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The closure principle is fundamental in multiple testing and has been used to derive many efficient procedures with familywise error rate control. However, it is often not suitable for modern research, as more flexible multiple testing settings are considered where not all hypotheses are known at the beginning of the evaluation. In this paper, we focus on online multiple testing where a possibly infinite sequence of hypotheses is tested over time. At each step, it must be decided on the current hypothesis without having any information about the hypotheses that have not been tested yet. Our main contribution is a new online closure principle which ensures that the resulting closed procedure can be applied in the online setting. We prove that any familywise error rate (FWER) controlling online procedure can be derived by this online closure principle. In addition, we demonstrate how short-cuts of these online closed procedures can be obtained under a suitable consonance property and apply the results in order to construct new online multiple testing methods. Finally, the new online closure principle is used to derive an improvement of the currently most promising online procedure with FWER control, the ADDIS-Spending under local dependence.

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In this paper, we study fast first-order algorithms that approximately solve linear programs (LPs). More specifically, we apply algorithms from online linear programming to offline LPs and derive algorithms that are free of any matrix multiplication. To further improve the applicability of the proposed methods, we propose a variable-duplication technique that achieves $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{mn/K})$ optimality gap by copying each variable $K$ times. Moreover, we identify that online algorithms can be efficiently incorporated into a column generation framework for large-scale LPs. Finally, numerical experiments show that our proposed methods can be applied either as an approximate direct solver or as an initialization subroutine in frameworks of exact LP solving.

Climate-induced disasters are and will continue to be on the rise, and thus search-and-rescue (SAR) operations, where the task is to localize and assist one or several people who are missing, become increasingly relevant. In many cases the rough location may be known and a UAV can be deployed to explore a given, confined area to precisely localize the missing people. Due to time and battery constraints it is often critical that localization is performed as efficiently as possible. In this work we approach this type of problem by abstracting it as an aerial view goal localization task in a framework that emulates a SAR-like setup without requiring access to actual UAVs. In this framework, an agent operates on top of an aerial image (proxy for a search area) and is tasked with localizing a goal that is described in terms of visual cues. To further mimic the situation on an actual UAV, the agent is not able to observe the search area in its entirety, not even at low resolution, and thus it has to operate solely based on partial glimpses when navigating towards the goal. To tackle this task, we propose AiRLoc, a reinforcement learning (RL)-based model that decouples exploration (searching for distant goals) and exploitation (localizing nearby goals). Extensive evaluations show that AiRLoc outperforms heuristic search methods as well as alternative learnable approaches, and that it generalizes across datasets, e.g. to disaster-hit areas without seeing a single disaster scenario during training. We also conduct a proof-of-concept study which indicates that the learnable methods outperform humans on average. Code and models have been made publicly available at //github.com/aleksispi/airloc.

Inductive programming frequently relies on some form of search in order to identify candidate solutions. However, the size of the search space limits the use of inductive programming to the production of relatively small programs. If we could somehow correctly predict the subset of instructions required for a given problem then inductive programming would be more tractable. We will show that this can be achieved in a high percentage of cases. This paper presents a novel model of programming language instruction co-occurrence that was built to support search space partitioning in the Zoea distributed inductive programming system. This consists of a collection of intersecting instruction subsets derived from a large sample of open source code. Using the approach different parts of the search space can be explored in parallel. The number of subsets required does not grow linearly with the quantity of code used to produce them and a manageable number of subsets is sufficient to cover a high percentage of unseen code. This approach also significantly reduces the overall size of the search space - often by many orders of magnitude.

We investigate the contraction coefficients derived from strong data processing inequalities for the $E_\gamma$-divergence. By generalizing the celebrated Dobrushin's coefficient from total variation distance to $E_\gamma$-divergence, we derive a closed-form expression for the contraction of $E_\gamma$-divergence. This result has fundamental consequences in two privacy settings. First, it implies that local differential privacy can be equivalently expressed in terms of the contraction of $E_\gamma$-divergence. This equivalent formula can be used to precisely quantify the impact of local privacy in (Bayesian and minimax) estimation and hypothesis testing problems in terms of the reduction of effective sample size. Second, it leads to a new information-theoretic technique for analyzing privacy guarantees of online algorithms. In this technique, we view such algorithms as a composition of amplitude-constrained Gaussian channels and then relate their contraction coefficients under $E_\gamma$-divergence to the overall differential privacy guarantees. As an example, we apply our technique to derive the differential privacy parameters of gradient descent. Moreover, we also show that this framework can be tailored to batch learning algorithms that can be implemented with one pass over the training dataset.

Structure learning is a core problem in AI central to the fields of neuro-symbolic AI and statistical relational learning. It consists in automatically learning a logical theory from data. The basis for structure learning is mining repeating patterns in the data, known as structural motifs. Finding these patterns reduces the exponential search space and therefore guides the learning of formulas. Despite the importance of motif learning, it is still not well understood. We present the first principled approach for mining structural motifs in lifted graphical models, languages that blend first-order logic with probabilistic models, which uses a stochastic process to measure the similarity of entities in the data. Our first contribution is an algorithm, which depends on two intuitive hyperparameters: one controlling the uncertainty in the entity similarity measure, and one controlling the softness of the resulting rules. Our second contribution is a preprocessing step where we perform hierarchical clustering on the data to reduce the search space to the most relevant data. Our third contribution is to introduce an O(n ln n) (in the size of the entities in the data) algorithm for clustering structurally-related data. We evaluate our approach using standard benchmarks and show that we outperform state-of-the-art structure learning approaches by up to 6% in terms of accuracy and up to 80% in terms of runtime.

We develop new tools in the theory of nonlinear random matrices and apply them to study the performance of the Sum of Squares (SoS) hierarchy on average-case problems. The SoS hierarchy is a powerful optimization technique that has achieved tremendous success for various problems in combinatorial optimization, robust statistics and machine learning. It's a family of convex relaxations that lets us smoothly trade off running time for approximation guarantees. In recent works, it's been shown to be extremely useful for recovering structure in high dimensional noisy data. It also remains our best approach towards refuting the notorious Unique Games Conjecture. In this work, we analyze the performance of the SoS hierarchy on fundamental problems stemming from statistics, theoretical computer science and statistical physics. In particular, we show subexponential-time SoS lower bounds for the problems of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick Hamiltonian, Planted Slightly Denser Subgraph, Tensor Principal Components Analysis and Sparse Principal Components Analysis. These SoS lower bounds involve analyzing large random matrices, wherein lie our main contributions. These results offer strong evidence for the truth of and insight into the low-degree likelihood ratio hypothesis, an important conjecture that predicts the power of bounded-time algorithms for hypothesis testing. We also develop general-purpose tools for analyzing the behavior of random matrices which are functions of independent random variables. Towards this, we build on and generalize the matrix variant of the Efron-Stein inequalities. In particular, our general theorem on matrix concentration recovers various results that have appeared in the literature. We expect these random matrix theory ideas to have other significant applications.

We initiate a study of computable online (c-online) learning, which we analyze under varying requirements for "optimality" in terms of the mistake bound. Our main contribution is to give a necessary and sufficient condition for optimal c-online learning and show that the Littlestone dimension no longer characterizes the optimal mistake bound of c-online learning. Furthermore, we introduce anytime optimal (a-optimal) online learning, a more natural conceptualization of "optimality" and a generalization of Littlestone's Standard Optimal Algorithm. We show the existence of a computational separation between a-optimal and optimal online learning, proving that a-optimal online learning is computationally more difficult. Finally, we consider online learning with no requirements for optimality, and show, under a weaker notion of computability, that the finiteness of the Littlestone dimension no longer characterizes whether a class is c-online learnable with finite mistake bound. A potential avenue for strengthening this result is suggested by exploring the relationship between c-online and CPAC learning, where we show that c-online learning is as difficult as improper CPAC learning.

Auto-regressive large language models such as GPT-3 require enormous computational resources to use. Traditionally, structured pruning methods are employed to reduce resource usage. However, their application to and efficacy for generative language models is heavily under-explored. In this paper we conduct an comprehensive evaluation of common structured pruning methods, including magnitude, random, and movement pruning on the feed-forward layers in GPT-type models. Unexpectedly, random pruning results in performance that is comparable to the best established methods, across multiple natural language generation tasks. To understand these results, we provide a framework for measuring neuron-level redundancy of models pruned by different methods, and discover that established structured pruning methods do not take into account the distinctiveness of neurons, leaving behind excess redundancies. In view of this, we introduce Globally Unique Movement (GUM) to improve the uniqueness of neurons in pruned models. We then discuss the effects of our techniques on different redundancy metrics to explain the improved performance.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

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