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Recent work introduced deep kernel processes as an entirely kernel-based alternative to NNs (Aitchison et al. 2020). Deep kernel processes flexibly learn good top-layer representations by alternately sampling the kernel from a distribution over positive semi-definite matrices and performing nonlinear transformations. A particular deep kernel process, the deep Wishart process (DWP), is of particular interest because its prior can be made equivalent to deep Gaussian process (DGP) priors for kernels that can be expressed entirely in terms of Gram matrices. However, inference in DWPs has not yet been possible due to the lack of sufficiently flexible distributions over positive semi-definite matrices. Here, we give a novel approach to obtaining flexible distributions over positive semi-definite matrices by generalising the Bartlett decomposition of the Wishart probability density. We use this new distribution to develop an approximate posterior for the DWP that includes dependency across layers. We develop a doubly-stochastic inducing-point inference scheme for the DWP and show experimentally that inference in the DWP can improve performance over doing inference in a DGP with the equivalent prior.

Adversarial robustness is a critical property in a variety of modern machine learning applications. While it has been the subject of several recent theoretical studies, many important questions related to adversarial robustness are still open. In this work, we study a fundamental question regarding Bayes optimality for adversarial robustness. We provide general sufficient conditions under which the existence of a Bayes optimal classifier can be guaranteed for adversarial robustness. Our results can provide a useful tool for a subsequent study of surrogate losses in adversarial robustness and their consistency properties. This manuscript is the extended version of the paper "On the Existence of the Adversarial Bayes Classifier" published in NeurIPS. The results of the original paper did not apply to some non-strictly convex norms. Here we extend our results to all possible norms.

We analyze the orthogonal greedy algorithm when applied to dictionaries $\mathbb{D}$ whose convex hull has small entropy. We show that if the metric entropy of the convex hull of $\mathbb{D}$ decays at a rate of $O(n^{-\frac{1}{2}-\alpha})$ for $\alpha > 0$, then the orthogonal greedy algorithm converges at the same rate on the variation space of $\mathbb{D}$. This improves upon the well-known $O(n^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ convergence rate of the orthogonal greedy algorithm in many cases, most notably for dictionaries corresponding to shallow neural networks. These results hold under no additional assumptions on the dictionary beyond the decay rate of the entropy of its convex hull. In addition, they are robust to noise in the target function and can be extended to convergence rates on the interpolation spaces of the variation norm. Finally, we show that these improved rates are sharp and prove a negative result showing that the iterates generated by the orthogonal greedy algorithm cannot in general be bounded in the variation norm of $\mathbb{D}$.

Tracking and identifying players is a fundamental step in computer vision-based ice hockey analytics. The data generated by tracking is used in many other downstream tasks, such as game event detection and game strategy analysis. Player tracking and identification is a challenging problem since the motion of players in hockey is fast-paced and non-linear when compared to pedestrians. There is also significant camera panning and zooming in hockey broadcast video. Identifying players in ice hockey is challenging since the players of the same team look almost identical, with the jersey number the only discriminating factor between players. In this paper, an automated system to track and identify players in broadcast NHL hockey videos is introduced. The system is composed of three components (1) Player tracking, (2) Team identification and (3) Player identification. Due to the absence of publicly available datasets, the datasets used to train the three components are annotated manually. Player tracking is performed with the help of a state of the art tracking algorithm obtaining a Multi-Object Tracking Accuracy (MOTA) score of 94.5%. For team identification, the away-team jerseys are grouped into a single class and home-team jerseys are grouped in classes according to their jersey color. A convolutional neural network is then trained on the team identification dataset. The team identification network gets an accuracy of 97% on the test set. A novel player identification model is introduced that utilizes a temporal one-dimensional convolutional network to identify players from player bounding box sequences. The player identification model further takes advantage of the available NHL game roster data to obtain a player identification accuracy of 83%.

The quantification of modern slavery has received increased attention recently as organizations have come together to produce global estimates, where multiple systems estimation (MSE) is often used to this end. Echoing a long-standing controversy, disagreements have re-surfaced regarding the underlying MSE assumptions, the robustness of MSE methodology, and the accuracy of MSE estimates in this application. Our goal is to help address and move past these controversies. To do so, we review MSE, its assumptions, and commonly used models for modern slavery applications. We introduce all of the publicly available modern slavery datasets in the literature, providing a reproducible analysis and highlighting current issues. Specifically, we utilize an internal consistency approach that constructs subsets of data for which ground truth is available, allowing us to evaluate the accuracy of MSE estimators. Next, we propose a characterization of the large sample bias of estimators as a function of misspecified assumptions. Then, we propose an alternative to traditional (e.g., bootstrap-based) assessments of reliability, which allows us to visualize trajectories of MSE estimates to illustrate the robustness of estimates. Finally, our complementary analyses are used to provide guidance regarding the application and reliability of MSE methodology.

Estimating causal effects from randomized experiments is central to clinical research. Reducing the statistical uncertainty in these analyses is an important objective for statisticians. Registries, prior trials, and health records constitute a growing compendium of historical data on patients under standard-of-care that may be exploitable to this end. However, most methods for historical borrowing achieve reductions in variance by sacrificing strict type-I error rate control. Here, we propose a use of historical data that exploits linear covariate adjustment to improve the efficiency of trial analyses without incurring bias. Specifically, we train a prognostic model on the historical data, then estimate the treatment effect using a linear regression while adjusting for the trial subjects' predicted outcomes (their prognostic scores). We prove that, under certain conditions, this prognostic covariate adjustment procedure attains the minimum variance possible among a large class of estimators. When those conditions are not met, prognostic covariate adjustment is still more efficient than raw covariate adjustment and the gain in efficiency is proportional to a measure of the predictive accuracy of the prognostic model above and beyond the linear relationship with the raw covariates. We demonstrate the approach using simulations and a reanalysis of an Alzheimer's Disease clinical trial and observe meaningful reductions in mean-squared error and the estimated variance. Lastly, we provide a simplified formula for asymptotic variance that enables power calculations that account for these gains. Sample size reductions between 10% and 30% are attainable when using prognostic models that explain a clinically realistic percentage of the outcome variance.

The availability of large microarray data has led to a growing interest in biclustering methods in the past decade. Several algorithms have been proposed to identify subsets of genes and conditions according to different similarity measures and under varying constraints. In this paper we focus on the exclusive row biclustering problem for gene expression data sets, in which each row can only be a member of a single bicluster while columns can participate in multiple ones. This type of biclustering may be adequate, for example, for clustering groups of cancer patients where each patient (row) is expected to be carrying only a single type of cancer, while each cancer type is associated with multiple (and possibly overlapping) genes (columns). We present a novel method to identify these exclusive row biclusters through a combination of existing biclustering algorithms and combinatorial auction techniques. We devise an approach for tuning the threshold for our algorithm based on comparison to a null model in the spirit of the Gap statistic approach. We demonstrate our approach on both synthetic and real-world gene expression data and show its power in identifying large span non-overlapping rows sub matrices, while considering their unique nature. The Gap statistic approach succeeds in identifying appropriate thresholds in all our examples.

Image foreground extraction is a classical problem in image processing and vision, with a large range of applications. In this dissertation, we focus on the extraction of text and graphics in mixed-content images, and design novel approaches for various aspects of this problem. We first propose a sparse decomposition framework, which models the background by a subspace containing smooth basis vectors, and foreground as a sparse and connected component. We then formulate an optimization framework to solve this problem, by adding suitable regularizations to the cost function to promote the desired characteristics of each component. We present two techniques to solve the proposed optimization problem, one based on alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), and the other one based on robust regression. Promising results are obtained for screen content image segmentation using the proposed algorithm. We then propose a robust subspace learning algorithm for the representation of the background component using training images that could contain both background and foreground components, as well as noise. With the learnt subspace for the background, we can further improve the segmentation results, compared to using a fixed subspace. Lastly, we investigate a different class of signal/image decomposition problem, where only one signal component is active at each signal element. In this case, besides estimating each component, we need to find their supports, which can be specified by a binary mask. We propose a mixed-integer programming problem, that jointly estimates the two components and their supports through an alternating optimization scheme. We show the application of this algorithm on various problems, including image segmentation, video motion segmentation, and also separation of text from textured images.

Object tracking based on retina-inspired and event-based dynamic vision sensor (DVS) is challenging for the noise events, rapid change of event-stream shape, chaos of complex background textures, and occlusion. To address these challenges, this paper presents a robust event-stream pattern tracking method based on correlative filter mechanism. In the proposed method, rate coding is used to encode the event-stream object in each segment. Feature representations from hierarchical convolutional layers of a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) are used to represent the appearance of the rate encoded event-stream object. The results prove that our method not only achieves good tracking performance in many complicated scenes with noise events, complex background textures, occlusion, and intersected trajectories, but also is robust to variable scale, variable pose, and non-rigid deformations. In addition, this correlative filter based event-stream tracking has the advantage of high speed. The proposed approach will promote the potential applications of these event-based vision sensors in self-driving, robots and many other high-speed scenes.

Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.