Ordinary differential equations (ODEs), commonly used to characterize the dynamic systems, are difficult to propose in closed-form for many complicated scientific applications, even with the help of domain expert. We propose a fast and accurate data-driven method, MAGI-X, to learn the unknown dynamic from the observation data in a non-parametric fashion, without the need of any domain knowledge. Unlike the existing methods that mainly rely on the costly numerical integration, MAGI-X utilizes the powerful functional approximator of neural network to learn the unknown nonlinear dynamic within the MAnifold-constrained Gaussian process Inference (MAGI) framework that completely circumvents the numerical integration. Comparing against the state-of-the-art methods on three realistic examples, MAGI-X achieves competitive accuracy in both fitting and forecasting while only taking a fraction of computational time. Moreover, MAGI-X provides practical solution for the inference of partial observed systems, which no previous method is able to handle.
Camera calibration is an important prerequisite towards the solution of 3D computer vision problems. Traditional methods rely on static images of a calibration pattern. This raises interesting challenges towards the practical usage of event cameras, which notably require image change to produce sufficient measurements. The current standard for event camera calibration therefore consists of using flashing patterns. They have the advantage of simultaneously triggering events in all reprojected pattern feature locations, but it is difficult to construct or use such patterns in the field. We present the first dynamic event camera calibration algorithm. It calibrates directly from events captured during relative motion between camera and calibration pattern. The method is propelled by a novel feature extraction mechanism for calibration patterns, and leverages existing calibration tools before optimizing all parameters through a multi-segment continuous-time formulation. As demonstrated through our results on real data, the obtained calibration method is highly convenient and reliably calibrates from data sequences spanning less than 10 seconds.
This paper considers parametricity and its consequent free theorems for nested data types. Rather than representing nested types via their Church encodings in a higher-kinded or dependently typed extension of System F, we adopt a functional programming perspective and design a Hindley-Milner-style calculus with primitives for constructing nested types directly as fixpoints. Our calculus can express all nested types appearing in the literature, including truly nested types. At the level of terms, it supports primitive pattern matching, map functions, and fold combinators for nested types. Our main contribution is the construction of a parametric model for our calculus. This is both delicate and challenging. In particular, to ensure the existence of semantic fixpoints interpreting nested types, and thus to establish a suitable Identity Extension Lemma for our calculus, our type system must explicitly track functoriality of types, and cocontinuity conditions on the functors interpreting them must be appropriately threaded throughout the model construction. We also prove that our model satisfies an appropriate Abstraction Theorem, as well as that it verifies all standard consequences of parametricity in the presence of primitive nested types. We give several concrete examples illustrating how our model can be used to derive useful free theorems, including a short cut fusion transformation, for programs over nested types. Finally, we consider generalizing our results to GADTs, and argue that no extension of our parametric model for nested types can give a functorial interpretation of GADTs in terms of left Kan extensions and still be parametric.
We consider the estimation of an n-dimensional vector s from the noisy element-wise measurements of $\mathbf{s}\mathbf{s}^T$, a generic problem that arises in statistics and machine learning. We study a mismatched Bayesian inference setting, where some of the parameters are not known to the statistician. We derive the full exact analytic expression of the asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) in the large system size limit for the particular case of Gaussian priors and additive noise. From our formulas, we see that estimation is still possible in the mismatched case; and also that the minimum MSE (MMSE) can be achieved if the statistician chooses suitable parameters. Our technique relies on the asymptotics of the spherical integrals and can be applied as long as the statistician chooses a rotationally invariant prior.
We study a general model for continuous spin systems with hard-core interactions. Our model allows for a mixture of $q$ types of particles on a $d$-dimensional Euclidean region $\mathbb{V}$ of volume $\nu(\mathbb{V})$. For each type, particle positions are distributed according to a Poisson point process. The Gibbs distribution over possible system states is given by the mixture of these point processes conditioned that no two particles are closer than some distance parameterized by a $q \times q$ matrix. This model encompasses classical continuous spin systems, such as the hard-sphere model or the Widom-Rowlinson model. We present sufficient conditions for approximating the partition function of this model, which is the normalizing factor of its Gibbs measure. For the hard-sphere model, our method yields a randomized approximation algorithm with running time polynomial in $\nu(\mathbb{V})$ for the known uniqueness regime of the Gibbs measure. In the same parameter regime, we obtain a quasi-polynomial deterministic approximation, which, to our knowledge, is the first rigorous deterministic algorithm for a continuous spin system. We obtain similar approximation results for all continuous spin systems captured by our model and, in particular, the first explicit approximation bounds for the Widom-Rowlinson model. Additionally, we show how to obtain efficient approximate samplers for the Gibbs distributions of the respective spin systems within the same parameter regimes. Key to our method is reducing the continuous model to a discrete instance of the hard-core model with size polynomial in $\nu(\mathbb{V})$. This generalizes existing discretization schemes for the hard-sphere model and, additionally, improves the required number of vertices of the generated graph from super-exponential to quadratic in $\nu(\mathbb{V})$, which we argue to be tight.
Gibbs sampling methods for mixture models are based on data augmentation schemes that account for the unobserved partition in the data. Conditional samplers rely on allocation variables that identify each observation with a mixture component. They are known to suffer from slow mixing in infinite mixtures, where some form of truncation, either deterministic or random, is required. In mixtures with random number of components, the exploration of parameter spaces of different dimensions can also be challenging. We tackle these issues by expressing the mixture components in the random order of appearance in an exchangeable sequence directed by the mixing distribution. We derive a sampler that is straightforward to implement for mixing distributions with tractable size-biased ordered weights. In infinite mixtures, no form of truncation is necessary. As for finite mixtures with random dimension, a simple updating of the number of components is obtained by a blocking argument, thus, easing challenges found in trans-dimensional moves via Metropolis-Hasting steps. Additionally, the latent clustering structure of the model is encrypted by means of an ordered partition with blocks labelled in the least element order, which mitigates the label-switching problem. We illustrate through a simulation study the good mixing performance of the new sampler.
This paper develops a frequentist solution to the functional calibration problem, where the value of a calibration parameter in a computer model is allowed to vary with the value of control variables in the physical system. The need of functional calibration is motivated by engineering applications where using a constant calibration parameter results in a significant mismatch between outputs from the computer model and the physical experiment. Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) are used to model the optimal calibration function, defined as the functional relationship between the calibration parameter and control variables that gives the best prediction. This optimal calibration function is estimated through penalized least squares with an RKHS-norm penalty and using physical data. An uncertainty quantification procedure is also developed for such estimates. Theoretical guarantees of the proposed method are provided in terms of prediction consistency and consistency of estimating the optimal calibration function. The proposed method is tested using both real and synthetic data and exhibits more robust performance in prediction and uncertainty quantification than the existing parametric functional calibration method and a state-of-art Bayesian method.
Probabilistic graphical models are a fundamental tool in probabilistic modeling, machine learning and artificial intelligence. They allow us to integrate in a natural way expert knowledge, physical modeling, heterogeneous and correlated data and quantities of interest. For exactly this reason, multiple sources of model uncertainty are inherent within the modular structure of the graphical model. In this paper we develop information-theoretic, robust uncertainty quantification methods and non-parametric stress tests for directed graphical models to assess the effect and the propagation through the graph of multi-sourced model uncertainties to quantities of interest. These methods allow us to rank the different sources of uncertainty and correct the graphical model by targeting its most impactful components with respect to the quantities of interest. Thus, from a machine learning perspective, we provide a mathematically rigorous approach to correctability that guarantees a systematic selection for improvement of components of a graphical model while controlling potential new errors created in the process in other parts of the model. We demonstrate our methods in two physico-chemical examples, namely quantum scale-informed chemical kinetics and materials screening to improve the efficiency of fuel cells.
Dynamical systems arise in a wide variety of mathematical models from science and engineering. A common challenge is to quantify uncertainties on model inputs (parameters) that correspond to a quantitative characterization of uncertainties on observable Quantities of Interest (QoI). To this end, we consider a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) with a solution described by a pullback probability measure. We call this an observation-consistent solution, as its subsequent push-forward through the QoI map matches the observed probability distribution on model outputs. A distinction is made between QoI useful for solving the SIP and arbitrary model output data. In dynamical systems, model output data are often given as a series of state variable responses recorded over a particular time window. Consequently, the dimension of output data can easily exceed $\mathcal{O}(1E4)$ or more due to the frequency of observations, and the correct choice or construction of a QoI from this data is not self-evident. We present a new framework, Learning Uncertain Quantities (LUQ), that facilitates the tractable solution of SIPs for dynamical systems. Given ensembles of predicted (simulated) time series and (noisy) observed data, LUQ provides routines for filtering data, unsupervised learning of the underlying dynamics, classifying observations, and feature extraction to learn the QoI map. Subsequently, time series data are transformed into samples of the underlying predicted and observed distributions associated with the QoI so that solutions to the SIP are computable. Following the introduction and demonstration of LUQ, numerical results from several SIPs are presented for a variety of dynamical systems arising in the life and physical sciences. For scientific reproducibility, we provide links to our Python implementation of LUQ and to all data and scripts required to reproduce the results in this manuscript.
We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.
We propose a new approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) based on the deep Gaussian process (deep GP) model, which is capable of learning complicated reward structures with few demonstrations. Our model stacks multiple latent GP layers to learn abstract representations of the state feature space, which is linked to the demonstrations through the Maximum Entropy learning framework. Incorporating the IRL engine into the nonlinear latent structure renders existing deep GP inference approaches intractable. To tackle this, we develop a non-standard variational approximation framework which extends previous inference schemes. This allows for approximate Bayesian treatment of the feature space and guards against overfitting. Carrying out representation and inverse reinforcement learning simultaneously within our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, as we demonstrate with experiments on standard benchmarks ("object world","highway driving") and a new benchmark ("binary world").