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In inverse problems, many conditional generative models approximate the posterior measure by minimizing a distance between the joint measure and its learned approximation. While this approach also controls the distance between the posterior measures in the case of the Kullback--Leibler divergence, this is in general not hold true for the Wasserstein distance. In this paper, we introduce a conditional Wasserstein distance via a set of restricted couplings that equals the expected Wasserstein distance of the posteriors. Interestingly, the dual formulation of the conditional Wasserstein-1 flow resembles losses in the conditional Wasserstein GAN literature in a quite natural way. We derive theoretical properties of the conditional Wasserstein distance, characterize the corresponding geodesics and velocity fields as well as the flow ODEs. Subsequently, we propose to approximate the velocity fields by relaxing the conditional Wasserstein distance. Based on this, we propose an extension of OT Flow Matching for solving Bayesian inverse problems and demonstrate its numerical advantages on an inverse problem and class-conditional image generation.

Research on social bots aims at advancing knowledge and providing solutions to one of the most debated forms of online manipulation. Yet, social bot research is plagued by widespread biases, hyped results, and misconceptions that set the stage for ambiguities, unrealistic expectations, and seemingly irreconcilable findings. Overcoming such issues is instrumental towards ensuring reliable solutions and reaffirming the validity of the scientific method. In this contribution, we review some recent results in social bots research, highlighting and revising factual errors as well as methodological and conceptual biases. More importantly, we demystify common misconceptions, addressing fundamental points on how social bots research is discussed. Our analysis surfaces the need to discuss research about online disinformation and manipulation in a rigorous, unbiased, and responsible way. This article bolsters such effort by identifying and refuting common fallacious arguments used by both proponents and opponents of social bots research, as well as providing directions toward sound methodologies for future research in the field.

Natural gas consumption by users of pipeline networks is subject to increasing uncertainty that originates from the intermittent nature of electric power loads serviced by gas-fired generators. To enable computationally efficient optimization of gas network flows subject to uncertainty, we develop a finite volume representation of stochastic solutions of hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE) systems on graph-connected domains with nodal coupling and boundary conditions. The representation is used to express the physical constraints in stochastic optimization problems for gas flow allocation subject to uncertain parameters. The method is based on the stochastic finite volume approach that was recently developed for uncertainty quantification in transient flows represented by hyperbolic PDEs on graphs. In this study, we develop optimization formulations for steady-state gas flow over actuated transport networks subject to probabilistic constraints. In addition to the distributions for the physical solutions, we examine the dual variables that are produced by way of the optimization, and interpret them as price distributions that quantify the financial volatility that arises through demand uncertainty modeled in an optimization-driven gas market mechanism. We demonstrate the computation and distributional analysis using a single-pipe example and a small test network.

In this paper, error estimates of classification Random Forests are quantitatively assessed. Based on the initial theoretical framework built by Bates et al. (2023), the true error rate and expected error rate are theoretically and empirically investigated in the context of a variety of error estimation methods common to Random Forests. We show that in the classification case, Random Forests' estimates of prediction error is closer on average to the true error rate instead of the average prediction error. This is opposite the findings of Bates et al. (2023) which are given for logistic regression. We further show that our result holds across different error estimation strategies such as cross-validation, bagging, and data splitting.

Grounding the common-sense reasoning of Large Language Models in physical domains remains a pivotal yet unsolved problem for embodied AI. Whereas prior works have focused on leveraging LLMs directly for planning in symbolic spaces, this work uses LLMs to guide the search of task structures and constraints implicit in multi-step demonstrations. Specifically, we borrow from manipulation planning literature the concept of mode families, which group robot configurations by specific motion constraints, to serve as an abstraction layer between the high-level language representations of an LLM and the low-level physical trajectories of a robot. By replaying a few human demonstrations with synthetic perturbations, we generate coverage over the demonstrations' state space with additional successful executions as well as counterfactuals that fail the task. Our explanation-based learning framework trains an end-to-end differentiable neural network to predict successful trajectories from failures and as a by-product learns classifiers that ground low-level states and images in mode families without dense labeling. The learned grounding classifiers can further be used to translate language plans into reactive policies in the physical domain in an interpretable manner. We show our approach improves the interpretability and reactivity of imitation learning through 2D navigation and simulated and real robot manipulation tasks. Website: //sites.google.com/view/grounding-plans

Turning pass-through network architectures into iterative ones, which use their own output as input, is a well-known approach for boosting performance. In this paper, we argue that such architectures offer an additional benefit: The convergence rate of their successive outputs is highly correlated with the accuracy of the value to which they converge. Thus, we can use the convergence rate as a useful proxy for uncertainty. This results in an approach to uncertainty estimation that provides state-of-the-art estimates at a much lower computational cost than techniques like Ensembles, and without requiring any modifications to the original iterative model. We demonstrate its practical value by embedding it in two application domains: road detection in aerial images and the estimation of aerodynamic properties of 2D and 3D shapes.

We conducted a survey of 135 software engineering (SE) practitioners to understand how they use Generative AI-based chatbots like ChatGPT for SE tasks. We find that they want to use ChatGPT for SE tasks like software library selection but often worry about the truthfulness of ChatGPT responses. We developed a suite of techniques and a tool called CID (ChatGPT Incorrectness Detector) to automatically test and detect the incorrectness in ChatGPT responses. CID is based on the iterative prompting to ChatGPT by asking it contextually similar but textually divergent questions (using an approach that utilizes metamorphic relationships in texts). The underlying principle in CID is that for a given question, a response that is different from other responses (across multiple incarnations of the question) is likely an incorrect response. In a benchmark study of library selection, we show that CID can detect incorrect responses from ChatGPT with an F1-score of 0.74 - 0.75.

We analyze the behavior of stochastic approximation algorithms where iterates, in expectation, progress towards an objective at each step. When progress is proportional to the step size of the algorithm, we prove exponential concentration bounds. These tail-bounds contrast asymptotic normality results, which are more frequently associated with stochastic approximation. The methods that we develop rely on a geometric ergodicity proof. This extends a result on Markov chains due to Hajek (1982) to the area of stochastic approximation algorithms. We apply our results to several different Stochastic Approximation algorithms, specifically Projected Stochastic Gradient Descent, Kiefer-Wolfowitz and Stochastic Frank-Wolfe algorithms. When applicable, our results prove faster $O(1/t)$ and linear convergence rates for Projected Stochastic Gradient Descent with a non-vanishing gradient.

We initiate the study of utilizing Quantum Langevin Dynamics (QLD) to solve optimization problems, particularly those non-convex objective functions that present substantial obstacles for traditional gradient descent algorithms. Specifically, we examine the dynamics of a system coupled with an infinite heat bath. This interaction induces both random quantum noise and a deterministic damping effect to the system, which nudge the system towards a steady state that hovers near the global minimum of objective functions. We theoretically prove the convergence of QLD in convex landscapes, demonstrating that the average energy of the system can approach zero in the low temperature limit with an exponential decay rate correlated with the evolution time. Numerically, we first show the energy dissipation capability of QLD by retracing its origins to spontaneous emission. Furthermore, we conduct detailed discussion of the impact of each parameter. Finally, based on the observations when comparing QLD with classical Fokker-Plank-Smoluchowski equation, we propose a time-dependent QLD by making temperature and $\hbar$ time-dependent parameters, which can be theoretically proven to converge better than the time-independent case and also outperforms a series of state-of-the-art quantum and classical optimization algorithms in many non-convex landscapes.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) is widely used to learn a powerful representation of graph-structured data. Recent work demonstrates that transferring knowledge from self-supervised tasks to downstream tasks could further improve graph representation. However, there is an inherent gap between self-supervised tasks and downstream tasks in terms of optimization objective and training data. Conventional pre-training methods may be not effective enough on knowledge transfer since they do not make any adaptation for downstream tasks. To solve such problems, we propose a new transfer learning paradigm on GNNs which could effectively leverage self-supervised tasks as auxiliary tasks to help the target task. Our methods would adaptively select and combine different auxiliary tasks with the target task in the fine-tuning stage. We design an adaptive auxiliary loss weighting model to learn the weights of auxiliary tasks by quantifying the consistency between auxiliary tasks and the target task. In addition, we learn the weighting model through meta-learning. Our methods can be applied to various transfer learning approaches, it performs well not only in multi-task learning but also in pre-training and fine-tuning. Comprehensive experiments on multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that the proposed methods can effectively combine auxiliary tasks with the target task and significantly improve the performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.