Stock prices forecasting has always been a challenging task. Although many research projects adopt machine learning and deep learning algorithms to address the problem, few of them pay attention to the varying degrees of dependencies between stock prices. In this paper we introduce a hybrid model that improves stock price prediction by emphasizing the dependencies between adjacent stock prices. The proposed model, ResNLS, is mainly composed of two neural architectures, ResNet and LSTM. ResNet serves as a feature extractor to identify dependencies between stock prices across time windows, while LSTM analyses the initial time-series data with the combination of dependencies which considered as residuals. In predicting the SSE Composite Index, our experiment reveals that when the closing price data for the previous 5 consecutive trading days is used as the input, the performance of the model (ResNLS-5) is optimal compared to those with other inputs. Furthermore, ResNLS-5 outperforms vanilla CNN, RNN, LSTM, and BiLSTM models in terms of prediction accuracy. It also demonstrates at least a 20% improvement over the current state-of-the-art baselines. To verify whether ResNLS-5 can help clients effectively avoid risks and earn profits in the stock market, we construct a quantitative trading framework for back testing. The experimental results show that the trading strategy based on predictions from ResNLS-5 can successfully mitigate losses during declining stock prices and generate profits in the periods of rising stock prices.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Existing learning-based solutions to medical image segmentation have two important shortcomings. First, for most new segmentation task, a new model has to be trained or fine-tuned. This requires extensive resources and machine learning expertise, and is therefore often infeasible for medical researchers and clinicians. Second, most existing segmentation methods produce a single deterministic segmentation mask for a given image. In practice however, there is often considerable uncertainty about what constitutes the correct segmentation, and different expert annotators will often segment the same image differently. We tackle both of these problems with Tyche, a model that uses a context set to generate stochastic predictions for previously unseen tasks without the need to retrain. Tyche differs from other in-context segmentation methods in two important ways. (1) We introduce a novel convolution block architecture that enables interactions among predictions. (2) We introduce in-context test-time augmentation, a new mechanism to provide prediction stochasticity. When combined with appropriate model design and loss functions, Tyche can predict a set of plausible diverse segmentation candidates for new or unseen medical images and segmentation tasks without the need to retrain.
Precise estimation of treatment effects is crucial for evaluating intervention effectiveness. While deep learning models have exhibited promising performance in learning counterfactual representations for treatment effect estimation (TEE), a major limitation in most of these models is that they treat the entire population as a homogeneous group, overlooking the diversity of treatment effects across potential subgroups that have varying treatment effects. This limitation restricts the ability to precisely estimate treatment effects and provide subgroup-specific treatment recommendations. In this paper, we propose a novel treatment effect estimation model, named SubgroupTE, which incorporates subgroup identification in TEE. SubgroupTE identifies heterogeneous subgroups with different treatment responses and more precisely estimates treatment effects by considering subgroup-specific causal effects. In addition, SubgroupTE iteratively optimizes subgrouping and treatment effect estimation networks to enhance both estimation and subgroup identification. Comprehensive experiments on the synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets exhibit the outstanding performance of SubgroupTE compared with the state-of-the-art models on treatment effect estimation. Additionally, a real-world study demonstrates the capabilities of SubgroupTE in enhancing personalized treatment recommendations for patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) by advancing treatment effect estimation with subgroup identification.
Learning effective joint representations has been a central task in multimodal sentiment analysis. Previous methods focus on leveraging the correlations between different modalities and enhancing performance through sophisticated fusion techniques. However, challenges still exist due to the inherent heterogeneity of distinct modalities, which may lead to distributional gap, impeding the full exploitation of inter-modal information and resulting in redundancy and impurity in the information extracted from features. To address this problem, we introduce the Multimodal Information Disentanglement (MInD) approach. MInD decomposes the multimodal inputs into a modality-invariant component, a modality-specific component, and a remnant noise component for each modality through a shared encoder and multiple private encoders. The shared encoder aims to explore the shared information and commonality across modalities, while the private encoders are deployed to capture the distinctive information and characteristic features. These representations thus furnish a comprehensive perspective of the multimodal data, facilitating the fusion process instrumental for subsequent prediction tasks. Furthermore, MInD improves the learned representations by explicitly modeling the task-irrelevant noise in an adversarial manner. Experimental evaluations conducted on benchmark datasets, including CMU-MOSI, CMU-MOSEI, and UR-Funny, demonstrate MInD's superior performance over existing state-of-the-art methods in both multimodal emotion recognition and multimodal humor detection tasks.
Image registration has traditionally been done using two distinct approaches: learning based methods, relying on robust deep neural networks, and optimization-based methods, applying complex mathematical transformations to warp images accordingly. Of course, both paradigms offer advantages and disadvantages, and, in this work, we seek to combine their respective strengths into a single streamlined framework, using the outputs of the learning based method as initial parameters for optimization while prioritizing computational power for the image pairs that offer the greatest loss. Our investigations showed improvements of up to 1.6% in test data, while maintaining the same inference time, and a substantial 1.0% points performance gain in deformation field smoothness.
Diffusion models (DMs) have shown great potential for high-quality image synthesis. However, when it comes to producing images with complex scenes, how to properly describe both image global structures and object details remains a challenging task. In this paper, we present Frido, a Feature Pyramid Diffusion model performing a multi-scale coarse-to-fine denoising process for image synthesis. Our model decomposes an input image into scale-dependent vector quantized features, followed by a coarse-to-fine gating for producing image output. During the above multi-scale representation learning stage, additional input conditions like text, scene graph, or image layout can be further exploited. Thus, Frido can be also applied for conditional or cross-modality image synthesis. We conduct extensive experiments over various unconditioned and conditional image generation tasks, ranging from text-to-image synthesis, layout-to-image, scene-graph-to-image, to label-to-image. More specifically, we achieved state-of-the-art FID scores on five benchmarks, namely layout-to-image on COCO and OpenImages, scene-graph-to-image on COCO and Visual Genome, and label-to-image on COCO. Code is available at //github.com/davidhalladay/Frido.
Traffic forecasting is an important factor for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been applied in traffic forecasting problems to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in the transportation systems as well as the contextual information, graph neural networks (GNNs) are introduced as new tools and have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of recent research using different GNNs, e.g., graph convolutional and graph attention networks, in various traffic forecasting problems, e.g., road traffic flow and speed forecasting, passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit systems, demand forecasting in ride-hailing platforms, etc. We also present a collection of open data and source resources for each problem, as well as future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first comprehensive survey that explores the application of graph neural networks for traffic forecasting problems. We have also created a public Github repository to update the latest papers, open data and source resources.
Graph representation learning resurges as a trending research subject owing to the widespread use of deep learning for Euclidean data, which inspire various creative designs of neural networks in the non-Euclidean domain, particularly graphs. With the success of these graph neural networks (GNN) in the static setting, we approach further practical scenarios where the graph dynamically evolves. Existing approaches typically resort to node embeddings and use a recurrent neural network (RNN, broadly speaking) to regulate the embeddings and learn the temporal dynamics. These methods require the knowledge of a node in the full time span (including both training and testing) and are less applicable to the frequent change of the node set. In some extreme scenarios, the node sets at different time steps may completely differ. To resolve this challenge, we propose EvolveGCN, which adapts the graph convolutional network (GCN) model along the temporal dimension without resorting to node embeddings. The proposed approach captures the dynamism of the graph sequence through using an RNN to evolve the GCN parameters. Two architectures are considered for the parameter evolution. We evaluate the proposed approach on tasks including link prediction, edge classification, and node classification. The experimental results indicate a generally higher performance of EvolveGCN compared with related approaches. The code is available at \url{//github.com/IBM/EvolveGCN}.
This paper surveys the machine learning literature and presents machine learning as optimization models. Such models can benefit from the advancement of numerical optimization techniques which have already played a distinctive role in several machine learning settings. Particularly, mathematical optimization models are presented for commonly used machine learning approaches for regression, classification, clustering, and deep neural networks as well new emerging applications in machine teaching and empirical model learning. The strengths and the shortcomings of these models are discussed and potential research directions are highlighted.
We study the problem of learning to reason in large scale knowledge graphs (KGs). More specifically, we describe a novel reinforcement learning framework for learning multi-hop relational paths: we use a policy-based agent with continuous states based on knowledge graph embeddings, which reasons in a KG vector space by sampling the most promising relation to extend its path. In contrast to prior work, our approach includes a reward function that takes the accuracy, diversity, and efficiency into consideration. Experimentally, we show that our proposed method outperforms a path-ranking based algorithm and knowledge graph embedding methods on Freebase and Never-Ending Language Learning datasets.
Learning from a few examples remains a key challenge in machine learning. Despite recent advances in important domains such as vision and language, the standard supervised deep learning paradigm does not offer a satisfactory solution for learning new concepts rapidly from little data. In this work, we employ ideas from metric learning based on deep neural features and from recent advances that augment neural networks with external memories. Our framework learns a network that maps a small labelled support set and an unlabelled example to its label, obviating the need for fine-tuning to adapt to new class types. We then define one-shot learning problems on vision (using Omniglot, ImageNet) and language tasks. Our algorithm improves one-shot accuracy on ImageNet from 87.6% to 93.2% and from 88.0% to 93.8% on Omniglot compared to competing approaches. We also demonstrate the usefulness of the same model on language modeling by introducing a one-shot task on the Penn Treebank.
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