a differentiable, upper bound on a price of anarchy that agents can cheaply estimate during learning. Equipped with this estimator, agents can adjust their incentives in a way that improves the efficiency incurred at a Nash equilibrium. Agents do so by learning to mix their reward (equiv. negative loss) with that of other agents by following the gradient of our derived upper bound. We refer to this approach as D3C. In the case where agent incentives are differentiable, D3C resembles the celebrated Win-Stay, Lose-Shift strategy from behavioral game theory, thereby establishing a connection between the global goal of maximum welfare and an established agent-centric learning rule. In the non-differentiable setting, as is common in multiagent reinforcement learning, we show the upper bound can be reduced via evolutionary strategies, until a compromise is reached in a distributed fashion. We demonstrate that D3C improves outcomes for each agent and the group as a whole on several social dilemmas including a traffic network exhibiting Braess's paradox, a prisoner's dilemma, and several multiagent domains.
We study the stochastic multi-player multi-armed bandit problem. In this problem, $m$ players cooperate to maximize their total reward from $K > m$ arms. However the players cannot communicate and are penalized (e.g. receive no reward) if they pull the same arm at the same time. We ask whether it is possible to obtain optimal instance-dependent regret $\tilde{O}(1/\Delta)$ where $\Delta$ is the gap between the $m$-th and $m+1$-st best arms. Such guarantees were recently achieved in a model allowing the players to implicitly communicate through intentional collisions. We show that with no communication at all, such guarantees are, surprisingly, not achievable. In fact, obtaining the optimal $\tilde{O}(1/\Delta)$ regret for some regimes of $\Delta$ necessarily implies strictly sub-optimal regret in other regimes. Our main result is a complete characterization of the Pareto optimal instance-dependent trade-offs that are possible with no communication. Our algorithm generalizes that of Bubeck, Budzinski, and the second author and enjoys the same strong no-collision property, while our lower bound is based on a topological obstruction and holds even under full information.
The increasing size of data generated by smartphones and IoT devices motivated the development of Federated Learning (FL), a framework for on-device collaborative training of machine learning models. First efforts in FL focused on learning a single global model with good average performance across clients, but the global model may be arbitrarily bad for a given client, due to the inherent heterogeneity of local data distributions. Federated multi-task learning (MTL) approaches can learn personalized models by formulating an opportune penalized optimization problem. The penalization term can capture complex relations among personalized models, but eschews clear statistical assumptions about local data distributions. In this work, we propose to study federated MTL under the flexible assumption that each local data distribution is a mixture of unknown underlying distributions. This assumption encompasses most of the existing personalized FL approaches and leads to federated EM-like algorithms for both client-server and fully decentralized settings. Moreover, it provides a principled way to serve personalized models to clients not seen at training time. The algorithms' convergence is analyzed through a novel federated surrogate optimization framework, which can be of general interest. Experimental results on FL benchmarks show that our approach provides models with higher accuracy and fairness than state-of-the-art methods.
Meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) aims to learn from multiple training tasks the ability to adapt efficiently to unseen test tasks. Despite the success, existing meta-RL algorithms are known to be sensitive to the task distribution shift. When the test task distribution is different from the training task distribution, the performance may degrade significantly. To address this issue, this paper proposes Model-based Adversarial Meta-Reinforcement Learning (AdMRL), where we aim to minimize the worst-case sub-optimality gap -- the difference between the optimal return and the return that the algorithm achieves after adaptation -- across all tasks in a family of tasks, with a model-based approach. We propose a minimax objective and optimize it by alternating between learning the dynamics model on a fixed task and finding the adversarial task for the current model -- the task for which the policy induced by the model is maximally suboptimal. Assuming the family of tasks is parameterized, we derive a formula for the gradient of the suboptimality with respect to the task parameters via the implicit function theorem, and show how the gradient estimator can be efficiently implemented by the conjugate gradient method and a novel use of the REINFORCE estimator. We evaluate our approach on several continuous control benchmarks and demonstrate its efficacy in the worst-case performance over all tasks, the generalization power to out-of-distribution tasks, and in training and test time sample efficiency, over existing state-of-the-art meta-RL algorithms.
Discovering causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many empirical sciences. Traditional score-based casual discovery methods rely on various local heuristics to search for a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) according to a predefined score function. While these methods, e.g., greedy equivalence search, may have attractive results with infinite samples and certain model assumptions, they are usually less satisfactory in practice due to finite data and possible violation of assumptions. Motivated by recent advances in neural combinatorial optimization, we propose to use Reinforcement Learning (RL) to search for the DAG with the best scoring. Our encoder-decoder model takes observable data as input and generates graph adjacency matrices that are used to compute rewards. The reward incorporates both the predefined score function and two penalty terms for enforcing acyclicity. In contrast with typical RL applications where the goal is to learn a policy, we use RL as a search strategy and our final output would be the graph, among all graphs generated during training, that achieves the best reward. We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, and show that the proposed approach not only has an improved search ability but also allows a flexible score function under the acyclicity constraint.
We consider the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning and we show that an agent imbued with a risk-seeking utility function is able to explore efficiently, as measured by regret. The parameter that controls how risk-seeking the agent is can be optimized exactly, or annealed according to a schedule. We call the resulting algorithm K-learning and show that the corresponding K-values are optimistic for the expected Q-values at each state-action pair. The K-values induce a natural Boltzmann exploration policy for which the `temperature' parameter is equal to the risk-seeking parameter. This policy achieves an expected regret bound of $\tilde O(L^{3/2} \sqrt{S A T})$, where $L$ is the time horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the total number of elapsed time-steps. This bound is only a factor of $L$ larger than the established lower bound. K-learning can be interpreted as mirror descent in the policy space, and it is similar to other well-known methods in the literature, including Q-learning, soft-Q-learning, and maximum entropy policy gradient, and is closely related to optimism and count based exploration methods. K-learning is simple to implement, as it only requires adding a bonus to the reward at each state-action and then solving a Bellman equation. We conclude with a numerical example demonstrating that K-learning is competitive with other state-of-the-art algorithms in practice.
This work considers the problem of provably optimal reinforcement learning for episodic finite horizon MDPs, i.e. how an agent learns to maximize his/her long term reward in an uncertain environment. The main contribution is in providing a novel algorithm --- Variance-reduced Upper Confidence Q-learning (vUCQ) --- which enjoys a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{HSAT} + H^5SA)$, where the $T$ is the number of time steps the agent acts in the MDP, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $H$ is the (episodic) horizon time. This is the first regret bound that is both sub-linear in the model size and asymptotically optimal. The algorithm is sub-linear in that the time to achieve $\epsilon$-average regret for any constant $\epsilon$ is $O(SA)$, which is a number of samples that is far less than that required to learn any non-trivial estimate of the transition model (the transition model is specified by $O(S^2A)$ parameters). The importance of sub-linear algorithms is largely the motivation for algorithms such as $Q$-learning and other "model free" approaches. vUCQ algorithm also enjoys minimax optimal regret in the long run, matching the $\Omega(\sqrt{HSAT})$ lower bound. Variance-reduced Upper Confidence Q-learning (vUCQ) is a successive refinement method in which the algorithm reduces the variance in $Q$-value estimates and couples this estimation scheme with an upper confidence based algorithm. Technically, the coupling of both of these techniques is what leads to the algorithm enjoying both the sub-linear regret property and the asymptotically optimal regret.
We propose a new approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) based on the deep Gaussian process (deep GP) model, which is capable of learning complicated reward structures with few demonstrations. Our model stacks multiple latent GP layers to learn abstract representations of the state feature space, which is linked to the demonstrations through the Maximum Entropy learning framework. Incorporating the IRL engine into the nonlinear latent structure renders existing deep GP inference approaches intractable. To tackle this, we develop a non-standard variational approximation framework which extends previous inference schemes. This allows for approximate Bayesian treatment of the feature space and guards against overfitting. Carrying out representation and inverse reinforcement learning simultaneously within our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, as we demonstrate with experiments on standard benchmarks ("object world","highway driving") and a new benchmark ("binary world").
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