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We conduct a controlled crowd-sourced experiment of COVID-19 case data visualization to study if and how different plotting methods, time windows, and the nature of the data influence people's interpretation of real-world COVID-19 data and people's prediction of how the data will evolve in the future. We find that a 7-day backward average smoothed line successfully reduces the distraction of periodic data patterns compared to just unsmoothed bar data. Additionally, we find that the presence of a smoothed line helps readers form a consensus on how the data will evolve in the future. We also find that the fixed 7-day smoothing window size leads to different amounts of perceived recurring patterns in the data depending on the time period plotted -- this suggests that varying the smoothing window size together with the plot window size might be a promising strategy to influence the perception of spurious patterns in the plot.

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We analyze asynchronous-type algorithms for distributed SGD in the heterogeneous setting, where each worker has its own computation and communication speeds, as well as data distribution. In these algorithms, workers compute possibly stale and stochastic gradients associated with their local data at some iteration back in history and then return those gradients to the server without synchronizing with other workers. We present a unified convergence theory for non-convex smooth functions in the heterogeneous regime. The proposed analysis provides convergence for pure asynchronous SGD and its various modifications. Moreover, our theory explains what affects the convergence rate and what can be done to improve the performance of asynchronous algorithms. In particular, we introduce a novel asynchronous method based on worker shuffling. As a by-product of our analysis, we also demonstrate convergence guarantees for gradient-type algorithms such as SGD with random reshuffling and shuffle-once mini-batch SGD. The derived rates match the best-known results for those algorithms, highlighting the tightness of our approach. Finally, our numerical evaluations support theoretical findings and show the good practical performance of our method.

The detection of malicious deepfakes is a constantly evolving problem that requires continuous monitoring of detectors to ensure they can detect image manipulations generated by the latest emerging models. In this paper, we investigate the vulnerability of single-image deepfake detectors to black-box attacks created by the newest generation of generative methods, namely Denoising Diffusion Models (DDMs). Our experiments are run on FaceForensics++, a widely used deepfake benchmark consisting of manipulated images generated with various techniques for face identity swapping and face reenactment. Attacks are crafted through guided reconstruction of existing deepfakes with a proposed DDM approach for face restoration. Our findings indicate that employing just a single denoising diffusion step in the reconstruction process of a deepfake can significantly reduce the likelihood of detection, all without introducing any perceptible image modifications. While training detectors using attack examples demonstrated some effectiveness, it was observed that discriminators trained on fully diffusion-based deepfakes exhibited limited generalizability when presented with our attacks.

Machine learning models are famously vulnerable to adversarial attacks: small ad-hoc perturbations of the data that can catastrophically alter the model predictions. While a large literature has studied the case of test-time attacks on pre-trained models, the important case of attacks in an online learning setting has received little attention so far. In this work, we use a control-theoretical perspective to study the scenario where an attacker may perturb data labels to manipulate the learning dynamics of an online learner. We perform a theoretical analysis of the problem in a teacher-student setup, considering different attack strategies, and obtaining analytical results for the steady state of simple linear learners. These results enable us to prove that a discontinuous transition in the learner's accuracy occurs when the attack strength exceeds a critical threshold. We then study empirically attacks on learners with complex architectures using real data, confirming the insights of our theoretical analysis. Our findings show that greedy attacks can be extremely efficient, especially when data stream in small batches.

We propose a self-correction mechanism for Large Language Models (LLMs) to mitigate issues such as toxicity and fact hallucination. This method involves refining model outputs through an ensemble of critics and the model's own feedback. Drawing inspiration from human behavior, we explore whether LLMs can emulate the self-correction process observed in humans who often engage in self-reflection and seek input from others to refine their understanding of complex topics. Our approach is model-agnostic and can be applied across various domains to enhance trustworthiness by addressing fairness, bias, and robustness concerns. We consistently observe performance improvements in LLMs for reducing toxicity and correcting factual errors.

The theory underlying robust distributed learning algorithms, designed to resist adversarial machines, matches empirical observations when data is homogeneous. Under data heterogeneity however, which is the norm in practical scenarios, established lower bounds on the learning error are essentially vacuous and greatly mismatch empirical observations. This is because the heterogeneity model considered is too restrictive and does not cover basic learning tasks such as least-squares regression. We consider in this paper a more realistic heterogeneity model, namely (G,B)-gradient dissimilarity, and show that it covers a larger class of learning problems than existing theory. Notably, we show that the breakdown point under heterogeneity is lower than the classical fraction 1/2. We also prove a new lower bound on the learning error of any distributed learning algorithm. We derive a matching upper bound for a robust variant of distributed gradient descent, and empirically show that our analysis reduces the gap between theory and practice.

Today, using Large-scale generative Language Models (LLMs) it is possible to simulate free responses to interview questions like those traditionally analyzed using qualitative research methods. Qualitative methodology encompasses a broad family of techniques involving manual analysis of open-ended interviews or conversations conducted freely in natural language. Here we consider whether artificial "silicon participants" generated by LLMs may be productively studied using qualitative methods aiming to produce insights that could generalize to real human populations. The key concept in our analysis is algorithmic fidelity, a term introduced by Argyle et al. (2023) capturing the degree to which LLM-generated outputs mirror human sub-populations' beliefs and attitudes. By definition, high algorithmic fidelity suggests latent beliefs elicited from LLMs may generalize to real humans, whereas low algorithmic fidelity renders such research invalid. Here we used an LLM to generate interviews with silicon participants matching specific demographic characteristics one-for-one with a set of human participants. Using framework-based qualitative analysis, we showed the key themes obtained from both human and silicon participants were strikingly similar. However, when we analyzed the structure and tone of the interviews we found even more striking differences. We also found evidence of the hyper-accuracy distortion described by Aher et al. (2023). We conclude that the LLM we tested (GPT-3.5) does not have sufficient algorithmic fidelity to expect research on it to generalize to human populations. However, the rapid pace of LLM research makes it plausible this could change in the future. Thus we stress the need to establish epistemic norms now around how to assess validity of LLM-based qualitative research, especially concerning the need to ensure representation of heterogeneous lived experiences.

Temporal relation extraction models have thus far been hindered by a number of issues in existing temporal relation-annotated news datasets, including: (1) low inter-annotator agreement due to the lack of specificity of their annotation guidelines in terms of what counts as a temporal relation; (2) the exclusion of long-distance relations within a given document (those spanning across different paragraphs); and (3) the exclusion of events that are not centred on verbs. This paper aims to alleviate these issues by presenting a new annotation scheme that clearly defines the criteria based on which temporal relations should be annotated. Additionally, the scheme includes events even if they are not expressed as verbs (e.g., nominalised events). Furthermore, we propose a method for annotating all temporal relations -- including long-distance ones -- which automates the process, hence reducing time and manual effort on the part of annotators. The result is a new dataset, the TIMELINE corpus, in which improved inter-annotator agreement was obtained, in comparison with previously reported temporal relation datasets. We report the results of training and evaluating baseline temporal relation extraction models on the new corpus, and compare them with results obtained on the widely used MATRES corpus.

Knowledge graph reasoning (KGR), aiming to deduce new facts from existing facts based on mined logic rules underlying knowledge graphs (KGs), has become a fast-growing research direction. It has been proven to significantly benefit the usage of KGs in many AI applications, such as question answering and recommendation systems, etc. According to the graph types, the existing KGR models can be roughly divided into three categories, \textit{i.e.,} static models, temporal models, and multi-modal models. The early works in this domain mainly focus on static KGR and tend to directly apply general knowledge graph embedding models to the reasoning task. However, these models are not suitable for more complex but practical tasks, such as inductive static KGR, temporal KGR, and multi-modal KGR. To this end, multiple works have been developed recently, but no survey papers and open-source repositories comprehensively summarize and discuss models in this important direction. To fill the gap, we conduct a survey for knowledge graph reasoning tracing from static to temporal and then to multi-modal KGs. Concretely, the preliminaries, summaries of KGR models, and typical datasets are introduced and discussed consequently. Moreover, we discuss the challenges and potential opportunities. The corresponding open-source repository is shared on GitHub: //github.com/LIANGKE23/Awesome-Knowledge-Graph-Reasoning.

This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.

We introduce a multi-task setup of identifying and classifying entities, relations, and coreference clusters in scientific articles. We create SciERC, a dataset that includes annotations for all three tasks and develop a unified framework called Scientific Information Extractor (SciIE) for with shared span representations. The multi-task setup reduces cascading errors between tasks and leverages cross-sentence relations through coreference links. Experiments show that our multi-task model outperforms previous models in scientific information extraction without using any domain-specific features. We further show that the framework supports construction of a scientific knowledge graph, which we use to analyze information in scientific literature.

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