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We study the existence of polynomial kernels, for parameterized problems without a polynomial kernel on general graphs, when restricted to graphs of bounded twin-width. Our main result is that a polynomial kernel for $k$-Dominating Set on graphs of twin-width at most 4 would contradict a standard complexity-theoretic assumption. The reduction is quite involved, especially to get the twin-width upper bound down to 4, and can be tweaked to work for Connected $k$-Dominating Set and Total $k$-Dominating Set (albeit with a worse upper bound on the twin-width). The $k$-Independent Set problem admits the same lower bound by a much simpler argument, previously observed [ICALP '21], which extends to $k$-Independent Dominating Set, $k$-Path, $k$-Induced Path, $k$-Induced Matching, etc. On the positive side, we obtain a simple quadratic vertex kernel for Connected $k$-Vertex Cover and Capacitated $k$-Vertex Cover on graphs of bounded twin-width. Interestingly the kernel applies to graphs of Vapnik-Chervonenkis density 1, and does not require a witness sequence. We also present a more intricate $O(k^{1.5})$ vertex kernel for Connected $k$-Vertex Cover. Finally we show that deciding if a graph has twin-width at most 1 can be done in polynomial time, and observe that most optimization/decision graph problems can be solved in polynomial time on graphs of twin-width at most 1.

We study the problem of the non-parametric estimation for the density of the stationary distribution of the multivariate stochastic differential equation with jumps (Xt) , when the dimension d is bigger than 3. From the continuous observation of the sampling path on [0, T ] we show that, under anisotropic Holder smoothness constraints, kernel based estimators can achieve fast convergence rates. In particular , they are as fast as the ones found by Dalalyan and Reiss [9] for the estimation of the invariant density in the case without jumps under isotropic Holder smoothness constraints. Moreover, they are faster than the ones found by Strauch [29] for the invariant density estimation of continuous stochastic differential equations, under anisotropic Holder smoothness constraints. Furthermore, we obtain a minimax lower bound on the L2-risk for pointwise estimation, with the same rate up to a log(T) term. It implies that, on a class of diffusions whose invariant density belongs to the anisotropic Holder class we are considering, it is impossible to find an estimator with a rate of estimation faster than the one we propose.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) consist of a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of intervention, that finds effective treatments for individual patients according to patient information history. DTRs can be estimated from models which include the interaction between treatment and a small number of covariates which are often chosen a priori. However, with increasingly large and complex data being collected, it is difficult to know which prognostic factors might be relevant in the treatment rule. Therefore, a more data-driven approach of selecting these covariates might improve the estimated decision rules and simplify models to make them easier to interpret. We propose a variable selection method for DTR estimation using penalized dynamic weighted least squares. Our method has the strong heredity property, that is, an interaction term can be included in the model only if the corresponding main terms have also been selected. Through simulations, we show our method has both the double robustness property and the oracle property, and the newly proposed methods compare favorably with other variable selection approaches.

In this paper, a functional partial quantile regression approach, a quantile regression analog of the functional partial least squares regression, is proposed to estimate the function-on-function linear quantile regression model. A partial quantile covariance function is first used to extract the functional partial quantile regression basis functions. The extracted basis functions are then used to obtain the functional partial quantile regression components and estimate the final model. In our proposal, the functional forms of the discretely observed random variables are first constructed via a finite-dimensional basis function expansion method. The functional partial quantile regression constructed using the functional random variables is approximated via the partial quantile regression constructed using the basis expansion coefficients. The proposed method uses an iterative procedure to extract the partial quantile regression components. A Bayesian information criterion is used to determine the optimum number of retained components. The proposed functional partial quantile regression model allows for more than one functional predictor in the model. However, the true form of the proposed model is unspecified, as the relevant predictors for the model are unknown in practice. Thus, a forward variable selection procedure is used to determine the significant predictors for the proposed model. Moreover, a case-sampling-based bootstrap procedure is used to construct pointwise prediction intervals for the functional response. The predictive performance of the proposed method is evaluated using several Monte Carlo experiments under different data generation processes and error distributions. Through an empirical data example, air quality data are analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

$\ell_1$-penalized quantile regression is widely used for analyzing high-dimensional data with heterogeneity. It is now recognized that the $\ell_1$-penalty introduces non-negligible estimation bias, while a proper use of concave regularization may lead to estimators with refined convergence rates and oracle properties as the signal strengthens. Although folded concave penalized $M$-estimation with strongly convex loss functions have been well studied, the extant literature on quantile regression is relatively silent. The main difficulty is that the quantile loss is piecewise linear: it is non-smooth and has curvature concentrated at a single point. To overcome the lack of smoothness and strong convexity, we propose and study a convolution-type smoothed quantile regression with iteratively reweighted $\ell_1$-regularization. The resulting smoothed empirical loss is twice continuously differentiable and (provably) locally strongly convex with high probability. We show that the iteratively reweighted $\ell_1$-penalized smoothed quantile regression estimator, after a few iterations, achieves the optimal rate of convergence, and moreover, the oracle rate and the strong oracle property under an almost necessary and sufficient minimum signal strength condition. Extensive numerical studies corroborate our theoretical results.

Propensity score methods have been shown to be powerful in obtaining efficient estimators of average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data, especially under the existence of confounding factors. When estimating, deciding which type of covariates need to be included in the propensity score function is important, since incorporating some unnecessary covariates may amplify both bias and variance of estimators of ATE. In this paper, we show that including additional instrumental variables that satisfy the exclusion restriction for outcome will do harm to the statistical efficiency. Also, we prove that, controlling for covariates that appear as outcome predictors, i.e. predict the outcomes and are irrelevant to the exposures, can help reduce the asymptotic variance of ATE estimation. We also note that, efficiently estimating the ATE by non-parametric or semi-parametric methods require the estimated propensity score function, as described in Hirano et al. (2003)\cite{Hirano2003}. Such estimation procedure usually asks for many regularity conditions, Rothe (2016)\cite{Rothe2016} also illustrated this point and proposed a known propensity score (KPS) estimator that requires mild regularity conditions and is still fully efficient. In addition, we introduce a linearly modified (LM) estimator that is nearly efficient in most general settings and need not estimation of the propensity score function, hence convenient to calculate. The construction of this estimator borrows idea from the interaction estimator of Lin (2013)\cite{Lin2013}, in which regression adjustment with interaction terms are applied to deal with data arising from a completely randomized experiment. As its name suggests, the LM estimator can be viewed as a linear modification on the IPW estimator using known propensity scores. We will also investigate its statistical properties both analytically and numerically.

Point processes in time have a wide range of applications that include the claims arrival process in insurance or the analysis of queues in operations research. Due to advances in technology, such samples of point processes are increasingly encountered. A key object of interest is the local intensity function. It has a straightforward interpretation that allows to understand and explore point process data. We consider functional approaches for point processes, where one has a sample of repeated realizations of the point process. This situation is inherently connected with Cox processes, where the intensity functions of the replications are modeled as random functions. Here we study a situation where one records covariates for each replication of the process, such as the daily temperature for bike rentals. For modeling point processes as responses with vector covariates as predictors we propose a novel regression approach for the intensity function that is intrinsically nonparametric. While the intensity function of a point process that is only observed once on a fixed domain cannot be identified, we show how covariates and repeated observations of the process can be utilized to make consistent estimation possible, and we also derive asymptotic rates of convergence without invoking parametric assumptions.

We consider the classical problems of estimating the mean of an $n$-dimensional normally (with identity covariance matrix) or Poisson distributed vector under the squared loss. In a Bayesian setting the optimal estimator is given by the prior-dependent conditional mean. In a frequentist setting various shrinkage methods were developed over the last century. The framework of empirical Bayes, put forth by Robbins (1956), combines Bayesian and frequentist mindsets by postulating that the parameters are independent but with an unknown prior and aims to use a fully data-driven estimator to compete with the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior. The central figure of merit is the regret, namely, the total excess risk over the Bayes risk in the worst case (over the priors). Although this paradigm was introduced more than 60 years ago, little is known about the asymptotic scaling of the optimal regret in the nonparametric setting. We show that for the Poisson model with compactly supported and subexponential priors, the optimal regret scales as $\Theta((\frac{\log n}{\log\log n})^2)$ and $\Theta(\log^3 n)$, respectively, both attained by the original estimator of Robbins. For the normal mean model, the regret is shown to be at least $\Omega((\frac{\log n}{\log\log n})^2)$ and $\Omega(\log^2 n)$ for compactly supported and subgaussian priors, respectively, the former of which resolves the conjecture of Singh (1979) on the impossibility of achieving bounded regret; before this work, the best regret lower bound was $\Omega(1)$. In addition to the empirical Bayes setting, these results are shown to hold in the compound setting where the parameters are deterministic. As a side application, the construction in this paper also leads to improved or new lower bounds for density estimation of Gaussian and Poisson mixtures.

We introduce a new methodology for two-sample testing of high-dimensional linear regression coefficients without assuming that those coefficients are individually estimable. The procedure works by first projecting the matrices of covariates and response vectors along directions that are complementary in sign in a subset of the coordinates, a process which we call 'complementary sketching'. The resulting projected covariates and responses are aggregated to form two test statistics. We show that our procedure has essentially optimal asymptotic power under Gaussian designs with a general class of design covariance matrices when the difference between the two regression coefficients is sparse and dense respectively. Simulations confirm that our methods perform well in a broad class of settings.

We study the fundamental problem of ReLU regression, where the goal is to fit Rectified Linear Units (ReLUs) to data. This supervised learning task is efficiently solvable in the realizable setting, but is known to be computationally hard with adversarial label noise. In this work, we focus on ReLU regression in the Massart noise model, a natural and well-studied semi-random noise model. In this model, the label of every point is generated according to a function in the class, but an adversary is allowed to change this value arbitrarily with some probability, which is {\em at most} $\eta < 1/2$. We develop an efficient algorithm that achieves exact parameter recovery in this model under mild anti-concentration assumptions on the underlying distribution. Such assumptions are necessary for exact recovery to be information-theoretically possible. We demonstrate that our algorithm significantly outperforms naive applications of $\ell_1$ and $\ell_2$ regression on both synthetic and real data.