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Climate-induced disasters are and will continue to be on the rise, and thus search-and-rescue (SAR) operations, where the task is to localize and assist one or several people who are missing, become increasingly relevant. In many cases the rough location may be known and a UAV can be deployed to explore a given, confined area to precisely localize the missing people. Due to time and battery constraints it is often critical that localization is performed as efficiently as possible. In this work we approach this type of problem by abstracting it as an aerial view goal localization task in a framework that emulates a SAR-like setup without requiring access to actual UAVs. In this framework, an agent operates on top of an aerial image (proxy for a search area) and is tasked with localizing a goal that is described in terms of visual cues. To further mimic the situation on an actual UAV, the agent is not able to observe the search area in its entirety, not even at low resolution, and thus it has to operate solely based on partial glimpses when navigating towards the goal. To tackle this task, we propose AiRLoc, a reinforcement learning (RL)-based model that decouples exploration (searching for distant goals) and exploitation (localizing nearby goals). Extensive evaluations show that AiRLoc outperforms heuristic search methods as well as alternative learnable approaches, and that it generalizes across datasets, e.g. to disaster-hit areas without seeing a single disaster scenario during training. We also conduct a proof-of-concept study which indicates that the learnable methods outperform humans on average. Code and models have been made publicly available at //github.com/aleksispi/airloc.

This article presents a novel telepresence system for advancing aerial manipulation in dynamic and unstructured environments. The proposed system not only features a haptic device, but also a virtual reality (VR) interface that provides real-time 3D displays of the robot's workspace as well as a haptic guidance to its remotely located operator. To realize this, multiple sensors namely a LiDAR, cameras and IMUs are utilized. For processing of the acquired sensory data, pose estimation pipelines are devised for industrial objects of both known and unknown geometries. We further propose an active learning pipeline in order to increase the sample efficiency of a pipeline component that relies on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) based object detection. All these algorithms jointly address various challenges encountered during the execution of perception tasks in industrial scenarios. In the experiments, exhaustive ablation studies are provided to validate the proposed pipelines. Methodologically, these results commonly suggest how an awareness of the algorithms' own failures and uncertainty (`introspection') can be used tackle the encountered problems. Moreover, outdoor experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the overall system in enhancing aerial manipulation capabilities. In particular, with flight campaigns over days and nights, from spring to winter, and with different users and locations, we demonstrate over 70 robust executions of pick-and-place, force application and peg-in-hole tasks with the DLR cable-Suspended Aerial Manipulator (SAM). As a result, we show the viability of the proposed system in future industrial applications.

Out-of-sample prediction is the acid test of predictive models, yet an independent test dataset is often not available for assessment of the prediction error. For this reason, out-of-sample performance is commonly estimated using data splitting algorithms such as cross-validation or the bootstrap. For quantitative outcomes, the ratio of variance explained to total variance can be summarized by the coefficient of determination or in-sample $R^2$, which is easy to interpret and to compare across different outcome variables. As opposed to the in-sample $R^2$, the out-of-sample $R^2$ has not been well defined and the variability on the out-of-sample $\hat{R}^2$ has been largely ignored. Usually only its point estimate is reported, hampering formal comparison of predictability of different outcome variables. Here we explicitly define the out-of-sample $R^2$ as a comparison of two predictive models, provide an unbiased estimator and exploit recent theoretical advances on uncertainty of data splitting estimates to provide a standard error for the $\hat{R}^2$. The performance of the estimators for the $R^2$ and its standard error are investigated in a simulation study. We demonstrate our new method by constructing confidence intervals and comparing models for prediction of quantitative $\text{Brassica napus}$ and $\text{Zea mays}$ phenotypes based on gene expression data.

In this paper, we propose novel Gaussian process-gated hierarchical mixtures of experts (GPHMEs) that are used for building gates and experts. Unlike in other mixtures of experts where the gating models are linear to the input, the gating functions of our model are inner nodes built with Gaussian processes based on random features that are non-linear and non-parametric. Further, the experts are also built with Gaussian processes and provide predictions that depend on test data. The optimization of the GPHMEs is carried out by variational inference. There are several advantages of the proposed GPHMEs. One is that they outperform tree-based HME benchmarks that partition the data in the input space. Another advantage is that they achieve good performance with reduced complexity. A third advantage of the GPHMEs is that they provide interpretability of deep Gaussian processes and more generally of deep Bayesian neural networks. Our GPHMEs demonstrate excellent performance for large-scale data sets even with quite modest sizes.

Estimation of heterogeneous causal effects - i.e., how effects of policies and treatments vary across subjects - is a fundamental task in causal inference, playing a crucial role in optimal treatment allocation, generalizability, subgroup effects, and more. Many flexible methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) have been proposed in recent years, but questions surrounding optimality have remained largely unanswered. In particular, a minimax theory of optimality has yet to be developed, with the minimax rate of convergence and construction of rate-optimal estimators remaining open problems. In this paper we derive the minimax rate for CATE estimation, in a nonparametric model where distributional components are Holder-smooth, and present a new local polynomial estimator, giving high-level conditions under which it is minimax optimal. More specifically, our minimax lower bound is derived via a localized version of the method of fuzzy hypotheses, combining lower bound constructions for nonparametric regression and functional estimation. Our proposed estimator can be viewed as a local polynomial R-Learner, based on a localized modification of higher-order influence function methods; it is shown to be minimax optimal under a condition on how accurately the covariate distribution is estimated. The minimax rate we find exhibits several interesting features, including a non-standard elbow phenomenon and an unusual interpolation between nonparametric regression and functional estimation rates. The latter quantifies how the CATE, as an estimand, can be viewed as a regression/functional hybrid. We conclude with some discussion of a few remaining open problems.

Differential private optimization for nonconvex smooth objective is considered. In the previous work, the best known utility bound is $\widetilde O(\sqrt{d}/(n\varepsilon_\mathrm{DP}))$ in terms of the squared full gradient norm, which is achieved by Differential Private Gradient Descent (DP-GD) as an instance, where $n$ is the sample size, $d$ is the problem dimensionality and $\varepsilon_\mathrm{DP}$ is the differential privacy parameter. To improve the best known utility bound, we propose a new differential private optimization framework called \emph{DIFF2 (DIFFerential private optimization via gradient DIFFerences)} that constructs a differential private global gradient estimator with possibly quite small variance based on communicated \emph{gradient differences} rather than gradients themselves. It is shown that DIFF2 with a gradient descent subroutine achieves the utility of $\widetilde O(d^{2/3}/(n\varepsilon_\mathrm{DP})^{4/3})$, which can be significantly better than the previous one in terms of the dependence on the sample size $n$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fundamental result to improve the standard utility $\widetilde O(\sqrt{d}/(n\varepsilon_\mathrm{DP}))$ for nonconvex objectives. Additionally, a more computational and communication efficient subroutine is combined with DIFF2 and its theoretical analysis is also given. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate the superiority of DIFF2 framework.

Accurate depth estimation under adverse night conditions has practical impact and applications, such as on autonomous driving and rescue robots. In this work, we studied monocular depth estimation at night time in which various adverse weather, light, and different road conditions exist, with data captured in both RGB and event modalities. Event camera can better capture intensity changes by virtue of its high dynamic range (HDR), which is particularly suitable to be applied at adverse night conditions in which the amount of light is limited in the scene. Although event data can retain visual perception that conventional RGB camera may fail to capture, the lack of texture and color information of event data hinders its applicability to accurately estimate depth alone. To tackle this problem, we propose an event-vision based framework that integrates low-light enhancement for the RGB source, and exploits the complementary merits of RGB and event data. A dataset that includes paired RGB and event streams, and ground truth depth maps has been constructed. Comprehensive experiments have been conducted, and the impact of different adverse weather combinations on the performance of framework has also been investigated. The results have shown that our proposed framework can better estimate monocular depth at adverse nights than six baselines.

A core capability of intelligent systems is the ability to quickly learn new tasks by drawing on prior experience. Gradient (or optimization) based meta-learning has recently emerged as an effective approach for few-shot learning. In this formulation, meta-parameters are learned in the outer loop, while task-specific models are learned in the inner-loop, by using only a small amount of data from the current task. A key challenge in scaling these approaches is the need to differentiate through the inner loop learning process, which can impose considerable computational and memory burdens. By drawing upon implicit differentiation, we develop the implicit MAML algorithm, which depends only on the solution to the inner level optimization and not the path taken by the inner loop optimizer. This effectively decouples the meta-gradient computation from the choice of inner loop optimizer. As a result, our approach is agnostic to the choice of inner loop optimizer and can gracefully handle many gradient steps without vanishing gradients or memory constraints. Theoretically, we prove that implicit MAML can compute accurate meta-gradients with a memory footprint that is, up to small constant factors, no more than that which is required to compute a single inner loop gradient and at no overall increase in the total computational cost. Experimentally, we show that these benefits of implicit MAML translate into empirical gains on few-shot image recognition benchmarks.

This paper introduces an online model for object detection in videos designed to run in real-time on low-powered mobile and embedded devices. Our approach combines fast single-image object detection with convolutional long short term memory (LSTM) layers to create an interweaved recurrent-convolutional architecture. Additionally, we propose an efficient Bottleneck-LSTM layer that significantly reduces computational cost compared to regular LSTMs. Our network achieves temporal awareness by using Bottleneck-LSTMs to refine and propagate feature maps across frames. This approach is substantially faster than existing detection methods in video, outperforming the fastest single-frame models in model size and computational cost while attaining accuracy comparable to much more expensive single-frame models on the Imagenet VID 2015 dataset. Our model reaches a real-time inference speed of up to 15 FPS on a mobile CPU.

In this paper, we present a new method for detecting road users in an urban environment which leads to an improvement in multiple object tracking. Our method takes as an input a foreground image and improves the object detection and segmentation. This new image can be used as an input to trackers that use foreground blobs from background subtraction. The first step is to create foreground images for all the frames in an urban video. Then, starting from the original blobs of the foreground image, we merge the blobs that are close to one another and that have similar optical flow. The next step is extracting the edges of the different objects to detect multiple objects that might be very close (and be merged in the same blob) and to adjust the size of the original blobs. At the same time, we use the optical flow to detect occlusion of objects that are moving in opposite directions. Finally, we make a decision on which information we keep in order to construct a new foreground image with blobs that can be used for tracking. The system is validated on four videos of an urban traffic dataset. Our method improves the recall and precision metrics for the object detection task compared to the vanilla background subtraction method and improves the CLEAR MOT metrics in the tracking tasks for most videos.