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Predictive modeling in healthcare continues to be an active actuarial research topic as more insurance companies aim to maximize the potential of Machine Learning approaches to increase their productivity and efficiency. In this paper, the authors deployed three regression-based ensemble ML models that combine variations of decision trees through Extreme Gradient Boosting, Gradient-boosting Machine, and Random Forest) methods in predicting medical insurance costs. Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods SHapley Additive exPlanations and Individual Conditional Expectation plots were deployed to discover and explain the key determinant factors that influence medical insurance premium prices in the dataset. The dataset used comprised 986 records and is publicly available in the KAGGLE repository. The models were evaluated using four performance evaluation metrics, including R-squared, Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results show that all models produced impressive outcomes; however, the XGBoost model achieved a better overall performance although it also expanded more computational resources, while the RF model recorded a lesser prediction error and consumed far fewer computing resources than the XGBoost model. Furthermore, we compared the outcome of both XAi methods in identifying the key determinant features that influenced the PremiumPrices for each model and whereas both XAi methods produced similar outcomes, we found that the ICE plots showed in more detail the interactions between each variable than the SHAP analysis which seemed to be more high-level. It is the aim of the authors that the contributions of this study will help policymakers, insurers, and potential medical insurance buyers in their decision-making process for selecting the right policies that meet their specific needs.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 優化器 · 噪聲 · 全局優化 · 相互獨立的 ·
2024 年 1 月 15 日

Bearing measurements,as the most common modality in nature, have recently gained traction in multi-robot systems to enhance mutual localization and swarm collaboration. Despite their advantages, challenges such as sensory noise, obstacle occlusion, and uncoordinated swarm motion persist in real-world scenarios, potentially leading to erroneous state estimation and undermining the system's flexibility, practicality, and robustness.In response to these challenges, in this paper we address theoretical and practical problem related to both mutual localization and swarm planning.Firstly, we propose a certifiable mutual localization algorithm.It features a concise problem formulation coupled with lossless convex relaxation, enabling independence from initial values and globally optimal relative pose recovery.Then, to explore how detection noise and swarm motion influence estimation optimality, we conduct a comprehensive analysis on the interplay between robots' mutual spatial relationship and mutual localization. We develop a differentiable metric correlated with swarm trajectories to explicitly evaluate the noise resistance of optimal estimation.By establishing a finite and pre-computable threshold for this metric and accordingly generating swarm trajectories, the estimation optimality can be strictly guaranteed under arbitrary noise. Based on these findings, an optimization-based swarm planner is proposed to generate safe and smooth trajectories, with consideration of both inter-robot visibility and estimation optimality.Through numerical simulations, we evaluate the optimality and certifiablity of our estimator, and underscore the significance of our planner in enhancing estimation performance.The results exhibit considerable potential of our methods to pave the way for advanced closed-loop intelligence in swarm systems.

Ensuring the quality of software systems through testing is essential, yet maintaining test cases poses significant challenges and costs. The need for frequent updates to align with the evolving system under test often entails high complexity and cost for maintaining these test cases. Further, unrepaired broken test cases can degrade test suite quality and disrupt the software development process, wasting developers' time. To address this challenge, we present TaRGet (Test Repair GEneraTor), a novel approach leveraging pre-trained code language models for automated test case repair. TaRGet treats test repair as a language translation task, employing a two-step process to fine-tune a language model based on essential context data characterizing the test breakage. To evaluate our approach, we introduce TaRBench, a comprehensive benchmark we developed covering 45,373 broken test repairs across 59 open-source projects. Our results demonstrate TaRGet's effectiveness, achieving a 66.1% exact match accuracy. Furthermore, our study examines the effectiveness of TaRGet across different test repair scenarios. We provide a practical guide to predict situations where the generated test repairs might be less reliable. We also explore whether project-specific data is always necessary for fine-tuning and if our approach can be effective on new projects.

Social media data is plagued by the redundancy problem caused by its noisy nature, leading to increased training time and model bias. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach called generative deduplication. It aims to remove duplicate text from noisy social media data and mitigate model bias. By doing so, it can improve social media language understanding performance and save training time. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed generative deduplication can effectively reduce training samples while improving performance. This evidence suggests the effectiveness of generative deduplication and its importance in social media language understanding.

The development of autonomous agents which can interact with other agents to accomplish a given task is a core area of research in artificial intelligence and machine learning. Towards this goal, the Autonomous Agents Research Group develops novel machine learning algorithms for autonomous systems control, with a specific focus on deep reinforcement learning and multi-agent reinforcement learning. Research problems include scalable learning of coordinated agent policies and inter-agent communication; reasoning about the behaviours, goals, and composition of other agents from limited observations; and sample-efficient learning based on intrinsic motivation, curriculum learning, causal inference, and representation learning. This article provides a broad overview of the ongoing research portfolio of the group and discusses open problems for future directions.

With the rise of powerful pre-trained vision-language models like CLIP, it becomes essential to investigate ways to adapt these models to downstream datasets. A recently proposed method named Context Optimization (CoOp) introduces the concept of prompt learning -- a recent trend in NLP -- to the vision domain for adapting pre-trained vision-language models. Specifically, CoOp turns context words in a prompt into a set of learnable vectors and, with only a few labeled images for learning, can achieve huge improvements over intensively-tuned manual prompts. In our study we identify a critical problem of CoOp: the learned context is not generalizable to wider unseen classes within the same dataset, suggesting that CoOp overfits base classes observed during training. To address the problem, we propose Conditional Context Optimization (CoCoOp), which extends CoOp by further learning a lightweight neural network to generate for each image an input-conditional token (vector). Compared to CoOp's static prompts, our dynamic prompts adapt to each instance and are thus less sensitive to class shift. Extensive experiments show that CoCoOp generalizes much better than CoOp to unseen classes, even showing promising transferability beyond a single dataset; and yields stronger domain generalization performance as well. Code is available at //github.com/KaiyangZhou/CoOp.

Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.

We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.

Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.

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