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Subclassification and matching are often used in empirical studies to adjust for observed covariates; however, they are largely restricted to relatively simple study designs with a binary treatment and less developed for designs with a continuous exposure. Matching with exposure doses is particularly useful in instrumental variable designs and in understanding the dose-response relationships. In this article, we propose two criteria for optimal subclassification based on subclass homogeneity in the context of having a continuous exposure dose, and propose an efficient polynomial-time algorithm that is guaranteed to find an optimal subclassification with respect to one criterion and serves as a 2-approximation algorithm for the other criterion. We discuss how to incorporate dose and use appropriate penalties to control the number of subclasses in the design. Via extensive simulations, we systematically compare our proposed design to optimal non-bipartite pair matching, and demonstrate that combining our proposed subclassification scheme with regression adjustment helps reduce model dependence for parametric causal inference with a continuous dose. We apply the new design and associated randomization-based inferential procedure to study the effect of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) monitoring during coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery on patients' post-surgery clinical outcomes using Medicare and Medicaid claims data, and find evidence that TEE monitoring lowers patients' all-cause $30$-day mortality rate.

Reference priors are theoretically attractive for the analysis of geostatistical data since they enable automatic Bayesian analysis and have desirable Bayesian and frequentist properties. But their use is hindered by computational hurdles that make their application in practice challenging. In this work, we derive a new class of default priors that approximate reference priors for the parameters of some Gaussian random fields. It is based on an approximation to the integrated likelihood of the covariance parameters derived from the spectral approximation of stationary random fields. This prior depends on the structure of the mean function and the spectral density of the model evaluated at a set of spectral points associated with an auxiliary regular grid. In addition to preserving the desirable Bayesian and frequentist properties, these approximate reference priors are more stable, and their computations are much less onerous than those of exact reference priors. Unlike exact reference priors, the marginal approximate reference prior of correlation parameter is always proper, regardless of the mean function or the smoothness of the correlation function. This property has important consequences for covariance model selection. An illustration comparing default Bayesian analyses is provided with a data set of lead pollution in Galicia, Spain.

The inequality in capital or resource distribution is among the important phenomena observed in populations. The sources of inequality and methods for controlling it are of practical interest. To study this phenomenon, we introduce a model of interaction between agents in the network designed for reducing the inequality in the distribution of capital. To achieve the effect of inequality reduction, we interpret the outcome of the elementary game played in the network such that the wining of the game is translated into the reduction of the inequality. We study different interpretations of the introduced scheme and their impact on the behaviour of agents in the terms of the capital distribution, and we provide examples based on the capital dependent Parrondo's paradox. The results presented in this study provide insight into the mechanics of the inequality formation in the society.

We introduce a class of Markov chains, that contains the model of stochastic approximation by averaging and non-averaging. Using martingale approximation method, we establish various deviation inequalities for separately Lipschitz functions of such a chain, with different moment conditions on some dominating random variables of martingale differences.Finally, we apply these inequalities to the stochastic approximation by averaging and empirical risk minimisation.

We study the problem of learning in the stochastic shortest path (SSP) setting, where an agent seeks to minimize the expected cost accumulated before reaching a goal state. We design a novel model-based algorithm EB-SSP that carefully skews the empirical transitions and perturbs the empirical costs with an exploration bonus to guarantee both optimism and convergence of the associated value iteration scheme. We prove that EB-SSP achieves the minimax regret rate $\widetilde{O}(B_{\star} \sqrt{S A K})$, where $K$ is the number of episodes, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions and $B_{\star}$ bounds the expected cumulative cost of the optimal policy from any state, thus closing the gap with the lower bound. Interestingly, EB-SSP obtains this result while being parameter-free, i.e., it does not require any prior knowledge of $B_{\star}$, nor of $T_{\star}$ which bounds the expected time-to-goal of the optimal policy from any state. Furthermore, we illustrate various cases (e.g., positive costs, or general costs when an order-accurate estimate of $T_{\star}$ is available) where the regret only contains a logarithmic dependence on $T_{\star}$, thus yielding the first horizon-free regret bound beyond the finite-horizon MDP setting.

Music relies heavily on repetition to build structure and meaning. Self-reference occurs on multiple timescales, from motifs to phrases to reusing of entire sections of music, such as in pieces with ABA structure. The Transformer (Vaswani et al., 2017), a sequence model based on self-attention, has achieved compelling results in many generation tasks that require maintaining long-range coherence. This suggests that self-attention might also be well-suited to modeling music. In musical composition and performance, however, relative timing is critically important. Existing approaches for representing relative positional information in the Transformer modulate attention based on pairwise distance (Shaw et al., 2018). This is impractical for long sequences such as musical compositions since their memory complexity for intermediate relative information is quadratic in the sequence length. We propose an algorithm that reduces their intermediate memory requirement to linear in the sequence length. This enables us to demonstrate that a Transformer with our modified relative attention mechanism can generate minute-long compositions (thousands of steps, four times the length modeled in Oore et al., 2018) with compelling structure, generate continuations that coherently elaborate on a given motif, and in a seq2seq setup generate accompaniments conditioned on melodies. We evaluate the Transformer with our relative attention mechanism on two datasets, JSB Chorales and Piano-e-Competition, and obtain state-of-the-art results on the latter.

In this work, we compare three different modeling approaches for the scores of soccer matches with regard to their predictive performances based on all matches from the four previous FIFA World Cups 2002 - 2014: Poisson regression models, random forests and ranking methods. While the former two are based on the teams' covariate information, the latter method estimates adequate ability parameters that reflect the current strength of the teams best. Within this comparison the best-performing prediction methods on the training data turn out to be the ranking methods and the random forests. However, we show that by combining the random forest with the team ability parameters from the ranking methods as an additional covariate we can improve the predictive power substantially. Finally, this combination of methods is chosen as the final model and based on its estimates, the FIFA World Cup 2018 is simulated repeatedly and winning probabilities are obtained for all teams. The model slightly favors Spain before the defending champion Germany. Additionally, we provide survival probabilities for all teams and at all tournament stages as well as the most probable tournament outcome.

Weak supervision, e.g., in the form of partial labels or image tags, is currently attracting significant attention in CNN segmentation as it can mitigate the lack of full and laborious pixel/voxel annotations. Enforcing high-order (global) inequality constraints on the network output, for instance, on the size of the target region, can leverage unlabeled data, guiding training with domain-specific knowledge. Inequality constraints are very flexible because they do not assume exact prior knowledge. However,constrained Lagrangian dual optimization has been largely avoided in deep networks, mainly for computational tractability reasons.To the best of our knowledge, the method of Pathak et al. is the only prior work that addresses deep CNNs with linear constraints in weakly supervised segmentation. It uses the constraints to synthesize fully-labeled training masks (proposals)from weak labels, mimicking full supervision and facilitating dual optimization.We propose to introduce a differentiable term, which enforces inequality constraints directly in the loss function, avoiding expensive Lagrangian dual iterates and proposal generation. From constrained-optimization perspective, our simple approach is not optimal as there is no guarantee that the constraints are satisfied. However, surprisingly,it yields substantially better results than the proposal-based constrained CNNs, while reducing the computational demand for training.In the context of cardiac images, we reached a segmentation performance close to full supervision using a fraction (0.1%) of the full ground-truth labels and image-level tags.While our experiments focused on basic linear constraints such as the target-region size and image tags, our framework can be easily extended to other non-linear constraints.Therefore, it has the potential to close the gap between weakly and fully supervised learning in semantic image segmentation.

Network embedding has attracted considerable research attention recently. However, the existing methods are incapable of handling billion-scale networks, because they are computationally expensive and, at the same time, difficult to be accelerated by distributed computing schemes. To address these problems, we propose RandNE, a novel and simple billion-scale network embedding method. Specifically, we propose a Gaussian random projection approach to map the network into a low-dimensional embedding space while preserving the high-order proximities between nodes. To reduce the time complexity, we design an iterative projection procedure to avoid the explicit calculation of the high-order proximities. Theoretical analysis shows that our method is extremely efficient, and friendly to distributed computing schemes without any communication cost in the calculation. We demonstrate the efficacy of RandNE over state-of-the-art methods in network reconstruction and link prediction tasks on multiple datasets with different scales, ranging from thousands to billions of nodes and edges.