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This paper explores how the modelling of energy systems may lead to undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We exemplify the problem with two cases: first, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modelling in the 1980s; and second, the modelling activity undertaken in support of the construction of a radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain (Nevada, USA). We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help remedy this issue, which include NUSAP (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing. We demonstrate the potential of these reflexive modelling practices in energy policy making with four additional cases: (i) stakeholders evaluation of the assessment of the external costs of a potential large-scale nuclear accident in Belgium in the context of the ExternE (External Costs of Energy) project; (ii) the case of the ESME (Energy System Modelling Environment) for the creation of UK energy policy; (iii) the NETs (Negative Emission Technologies) uptake in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); and (iv) the Ecological Footprint (EF) indicator. We encourage modellers to widely adopt these approaches to achieve more robust and inclusive modelling activities in the field of energy modelling.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · Networking · 可約的 · 估計/估計量 · 可辨認的 ·
2021 年 7 月 7 日

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

Recent work has proposed stochastic Plackett-Luce (PL) ranking models as a robust choice for optimizing relevance and fairness metrics. Unlike their deterministic counterparts that require heuristic optimization algorithms, PL models are fully differentiable. Theoretically, they can be used to optimize ranking metrics via stochastic gradient descent. However, in practice, the computation of the gradient is infeasible because it requires one to iterate over all possible permutations of items. Consequently, actual applications rely on approximating the gradient via sampling techniques. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm: PL-Rank, that estimates the gradient of a PL ranking model w.r.t. both relevance and fairness metrics. Unlike existing approaches that are based on policy gradients, PL-Rank makes use of the specific structure of PL models and ranking metrics. Our experimental analysis shows that PL-Rank has a greater sample-efficiency and is computationally less costly than existing policy gradients, resulting in faster convergence at higher performance. PL-Rank further enables the industry to apply PL models for more relevant and fairer real-world ranking systems.

Many important real-world problems have action spaces that are high-dimensional, continuous or both, making full enumeration of all possible actions infeasible. Instead, only small subsets of actions can be sampled for the purpose of policy evaluation and improvement. In this paper, we propose a general framework to reason in a principled way about policy evaluation and improvement over such sampled action subsets. This sample-based policy iteration framework can in principle be applied to any reinforcement learning algorithm based upon policy iteration. Concretely, we propose Sampled MuZero, an extension of the MuZero algorithm that is able to learn in domains with arbitrarily complex action spaces by planning over sampled actions. We demonstrate this approach on the classical board game of Go and on two continuous control benchmark domains: DeepMind Control Suite and Real-World RL Suite.

Current training objectives of existing person Re-IDentification (ReID) models only ensure that the loss of the model decreases on selected training batch, with no regards to the performance on samples outside the batch. It will inevitably cause the model to over-fit the data in the dominant position (e.g., head data in imbalanced class, easy samples or noisy samples). %We call the sample that updates the model towards generalizing on more data a generalizable sample. The latest resampling methods address the issue by designing specific criterion to select specific samples that trains the model generalize more on certain type of data (e.g., hard samples, tail data), which is not adaptive to the inconsistent real world ReID data distributions. Therefore, instead of simply presuming on what samples are generalizable, this paper proposes a one-for-more training objective that directly takes the generalization ability of selected samples as a loss function and learn a sampler to automatically select generalizable samples. More importantly, our proposed one-for-more based sampler can be seamlessly integrated into the ReID training framework which is able to simultaneously train ReID models and the sampler in an end-to-end fashion. The experimental results show that our method can effectively improve the ReID model training and boost the performance of ReID models.

When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.

In this paper, we investigate the practical challenges of using reinforcement learning agents for question-answering over knowledge graphs. We examine the performance metrics used by state-of-the-art systems and determine that they are inadequate. More specifically, they do not evaluate the systems correctly for situations when there is no answer available and thus agents optimized for these metrics are poor at modeling confidence. We introduce a simple new performance metric for evaluating question-answering agents that is more representative of practical usage conditions, and optimize for this metric by extending the binary reward structure used in prior work to a ternary reward structure which also rewards an agent for not answering a question rather than giving an incorrect answer. We show that this can drastically improve the precision of answered questions while only not answering a limited number of questions that were previously answered correctly.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have shown an impressive ability to learn complex control policies in high-dimensional environments. However, despite the ever-increasing performance on popular benchmarks such as the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), policies learned by deep RL algorithms often struggle to generalize when evaluated in remarkably similar environments. In this paper, we assess the generalization capabilities of DQN, one of the most traditional deep RL algorithms in the field. We provide evidence suggesting that DQN overspecializes to the training environment. We comprehensively evaluate the impact of traditional regularization methods, $\ell_2$-regularization and dropout, and of reusing the learned representations to improve the generalization capabilities of DQN. We perform this study using different game modes of Atari 2600 games, a recently introduced modification for the ALE which supports slight variations of the Atari 2600 games traditionally used for benchmarking. Despite regularization being largely underutilized in deep RL, we show that it can, in fact, help DQN learn more general features. These features can then be reused and fine-tuned on similar tasks, considerably improving the sample efficiency of DQN.

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been around for decades and been employed to solve various sequential decision-making problems. These algorithms however have faced great challenges when dealing with high-dimensional environments. The recent development of deep learning has enabled RL methods to drive optimal policies for sophisticated and capable agents, which can perform efficiently in these challenging environments. This paper addresses an important aspect of deep RL related to situations that demand multiple agents to communicate and cooperate to solve complex tasks. A survey of different approaches to problems related to multi-agent deep RL (MADRL) is presented, including non-stationarity, partial observability, continuous state and action spaces, multi-agent training schemes, multi-agent transfer learning. The merits and demerits of the reviewed methods will be analyzed and discussed, with their corresponding applications explored. It is envisaged that this review provides insights about various MADRL methods and can lead to future development of more robust and highly useful multi-agent learning methods for solving real-world problems.

The Everyday Sexism Project documents everyday examples of sexism reported by volunteer contributors from all around the world. It collected 100,000 entries in 13+ languages within the first 3 years of its existence. The content of reports in various languages submitted to Everyday Sexism is a valuable source of crowdsourced information with great potential for feminist and gender studies. In this paper, we take a computational approach to analyze the content of reports. We use topic-modelling techniques to extract emerging topics and concepts from the reports, and to map the semantic relations between those topics. The resulting picture closely resembles and adds to that arrived at through qualitative analysis, showing that this form of topic modeling could be useful for sifting through datasets that had not previously been subject to any analysis. More precisely, we come up with a map of topics for two different resolutions of our topic model and discuss the connection between the identified topics. In the low resolution picture, for instance, we found Public space/Street, Online, Work related/Office, Transport, School, Media harassment, and Domestic abuse. Among these, the strongest connection is between Public space/Street harassment and Domestic abuse and sexism in personal relationships.The strength of the relationships between topics illustrates the fluid and ubiquitous nature of sexism, with no single experience being unrelated to another.

The Normalized Cut (NCut) objective function, widely used in data clustering and image segmentation, quantifies the cost of graph partitioning in a way that biases clusters or segments that are balanced towards having lower values than unbalanced partitionings. However, this bias is so strong that it avoids any singleton partitions, even when vertices are very weakly connected to the rest of the graph. Motivated by the B\"uhler-Hein family of balanced cut costs, we propose the family of Compassionately Conservative Balanced (CCB) Cut costs, which are indexed by a parameter that can be used to strike a compromise between the desire to avoid too many singleton partitions and the notion that all partitions should be balanced. We show that CCB-Cut minimization can be relaxed into an orthogonally constrained $\ell_{\tau}$-minimization problem that coincides with the problem of computing Piecewise Flat Embeddings (PFE) for one particular index value, and we present an algorithm for solving the relaxed problem by iteratively minimizing a sequence of reweighted Rayleigh quotients (IRRQ). Using images from the BSDS500 database, we show that image segmentation based on CCB-Cut minimization provides better accuracy with respect to ground truth and greater variability in region size than NCut-based image segmentation.

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