Classic stochastic volatility models assume volatility is unobservable. We use the VIX for consider it observable, and use the Volatility Index: S\&P 500 VIX. This index was designed to measure volatility of S&P 500. We apply it to a different segment: Corporate bond markets. We fit time series models for spreads between corporate and 10-year Treasury bonds. Next, we divide residuals by VIX. Our main idea is such division makes residuals closer to the ideal case of a Gaussian white noise. This is remarkable, since these residuals and VIX come from separate market segments. We also discuss total returns of Bank of America corporate bonds. We conclude with the analysis of long-term behavior of these models.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Forecasting relations between entities is paramount in the current era of data and AI. However, it is often overlooked that real-world relationships are inherently directional, involve more than two entities, and can change with time. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive solution to the problem of forecasting directional relations in a general setting, where relations are higher-order, i.e., directed hyperedges in a hypergraph. This problem has not been previously explored in the existing literature. The primary challenge in solving this problem is that the number of possible hyperedges is exponential in the number of nodes at each event time. To overcome this, we propose a sequential generative approach that segments the forecasting process into multiple stages, each contingent upon the preceding stages, thereby reducing the search space involved in predictions of hyperedges. The first stage involves a temporal point process-based node event forecasting module that identifies the subset of nodes involved in an event. The second stage is a candidate generation module that predicts hyperedge sizes and adjacency vectors for nodes observing events. The final stage is a directed hyperedge predictor that identifies the truth by searching over the set of candidate hyperedges. To validate the effectiveness of our model, we compiled five datasets and conducted an extensive empirical study to assess each downstream task. Our proposed method achieves a performance gain of 32\% and 41\% compared to the state-of-the-art pairwise and hyperedge event forecasting models, respectively, for the event type prediction.
We study the Dominating set problem and Independent Set Problem for dynamic graphs in the vertex-arrival model. We say that a dynamic algorithm for one of these problems is $k$-stable when it makes at most $k$ changes to its output independent set or dominating set upon the arrival of each vertex. We study trade-offs between the stability parameter $k$ of the algorithm and the approximation ratio it achieves. We obtain the following results. 1. We show that there is a constant $\varepsilon^*>0$ such that any dynamic $(1+\varepsilon^*)$-approximation algorithm the for Dominating set problem has stability parameter $\Omega(n)$, even for bipartite graphs of maximum degree 4. 2. We present algorithms with very small stability parameters for the Dominating set problem in the setting where the arrival degree of each vertex is upper bounded by $d$. In particular, we give a $1$-stable $(d+1)^2$-approximation algorithm, a $3$-stable $(9d/2)$-approximation algorithm, and an $O(d)$-stable $O(1)$-approximation algorithm. 3. We show that there is a constant $\varepsilon^*>0$ such that any dynamic $(1+\varepsilon^*)$-approximation algorithm for the Independent Set Problem has stability parameter $\Omega(n)$, even for bipartite graphs of maximum degree $3$. 4. Finally, we present a $2$-stable $O(d)$-approximation algorithm for the Independent Set Problem, in the setting where the average degree of the graph is upper bounded by some constant $d$ at all times. We extend this latter algorithm to the fully dynamic model where vertices can also be deleted, achieving a $6$-stable $O(d)$-approximation algorithm.
Recently, Gaussian splatting has emerged as a strong alternative to NeRF, demonstrating impressive 3D modeling capabilities while requiring only a fraction of the training and rendering time. In this paper, we show how the standard Gaussian splatting framework can be adapted for remote sensing, retaining its high efficiency. This enables us to achieve state-of-the-art performance in just a few minutes, compared to the day-long optimization required by the best-performing NeRF-based Earth observation methods. The proposed framework incorporates remote-sensing improvements from EO-NeRF, such as radiometric correction and shadow modeling, while introducing novel components, including sparsity, view consistency, and opacity regularizations.
It is widely recognised that semiparametric efficient estimation can be hard to achieve in practice: estimators that are in theory efficient may require unattainable levels of accuracy for the estimation of complex nuisance functions. As a consequence, estimators deployed on real datasets are often chosen in a somewhat ad hoc fashion, and may suffer high variance. We study this gap between theory and practice in the context of a broad collection of semiparametric regression models that includes the generalised partially linear model. We advocate using estimators that are robust in the sense that they enjoy $\sqrt{n}$-consistent uniformly over a sufficiently rich class of distributions characterised by certain conditional expectations being estimable by user-chosen machine learning methods. We show that even asking for locally uniform estimation within such a class narrows down possible estimators to those parametrised by certain weight functions. Conversely, we show that such estimators do provide the desired uniform consistency and introduce a novel random forest-based procedure for estimating the optimal weights. We prove that the resulting estimator recovers a notion of $\textbf{ro}$bust $\textbf{s}$emiparametric $\textbf{e}$fficiency (ROSE) and provides a practical alternative to semiparametric efficient estimators. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our ROSE random forest estimator in a variety of semiparametric settings on simulated and real-world data.
Despite their remarkable success, large language models (LLMs) have shown limited ability on applied tasks such as vulnerability detection. We investigate various prompting strategies for vulnerability detection and, as part of this exploration, propose a prompting strategy that integrates natural language descriptions of vulnerabilities with a contrastive chain-of-thought reasoning approach, augmented using contrastive samples from a synthetic dataset. Our study highlights the potential of LLMs to detect vulnerabilities by integrating natural language descriptions, contrastive reasoning, and synthetic examples into a comprehensive prompting framework. Our results show that this approach can enhance LLM understanding of vulnerabilities. On a high-quality vulnerability detection dataset such as SVEN, our prompting strategies can improve accuracies, F1-scores, and pairwise accuracies by 23%, 11%, and 14%, respectively.
In adaptive systems, predictors are used to anticipate changes in the systems state or behavior that may require system adaption, e.g., changing its configuration or adjusting resource allocation. Therefore, the quality of predictors is crucial for the overall reliability and performance of the system under control. This paper studies predictors in systems exhibiting probabilistic and non-deterministic behavior modelled as Markov decision processes (MDPs). Main contributions are the introduction of quantitative notions that measure the effectiveness of predictors in terms of their average capability to predict the occurrence of failures or other undesired system behaviors. The average is taken over all memoryless policies. We study two classes of such notions. One class is inspired by concepts that have been introduced in statistical analysis to explain the impact of features on the decisions of binary classifiers (such as precision, recall, f-score). Second, we study a measure that borrows ideas from recent work on probability-raising causality in MDPs and determines the quality of a predictor by the fraction of memoryless policies under which (the set of states in) the predictor is a probability-raising cause for the considered failure scenario.
A scaled conjugate gradient method that accelerates existing adaptive methods utilizing stochastic gradients is proposed for solving nonconvex optimization problems with deep neural networks. It is shown theoretically that, whether with constant or diminishing learning rates, the proposed method can obtain a stationary point of the problem. Additionally, its rate of convergence with diminishing learning rates is verified to be superior to that of the conjugate gradient method. The proposed method is shown to minimize training loss functions faster than the existing adaptive methods in practical applications of image and text classification. Furthermore, in the training of generative adversarial networks, one version of the proposed method achieved the lowest Frechet inception distance score among those of the adaptive methods.
The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.
This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
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