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Regime-switching poses both problems and opportunities for portfolio managers. If a switch in the behaviour of the markets is not quickly detected it can be a source of loss, since previous trading positions may be inappropriate in the new regime. However, if a regime-switch can be detected quickly, and especially if it can be predicted ahead of time, these changes in market behaviour can instead be a source of substantial profit. The work of this paper builds on two previous works by the authors, the first of these dealing with regime detection and the second, which is an extension of the first, with regime prediction. Specifically, this work uses our previous regime-prediction model (KMRF) within a framework of multi-period portfolio optimisation, achieved by model predictive control, (MPC), with the KMRF-derived return estimates accuracy-boosted by means of a novel use of a Kalman filter. The resulting proposed model, which we term the KMRF+MPC model, to reflect its constituent methodologies, is demonstrated to outperform industry-standard benchmarks, even though it is restricted, in order to be acceptable to the widest range of investors, to long-only positions.

Sequential experimental design to discover interventions that achieve a desired outcome is a key problem in various domains including science, engineering and public policy. When the space of possible interventions is large, making an exhaustive search infeasible, experimental design strategies are needed. In this context, encoding the causal relationships between the variables, and thus the effect of interventions on the system, is critical for identifying desirable interventions more efficiently. Here, we develop a causal active learning strategy to identify interventions that are optimal, as measured by the discrepancy between the post-interventional mean of the distribution and a desired target mean. The approach employs a Bayesian update for the causal model and prioritizes interventions using a carefully designed, causally informed acquisition function. This acquisition function is evaluated in closed form, allowing for fast optimization. The resulting algorithms are theoretically grounded with information-theoretic bounds and provable consistency results for linear causal models with known causal graph. We apply our approach to both synthetic data and single-cell transcriptomic data from Perturb-CITE-seq experiments to identify optimal perturbations that induce a specific cell state transition. The causally informed acquisition function generally outperforms existing criteria allowing for optimal intervention design with fewer but carefully selected samples.

Domain adaptive detection aims to improve the generality of a detector, learned from the labeled source domain, on the unlabeled target domain. In this work, drawing inspiration from the concept of stability from the control theory that a robust system requires to remain consistent both externally and internally regardless of disturbances, we propose a novel framework that achieves unsupervised domain adaptive detection through stability analysis. In specific, we treat discrepancies between images and regions from different domains as disturbances, and introduce a novel simple but effective Network Stability Analysis (NSA) framework that considers various disturbances for domain adaptation. Particularly, we explore three types of perturbations including heavy and light image-level disturbances and instancelevel disturbance. For each type, NSA performs external consistency analysis on the outputs from raw and perturbed images and/or internal consistency analysis on their features, using teacher-student models. By integrating NSA into Faster R-CNN, we immediately achieve state-of-the-art results. In particular, we set a new record of 52.7% mAP on Cityscapes-to-FoggyCityscapes, showing the potential of NSA for domain adaptive detection. It is worth noticing, our NSA is designed for general purpose, and thus applicable to one-stage detection model (e.g., FCOS) besides the adopted one, as shown by experiments. //github.com/tiankongzhang/NSA.

Data analysis usually suffers from the Missing Not At Random (MNAR) problem, where the cause of the value missing is not fully observed. Compared to the naive Missing Completely At Random (MCAR) problem, it is more in line with the realistic scenario whereas more complex and challenging. Existing statistical methods model the MNAR mechanism by different decomposition of the joint distribution of the complete data and the missing mask. But we empirically find that directly incorporating these statistical methods into deep generative models is sub-optimal. Specifically, it would neglect the confidence of the reconstructed mask during the MNAR imputation process, which leads to insufficient information extraction and less-guaranteed imputation quality. In this paper, we revisit the MNAR problem from a novel perspective that the complete data and missing mask are two modalities of incomplete data on an equal footing. Along with this line, we put forward a generative-model-specific joint probability decomposition method, conjunction model, to represent the distributions of two modalities in parallel and extract sufficient information from both complete data and missing mask. Taking a step further, we exploit a deep generative imputation model, namely GNR, to process the real-world missing mechanism in the latent space and concurrently impute the incomplete data and reconstruct the missing mask. The experimental results show that our GNR surpasses state-of-the-art MNAR baselines with significant margins (averagely improved from 9.9% to 18.8% in RMSE) and always gives a better mask reconstruction accuracy which makes the imputation more principle.

The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.

In semi-supervised domain adaptation, a few labeled samples per class in the target domain guide features of the remaining target samples to aggregate around them. However, the trained model cannot produce a highly discriminative feature representation for the target domain because the training data is dominated by labeled samples from the source domain. This could lead to disconnection between the labeled and unlabeled target samples as well as misalignment between unlabeled target samples and the source domain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called Cross-domain Adaptive Clustering to address this problem. To achieve both inter-domain and intra-domain adaptation, we first introduce an adversarial adaptive clustering loss to group features of unlabeled target data into clusters and perform cluster-wise feature alignment across the source and target domains. We further apply pseudo labeling to unlabeled samples in the target domain and retain pseudo-labels with high confidence. Pseudo labeling expands the number of ``labeled" samples in each class in the target domain, and thus produces a more robust and powerful cluster core for each class to facilitate adversarial learning. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, including DomainNet, Office-Home and Office, demonstrate that our proposed approach achieves the state-of-the-art performance in semi-supervised domain adaptation.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

Sentiment analysis is a widely studied NLP task where the goal is to determine opinions, emotions, and evaluations of users towards a product, an entity or a service that they are reviewing. One of the biggest challenges for sentiment analysis is that it is highly language dependent. Word embeddings, sentiment lexicons, and even annotated data are language specific. Further, optimizing models for each language is very time consuming and labor intensive especially for recurrent neural network models. From a resource perspective, it is very challenging to collect data for different languages. In this paper, we look for an answer to the following research question: can a sentiment analysis model trained on a language be reused for sentiment analysis in other languages, Russian, Spanish, Turkish, and Dutch, where the data is more limited? Our goal is to build a single model in the language with the largest dataset available for the task, and reuse it for languages that have limited resources. For this purpose, we train a sentiment analysis model using recurrent neural networks with reviews in English. We then translate reviews in other languages and reuse this model to evaluate the sentiments. Experimental results show that our robust approach of single model trained on English reviews statistically significantly outperforms the baselines in several different languages.

Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.