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Let $\bx_j = \btheta +\bep_j, j=1,...,n$, be observations of an unknown parameter $\btheta$ in a Euclidean or separable Hilbert space $\scrH$, where $\bep_j$ are noises as random elements in $\scrH$ from a general distribution. We study the estimation of $f(\btheta)$ for a given functional $f:\scrH\rightarrow \RR$ based on $\bx_j$'s. The key element of our approach is a new method which we call High-Order Degenerate Statistical Expansion. It leverages the use of classical multivariate Taylor expansion and degenerate $U$-statistic and yields an elegant explicit formula. In the univariate case of $\scrH=\R$, the formula expresses the error of the proposed estimator as a sum of order $k$ degenerate $U$-products of the noises with coefficient $f^{(k)}(\btheta)/k!$ and an explicit remainder term in the form of the Riemann-Liouville integral as in the Taylor expansion around the true $\btheta$. For general $\scrH$, the formula expresses the estimation error in terms of the inner product of $f^{(k)}(\btheta)/k!$ and the average of the tensor products of $k$ noises with distinct indices and a parallel extension of the remainder term from the univariate case. This makes the proposed method a natural statistical version of the classical Taylor expansion. The proposed estimator can be viewed as a jackknife estimator of an ideal degenerate expansion of $f(\cdot)$ around the true $\btheta$ with the degenerate $U$-product of the noises, and can be approximated by bootstrap. Thus, the jackknife, bootstrap and Taylor expansion approaches all converge to the proposed estimator. We develop risk bounds for the proposed estimator and a central limit theorem under a second moment condition (even in expansions of higher than the second order). We apply this new method to generalize several existing results with smooth and nonsmooth $f$ to universal $\bep_j$'s with only minimum moment constraints.

We study the phase synchronization problem with noisy measurements $Y=z^*z^{*H}+\sigma W\in\mathbb{C}^{n\times n}$, where $z^*$ is an $n$-dimensional complex unit-modulus vector and $W$ is a complex-valued Gaussian random matrix. It is assumed that each entry $Y_{jk}$ is observed with probability $p$. We prove that an SDP relaxation of the MLE achieves the error bound $(1+o(1))\frac{\sigma^2}{2np}$ under a normalized squared $\ell_2$ loss. This result matches the minimax lower bound of the problem, and even the leading constant is sharp. The analysis of the SDP is based on an equivalent non-convex programming whose solution can be characterized as a fixed point of the generalized power iteration lifted to a higher dimensional space. This viewpoint unifies the proofs of the statistical optimality of three different methods: MLE, SDP, and generalized power method. The technique is also applied to the analysis of the SDP for $\mathbb{Z}_2$ synchronization, and we achieve the minimax optimal error $\exp\left(-(1-o(1))\frac{np}{2\sigma^2}\right)$ with a sharp constant in the exponent.

We derive a consistency result, in the $L_1$-sense, for incomplete U-statistics in the non-standard case where the kernel at hand has infinite second-order moments. Assuming that the kernel has finite moments of order $p(\geq 1)$, we obtain a bound on the $L_1$ distance between the incomplete U-statistic and its Dirac weak limit, which allows us to obtain, for any fixed $p$, an upper bound on the consistency rate. Our results hold for most classical sampling schemes that are used to obtain incomplete U-statistics.

In this work we develop a novel fully discrete version of the plates complex, an exact Hilbert complex relevant for the mixed formulation of fourth-order problems. The derivation of the discrete complex follows the discrete de Rham paradigm, leading to an arbitrary-order construction that applies to meshes composed of general polygonal elements. The discrete plates complex is then used to derive a novel numerical scheme for Kirchhoff--Love plates, for which a full stability and convergence analysis are performed. Extensive numerical tests complete the exposition.

Let $Q_{n}^{r}$ be the graph with vertex set $\{-1,1\}^{n}$ in which two vertices are joined if their Hamming distance is at most $r$. The edge-isoperimetric problem for $Q_{n}^{r}$ is that: For every $(n,r,M)$ such that $1\le r\le n$ and $1\le M\le2^{n}$, determine the minimum edge-boundary size of a subset of vertices of $Q_{n}^{r}$ with a given size $M$. In this paper, we apply two different approaches to prove bounds for this problem. The first approach is a linear programming approach and the second is a probabilistic approach. Our bound derived by the first approach generalizes the tight bound for $M=2^{n-1}$ derived by Kahn, Kalai, and Linial in 1989. Moreover, our bound is also tight for $M=2^{n-2}$ and $r\le\frac{n}{2}-1$. Our bounds derived by the second approach are expressed in terms of the \emph{noise stability}, and they are shown to be asymptotically tight as $n\to\infty$ when $r=2\lfloor\frac{\beta n}{2}\rfloor+1$ and $M=\lfloor\alpha2^{n}\rfloor$ for fixed $\alpha,\beta\in(0,1)$, and is tight up to a factor $2$ when $r=2\lfloor\frac{\beta n}{2}\rfloor$ and $M=\lfloor\alpha2^{n}\rfloor$. In fact, the edge-isoperimetric problem is equivalent to a ball-noise stability problem which is a variant of the traditional (i.i.d.-) noise stability problem. Our results can be interpreted as bounds for the ball-noise stability problem.

The recent statistical finite element method (statFEM) provides a coherent statistical framework to synthesise finite element models with observed data. Through embedding uncertainty inside of the governing equations, finite element solutions are updated to give a posterior distribution which quantifies all sources of uncertainty associated with the model. However to incorporate all sources of uncertainty, one must integrate over the uncertainty associated with the model parameters, the known forward problem of uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we make use of Langevin dynamics to solve the statFEM forward problem, studying the utility of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA), a Metropolis-free Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to build a sample-based characterisation of this otherwise intractable measure. Due to the structure of the statFEM problem, these methods are able to solve the forward problem without explicit full PDE solves, requiring only sparse matrix-vector products. ULA is also gradient-based, and hence provides a scalable approach up to high degrees-of-freedom. Leveraging the theory behind Langevin-based samplers, we provide theoretical guarantees on sampler performance, demonstrating convergence, for both the prior and posterior, in the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and, in Wasserstein-2, with further results on the effect of preconditioning. Numerical experiments are also provided, for both the prior and posterior, to demonstrate the efficacy of the sampler, with a Python package also included.

Spatio-temporal forecasting has numerous applications in analyzing wireless, traffic, and financial networks. Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. Recent advances in deep learning allow for better modelling of spatial and temporal dependencies. While most of these models focus on obtaining accurate point forecasts, they do not characterize the prediction uncertainty. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model and target Bayesian inference of the hidden states for probabilistic forecasting. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings. Thorough experimentation on several real world time-series datasets demonstrates that our approach provides better characterization of uncertainty while maintaining comparable accuracy to the state-of-the art point forecasting methods.

This manuscript surveys reinforcement learning from the perspective of optimization and control with a focus on continuous control applications. It surveys the general formulation, terminology, and typical experimental implementations of reinforcement learning and reviews competing solution paradigms. In order to compare the relative merits of various techniques, this survey presents a case study of the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) with unknown dynamics, perhaps the simplest and best studied problem in optimal control. The manuscript describes how merging techniques from learning theory and control can provide non-asymptotic characterizations of LQR performance and shows that these characterizations tend to match experimental behavior. In turn, when revisiting more complex applications, many of the observed phenomena in LQR persist. In particular, theory and experiment demonstrate the role and importance of models and the cost of generality in reinforcement learning algorithms. This survey concludes with a discussion of some of the challenges in designing learning systems that safely and reliably interact with complex and uncertain environments and how tools from reinforcement learning and controls might be combined to approach these challenges.

A fundamental computation for statistical inference and accurate decision-making is to compute the marginal probabilities or most probable states of task-relevant variables. Probabilistic graphical models can efficiently represent the structure of such complex data, but performing these inferences is generally difficult. Message-passing algorithms, such as belief propagation, are a natural way to disseminate evidence amongst correlated variables while exploiting the graph structure, but these algorithms can struggle when the conditional dependency graphs contain loops. Here we use Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to learn a message-passing algorithm that solves these inference tasks. We first show that the architecture of GNNs is well-matched to inference tasks. We then demonstrate the efficacy of this inference approach by training GNNs on a collection of graphical models and showing that they substantially outperform belief propagation on loopy graphs. Our message-passing algorithms generalize out of the training set to larger graphs and graphs with different structure.

In this paper we study the frequentist convergence rate for the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (Blei et al., 2003) topic models. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator converges to one of the finitely many equivalent parameters in Wasserstein's distance metric at a rate of $n^{-1/4}$ without assuming separability or non-degeneracy of the underlying topics and/or the existence of more than three words per document, thus generalizing the previous works of Anandkumar et al. (2012, 2014) from an information-theoretical perspective. We also show that the $n^{-1/4}$ convergence rate is optimal in the worst case.