Reliable and accurate wind speed prediction has significant impact in many industrial sectors such as economic, business and management among others. This paper presents a new model for wind speed prediction based on Graph Attention Networks (GAT). In particular, the proposed model extends GAT architecture by equipping it with a learnable adjacency matrix as well as incorporating a new attention mechanism with the aim of obtaining attention scores per weather variable. The output of the GAT based model is combined with the LSTM layer in order to exploit both the spatial and temporal characteristics of the multivariate multidimensional historical weather data. Real weather data collected from several cities in Denmark and Netherlands are used to conduct the experiments and evaluate the performance of the proposed model. We show that in comparison to previous architectures used for wind speed prediction, the proposed model is able to better learn the complex input-output relationships of the weather data. Furthermore, thanks to the learned attention weights, the model provides an additional insights on the most important weather variables and cities for the studied prediction task.
Traffic forecasting is important for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models, including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks, have been extensively applied in traffic forecasting problems to model spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in transportation systems as well as contextual information, graph neural networks have been introduced and have achieved state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of research using different graph neural networks, e.g. graph convolutional and graph attention networks, in various traffic forecasting problems, e.g. road traffic flow and speed forecasting, passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit systems, and demand forecasting in ride-hailing platforms. We also present a comprehensive list of open data and source resources for each problem and identify future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first comprehensive survey that explores the application of graph neural networks for traffic forecasting problems. We have also created a public GitHub repository where the latest papers, open data, and source resources will be updated.
Spatio-temporal forecasting has numerous applications in analyzing wireless, traffic, and financial networks. Many classical statistical models often fall short in handling the complexity and high non-linearity present in time-series data. Recent advances in deep learning allow for better modelling of spatial and temporal dependencies. While most of these models focus on obtaining accurate point forecasts, they do not characterize the prediction uncertainty. In this work, we consider the time-series data as a random realization from a nonlinear state-space model and target Bayesian inference of the hidden states for probabilistic forecasting. We use particle flow as the tool for approximating the posterior distribution of the states, as it is shown to be highly effective in complex, high-dimensional settings. Thorough experimentation on several real world time-series datasets demonstrates that our approach provides better characterization of uncertainty while maintaining comparable accuracy to the state-of-the art point forecasting methods.
There recently has been a surge of interest in developing a new class of deep learning (DL) architectures that integrate an explicit time dimension as a fundamental building block of learning and representation mechanisms. In turn, many recent results show that topological descriptors of the observed data, encoding information on the shape of the dataset in a topological space at different scales, that is, persistent homology of the data, may contain important complementary information, improving both performance and robustness of DL. As convergence of these two emerging ideas, we propose to enhance DL architectures with the most salient time-conditioned topological information of the data and introduce the concept of zigzag persistence into time-aware graph convolutional networks (GCNs). Zigzag persistence provides a systematic and mathematically rigorous framework to track the most important topological features of the observed data that tend to manifest themselves over time. To integrate the extracted time-conditioned topological descriptors into DL, we develop a new topological summary, zigzag persistence image, and derive its theoretical stability guarantees. We validate the new GCNs with a time-aware zigzag topological layer (Z-GCNETs), in application to traffic forecasting and Ethereum blockchain price prediction. Our results indicate that Z-GCNET outperforms 13 state-of-the-art methods on 4 time series datasets.
Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.
Predicting the road traffic speed is a challenging task due to different types of roads, abrupt speed changes, and spatial dependencies between roads, which requires the modeling of dynamically changing spatial dependencies among roads and temporal patterns over long input sequences. This paper proposes a novel Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention (STGRAT) that effectively captures the spatio-temporal dynamics in road networks. The features of our approach mainly include spatial attention, temporal attention, and spatial sentinel vectors. The spatial attention takes the graph structure information (e.g., distance between roads) and dynamically adjusts spatial correlation based on road states. The temporal attention is responsible for capturing traffic speed changes, while the sentinel vectors allow the model to retrieve new features from spatially correlated nodes or preserve existing features. The experimental results show that STGRAT outperforms existing models, especially in difficult conditions where traffic speeds rapidly change (e.g., rush hours). We additionally provide a qualitative study to analyze when and where STGRAT mainly attended to make accurate predictions during a rush-hour time.
Graph or network data is ubiquitous in the real world, including social networks, information networks, traffic networks, biological networks and various technical networks. The non-Euclidean nature of graph data poses the challenge for modeling and analyzing graph data. Recently, Graph Neural Network (GNNs) are proposed as a general and powerful framework to handle tasks on graph data, e.g., node embedding, link prediction and node classification. As a representative implementation of GNNs, Graph Attention Networks (GATs) are successfully applied in a variety of tasks on real datasets. However, GAT is designed to networks with only positive links and fails to handle signed networks which contain both positive and negative links. In this paper, we propose Signed Graph Attention Networks (SiGATs), generalizing GAT to signed networks. SiGAT incorporates graph motifs into GAT to capture two well-known theories in signed network research, i.e., balance theory and status theory. In SiGAT, motifs offer us the flexible structural pattern to aggregate and propagate messages on the signed network to generate node embeddings. We evaluate the proposed SiGAT method by applying it to the signed link prediction task. Experimental results on three real datasets demonstrate that SiGAT outperforms feature-based method, network embedding method and state-of-the-art GNN-based methods like signed graph convolutional network (SGCN).
Graph embedding is an important approach for graph analysis tasks such as node classification and link prediction. The goal of graph embedding is to find a low dimensional representation of graph nodes that preserves the graph information. Recent methods like Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) try to consider node attributes (if available) besides node relations and learn node embeddings for unsupervised and semi-supervised tasks on graphs. On the other hand, multi-layer graph analysis has been received attention recently. However, the existing methods for multi-layer graph embedding cannot incorporate all available information (like node attributes). Moreover, most of them consider either type of nodes or type of edges, and they do not treat within and between layer edges differently. In this paper, we propose a method called MGCN that utilizes the GCN for multi-layer graphs. MGCN embeds nodes of multi-layer graphs using both within and between layers relations and nodes attributes. We evaluate our method on the semi-supervised node classification task. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method to other multi-layer and single-layer competitors and also show the positive effect of using cross-layer edges.
Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have recently become one of the most powerful tools for graph analytics tasks in numerous applications, ranging from social networks and natural language processing to bioinformatics and chemoinformatics, thanks to their ability to capture the complex relationships between concepts. At present, the vast majority of GCNs use a neighborhood aggregation framework to learn a continuous and compact vector, then performing a pooling operation to generalize graph embedding for the classification task. These approaches have two disadvantages in the graph classification task: (1)when only the largest sub-graph structure ($k$-hop neighbor) is used for neighborhood aggregation, a large amount of early-stage information is lost during the graph convolution step; (2) simple average/sum pooling or max pooling utilized, which loses the characteristics of each node and the topology between nodes. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called, dual attention graph convolutional networks (DAGCN) to address these problems. DAGCN automatically learns the importance of neighbors at different hops using a novel attention graph convolution layer, and then employs a second attention component, a self-attention pooling layer, to generalize the graph representation from the various aspects of a matrix graph embedding. The dual attention network is trained in an end-to-end manner for the graph classification task. We compare our model with state-of-the-art graph kernels and other deep learning methods. The experimental results show that our framework not only outperforms other baselines but also achieves a better rate of convergence.
We propose a novel attention gate (AG) model for medical imaging that automatically learns to focus on target structures of varying shapes and sizes. Models trained with AGs implicitly learn to suppress irrelevant regions in an input image while highlighting salient features useful for a specific task. This enables us to eliminate the necessity of using explicit external tissue/organ localisation modules of cascaded convolutional neural networks (CNNs). AGs can be easily integrated into standard CNN architectures such as the U-Net model with minimal computational overhead while increasing the model sensitivity and prediction accuracy. The proposed Attention U-Net architecture is evaluated on two large CT abdominal datasets for multi-class image segmentation. Experimental results show that AGs consistently improve the prediction performance of U-Net across different datasets and training sizes while preserving computational efficiency. The code for the proposed architecture is publicly available.
We present graph attention networks (GATs), novel neural network architectures that operate on graph-structured data, leveraging masked self-attentional layers to address the shortcomings of prior methods based on graph convolutions or their approximations. By stacking layers in which nodes are able to attend over their neighborhoods' features, we enable (implicitly) specifying different weights to different nodes in a neighborhood, without requiring any kind of costly matrix operation (such as inversion) or depending on knowing the graph structure upfront. In this way, we address several key challenges of spectral-based graph neural networks simultaneously, and make our model readily applicable to inductive as well as transductive problems. Our GAT models have achieved or matched state-of-the-art results across four established transductive and inductive graph benchmarks: the Cora, Citeseer and Pubmed citation network datasets, as well as a protein-protein interaction dataset (wherein test graphs remain unseen during training).