Diffusion models in the literature are optimized with various objectives that are special cases of a weighted loss, where the weighting function specifies the weight per noise level. Uniform weighting corresponds to maximizing the ELBO, a principled approximation of maximum likelihood. In current practice diffusion models are optimized with non-uniform weighting due to better results in terms of sample quality. In this work we expose a direct relationship between the weighted loss (with any weighting) and the ELBO objective. We show that the weighted loss can be written as a weighted integral of ELBOs, with one ELBO per noise level. If the weighting function is monotonic, then the weighted loss is a likelihood-based objective: it maximizes the ELBO under simple data augmentation, namely Gaussian noise perturbation. Our main contribution is a deeper theoretical understanding of the diffusion objective, but we also performed some experiments comparing monotonic with non-monotonic weightings, finding that monotonic weighting performs competitively with the best published results.
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Several kernel based testing procedures are proposed to solve the problem of model selection in the presence of parameter estimation in a family of candidate models. Extending the two sample test of Gretton et al. (2006), we first provide a way of testing whether some data is drawn from a given parametric model (model specification). Second, we provide a test statistic to decide whether two parametric models are equally valid to describe some data (model comparison), in the spirit of Vuong (1989). All our tests are asymptotically standard normal under the null, even when the true underlying distribution belongs to the competing parametric families.Some simulations illustrate the performance of our tests in terms of power and level.
Even when the causal graph underlying our data is unknown, we can use observational data to narrow down the possible values that an average treatment effect (ATE) can take by (1) identifying the graph up to a Markov equivalence class; and (2) estimating that ATE for each graph in the class. While the PC algorithm can identify this class under strong faithfulness assumptions, it can be computationally prohibitive. Fortunately, only the local graph structure around the treatment is required to identify the set of possible ATE values, a fact exploited by local discovery algorithms to improve computational efficiency. In this paper, we introduce Local Discovery using Eager Collider Checks (LDECC), a new local causal discovery algorithm that leverages unshielded colliders to orient the treatment's parents differently from existing methods. We show that there exist graphs where LDECC exponentially outperforms existing local discovery algorithms and vice versa. Moreover, we show that LDECC and existing algorithms rely on different faithfulness assumptions, leveraging this insight to weaken the assumptions for identifying the set of possible ATE values.
Inverse problems are in many cases solved with optimization techniques. When the underlying model is linear, first-order gradient methods are usually sufficient. With nonlinear models, due to nonconvexity, one must often resort to second-order methods that are computationally more expensive. In this work we aim to approximate a nonlinear model with a linear one and correct the resulting approximation error. We develop a sequential method that iteratively solves a linear inverse problem and updates the approximation error by evaluating it at the new solution. This treatment convexifies the problem and allows us to benefit from established convex optimization methods. We separately consider cases where the approximation is fixed over iterations and where the approximation is adaptive. In the fixed case we show theoretically under what assumptions the sequence converges. In the adaptive case, particularly considering the special case of approximation by first-order Taylor expansion, we show that with certain assumptions the sequence converges to a critical point of the original nonconvex functional. Furthermore, we show that with quadratic objective functions the sequence corresponds to the Gauss-Newton method. Finally, we showcase numerical results superior to the conventional model correction method. We also show, that a fixed approximation can provide competitive results with considerable computational speed-up.
We develop the first active learning method in the predict-then-optimize framework. Specifically, we develop a learning method that sequentially decides whether to request the "labels" of feature samples from an unlabeled data stream, where the labels correspond to the parameters of an optimization model for decision-making. Our active learning method is the first to be directly informed by the decision error induced by the predicted parameters, which is referred to as the Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) loss. Motivated by the structure of the SPO loss, our algorithm adopts a margin-based criterion utilizing the concept of distance to degeneracy and minimizes a tractable surrogate of the SPO loss on the collected data. In particular, we develop an efficient active learning algorithm with both hard and soft rejection variants, each with theoretical excess risk (i.e., generalization) guarantees. We further derive bounds on the label complexity, which refers to the number of samples whose labels are acquired to achieve a desired small level of SPO risk. Under some natural low-noise conditions, we show that these bounds can be better than the naive supervised learning approach that labels all samples. Furthermore, when using the SPO+ loss function, a specialized surrogate of the SPO loss, we derive a significantly smaller label complexity under separability conditions. We also present numerical evidence showing the practical value of our proposed algorithms in the settings of personalized pricing and the shortest path problem.
Knowledge distillation is the technique of compressing a larger neural network, known as the teacher, into a smaller neural network, known as the student, while still trying to maintain the performance of the larger neural network as much as possible. Existing methods of knowledge distillation are mostly applicable for classification tasks. Many of them also require access to the data used to train the teacher model. To address the problem of knowledge distillation for regression tasks under the absence of original training data, previous work has proposed a data-free knowledge distillation method where synthetic data are generated using a generator model trained adversarially against the student model. These synthetic data and their labels predicted by the teacher model are then used to train the student model. In this study, we investigate the behavior of various synthetic data generation methods and propose a new synthetic data generation strategy that directly optimizes for a large but bounded difference between the student and teacher model. Our results on benchmark and case study experiments demonstrate that the proposed strategy allows the student model to learn better and emulate the performance of the teacher model more closely.
Guessing Random Additive Noise Decoding (GRAND) is a family of hard- and soft-detection error correction decoding algorithms that provide accurate decoding of any moderate redundancy code of any length. Here we establish a method through which any soft-input GRAND algorithm can provide soft output in the form of an accurate a posteriori estimate of the likelihood that a decoding is correct or, in the case of list decoding, the likelihood that the correct decoding is an element of the list. Implementing the method adds negligible additional computation and memory to the existing decoding process. The output permits tuning the balance between undetected errors and block errors for arbitrary moderate redundancy codes including CRCs
This paper combines modern numerical computation with theoretical results to improve our understanding of the growth factor problem for Gaussian elimination. On the computational side we obtain lower bounds for the maximum growth for complete pivoting for $n=1:75$ and $n=100$ using the Julia JuMP optimization package. At $n=100$ we obtain a growth factor bigger than $3n$. The numerical evidence suggests that the maximum growth factor is bigger than $n$ if and only if $n \ge 11$. We also present a number of theoretical results. We show that the maximum growth factor over matrices with entries restricted to a subset of the reals is nearly equal to the maximum growth factor over all real matrices. We also show that the growth factors under floating point arithmetic and exact arithmetic are nearly identical. Finally, through numerical search, and stability and extrapolation results, we provide improved lower bounds for the maximum growth factor. Specifically, we find that the largest growth factor is bigger than $1.0045n$, and the lim sup of the ratio with $n$ is greater than or equal to $3.317$. In contrast to the old conjecture that growth might never be bigger than $n$, it seems likely that the maximum growth divided by $n$ goes to infinity as $n \rightarrow \infty$.
Diffusion models have shown incredible capabilities as generative models; indeed, they power the current state-of-the-art models on text-conditioned image generation such as Imagen and DALL-E 2. In this work we review, demystify, and unify the understanding of diffusion models across both variational and score-based perspectives. We first derive Variational Diffusion Models (VDM) as a special case of a Markovian Hierarchical Variational Autoencoder, where three key assumptions enable tractable computation and scalable optimization of the ELBO. We then prove that optimizing a VDM boils down to learning a neural network to predict one of three potential objectives: the original source input from any arbitrary noisification of it, the original source noise from any arbitrarily noisified input, or the score function of a noisified input at any arbitrary noise level. We then dive deeper into what it means to learn the score function, and connect the variational perspective of a diffusion model explicitly with the Score-based Generative Modeling perspective through Tweedie's Formula. Lastly, we cover how to learn a conditional distribution using diffusion models via guidance.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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