Complex, high-dimensional data is used in a wide range of domains to explore problems and make decisions. Analysis of high-dimensional data, however, is vulnerable to the hidden influence of confounding variables, especially as users apply ad hoc filtering operations to visualize only specific subsets of an entire dataset. Thus, visual data-driven analysis can mislead users and encourage mistaken assumptions about causality or the strength of relationships between features. This work introduces a novel visual approach designed to reveal the presence of confounding variables via counterfactual possibilities during visual data analysis. It is implemented in CoFact, an interactive visualization prototype that determines and visualizes \textit{counterfactual subsets} to better support user exploration of feature relationships. Using publicly available datasets, we conducted a controlled user study to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach; the results indicate that users exposed to counterfactual visualizations formed more careful judgments about feature-to-outcome relationships.
Estimating causal relations is vital in understanding the complex interactions in multivariate time series. Non-linear coupling of variables is one of the major challenges inaccurate estimation of cause-effect relations. In this paper, we propose to use deep autoregressive networks (DeepAR) in tandem with counterfactual analysis to infer nonlinear causal relations in multivariate time series. We extend the concept of Granger causality using probabilistic forecasting with DeepAR. Since deep networks can neither handle missing input nor out-of-distribution intervention, we propose to use the Knockoffs framework (Barberand Cand`es, 2015) for generating intervention variables and consequently counterfactual probabilistic forecasting. Knockoff samples are independent of their output given the observed variables and exchangeable with their counterpart variables without changing the underlying distribution of the data. We test our method on synthetic as well as real-world time series datasets. Overall our method outperforms the widely used vector autoregressive Granger causality and PCMCI in detecting nonlinear causal dependency in multivariate time series.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
Deep learning is increasingly used in decision-making tasks. However, understanding how neural networks produce final predictions remains a fundamental challenge. Existing work on interpreting neural network predictions for images often focuses on explaining predictions for single images or neurons. As predictions are often computed from millions of weights that are optimized over millions of images, such explanations can easily miss a bigger picture. We present Summit, an interactive system that scalably and systematically summarizes and visualizes what features a deep learning model has learned and how those features interact to make predictions. Summit introduces two new scalable summarization techniques: (1) activation aggregation discovers important neurons, and (2) neuron-influence aggregation identifies relationships among such neurons. Summit combines these techniques to create the novel attribution graph that reveals and summarizes crucial neuron associations and substructures that contribute to a model's outcomes. Summit scales to large data, such as the ImageNet dataset with 1.2M images, and leverages neural network feature visualization and dataset examples to help users distill large, complex neural network models into compact, interactive visualizations. We present neural network exploration scenarios where Summit helps us discover multiple surprising insights into a prevalent, large-scale image classifier's learned representations and informs future neural network architecture design. The Summit visualization runs in modern web browsers and is open-sourced.
The field of Text-to-Speech has experienced huge improvements last years benefiting from deep learning techniques. Producing realistic speech becomes possible now. As a consequence, the research on the control of the expressiveness, allowing to generate speech in different styles or manners, has attracted increasing attention lately. Systems able to control style have been developed and show impressive results. However the control parameters often consist of latent variables and remain complex to interpret. In this paper, we analyze and compare different latent spaces and obtain an interpretation of their influence on expressive speech. This will enable the possibility to build controllable speech synthesis systems with an understandable behaviour.
Predictive models can fail to generalize from training to deployment environments because of dataset shift, posing a threat to model reliability and the safety of downstream decisions made in practice. Instead of using samples from the target distribution to reactively correct dataset shift, we use graphical knowledge of the causal mechanisms relating variables in a prediction problem to proactively remove relationships that do not generalize across environments, even when these relationships may depend on unobserved variables (violations of the "no unobserved confounders" assumption). To accomplish this, we identify variables with unstable paths of statistical influence and remove them from the model. We also augment the causal graph with latent counterfactual variables that isolate unstable paths of statistical influence, allowing us to retain stable paths that would otherwise be removed. Our experiments demonstrate that models that remove vulnerable variables and use estimates of the latent variables transfer better, often outperforming in the target domain despite some accuracy loss in the training domain.
Autoencoders provide a powerful framework for learning compressed representations by encoding all of the information needed to reconstruct a data point in a latent code. In some cases, autoencoders can "interpolate": By decoding the convex combination of the latent codes for two datapoints, the autoencoder can produce an output which semantically mixes characteristics from the datapoints. In this paper, we propose a regularization procedure which encourages interpolated outputs to appear more realistic by fooling a critic network which has been trained to recover the mixing coefficient from interpolated data. We then develop a simple benchmark task where we can quantitatively measure the extent to which various autoencoders can interpolate and show that our regularizer dramatically improves interpolation in this setting. We also demonstrate empirically that our regularizer produces latent codes which are more effective on downstream tasks, suggesting a possible link between interpolation abilities and learning useful representations.
Current visualization based network interpretation methodssuffer from lacking semantic-level information. In this paper, we introduce the novel task of interpreting classification models using fine grained textual summarization. Along with the label prediction, the network will generate a sentence explaining its decision. Constructing a fully annotated dataset of filter|text pairs is unrealistic because of image to filter response function complexity. We instead propose a weakly-supervised learning algorithm leveraging off-the-shelf image caption annotations. Central to our algorithm is the filter-level attribute probability density function (PDF), learned as a conditional probability through Bayesian inference with the input image and its feature map as latent variables. We show our algorithm faithfully reflects the features learned by the model using rigorous applications like attribute based image retrieval and unsupervised text grounding. We further show that the textual summarization process can help in understanding network failure patterns and can provide clues for further improvements.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have shown great promise in tasks like synthetic image generation, image inpainting, style transfer, and anomaly detection. However, generating discrete data is a challenge. This work presents an adversarial training based correlated discrete data (CDD) generation model. It also details an approach for conditional CDD generation. The results of our approach are presented over two datasets; job-seeking candidates skill set (private dataset) and MNIST (public dataset). From quantitative and qualitative analysis of these results, we show that our model performs better as it leverages inherent correlation in the data, than an existing model that overlooks correlation.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.
Questions that require counting a variety of objects in images remain a major challenge in visual question answering (VQA). The most common approaches to VQA involve either classifying answers based on fixed length representations of both the image and question or summing fractional counts estimated from each section of the image. In contrast, we treat counting as a sequential decision process and force our model to make discrete choices of what to count. Specifically, the model sequentially selects from detected objects and learns interactions between objects that influence subsequent selections. A distinction of our approach is its intuitive and interpretable output, as discrete counts are automatically grounded in the image. Furthermore, our method outperforms the state of the art architecture for VQA on multiple metrics that evaluate counting.