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Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a Bayesian approach: Parameter and prediction uncertainties become easily available, facilitating rigorous statistical analysis. Furthermore, prior knowledge can be incorporated. However, so far, there have been no scalable techniques capable of combining both structural and parameter uncertainty. In this paper, we apply the concept of model uncertainty as a framework for structural learning in BNNs and hence make inference in the joint space of structures/models and parameters. Moreover, we suggest an adaptation of a scalable variational inference approach with reparametrization of marginal inclusion probabilities to incorporate the model space constraints. Experimental results on a range of benchmark datasets show that we obtain comparable accuracy results with the competing models, but based on methods that are much more sparse than ordinary BNNs.

The decreasing cost and improved sensor and monitoring system technology (e.g. fiber optics and strain gauges) have led to more measurements in close proximity to each other. When using such spatially dense measurement data in Bayesian system identification strategies, the correlation in the model prediction error can become significant. The widely adopted assumption of uncorrelated Gaussian error may lead to inaccurate parameter estimation and overconfident predictions, which may lead to sub-optimal decisions. This paper addresses the challenges of performing Bayesian system identification for structures when large datasets are used, considering both spatial and temporal dependencies in the model uncertainty. We present an approach to efficiently evaluate the log-likelihood function, and we utilize nested sampling to compute the evidence for Bayesian model selection. The approach is first demonstrated on a synthetic case and then applied to a (measured) real-world steel bridge. The results show that the assumption of dependence in the model prediction uncertainties is decisively supported by the data. The proposed developments enable the use of large datasets and accounting for the dependency when performing Bayesian system identification, even when a relatively large number of uncertain parameters is inferred.

Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parametrized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units. In such models, there may be so many free parameters that the model fits the training data perfectly. As a motivating example, we first investigate high-dimensional linear regression for imputing wage data, where we find that models with many more covariates than sample size can outperform simple ones. As our main contribution, we document the performance of high-dimensional synthetic control estimators with many control units. We find that adding control units can help improve imputation performance even beyond the point where the pre-treatment fit is perfect. We then provide a unified theoretical perspective on the performance of these high-dimensional models. Specifically, we show that more complex models can be interpreted as model-averaging estimators over simpler ones, which we link to an improvement in average performance. This perspective yields concrete insights into the use of synthetic control when control units are many relative to the number of pre-treatment periods.

Fern\'andez-Dur\'an and Gregorio-Dom\'inguez (2014) defined a family of probability distributions for a vector of circular random variables by considering multiple nonnegative trigonometric sums. These distributions are highly flexible and can present numerous modes and skewness. Several operations on these multivariate distributions were translated into operations on the vector of parameters; for instance, marginalization involves calculating the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a matrix, and independence among subsets of the vector of circular variables translates to a Kronecker product of the corresponding subsets of the vector of parameters. The derivation of marginal and conditional densities from the joint multivariate density is important when applying this model in practice to real datasets. A goodness-of-fit test based on the characteristic function and an alternative parameter estimation algorithm for high-dimensional circular data was presented and applied to a real dataset on the daily times of occurrence of maxima and minima of prices in financial markets.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size $n$ is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in $\mathbb{R}^K$, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a $\ell_2$ distance of at most $\varepsilon$ from the true simplex (for any $\varepsilon>0$). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have $n\ge\left(K^2/\varepsilon^2\right)e^{\Omega\left(K/\mathrm{SNR}^2\right)}$ samples, where $\mathrm{SNR}$ stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as $\mathrm{SNR}\ge\Omega\left(K^{1/2}\right)$, the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in \citep{ashtiani2018nearly}, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

We consider dependent clustering of observations in groups. The proposed model, called the plaid atoms model (PAM), estimates a set of clusters for each group and allows some clusters to be either shared with other groups or uniquely possessed by the group. PAM is based on an extension to the well-known stick-breaking process by adding zero as a possible value for the cluster weights, resulting in a zero-augmented beta (ZAB) distribution in the model. As a result, ZAB allows some cluster weights to be exactly zero in multiple groups, thereby enabling shared and unique atoms across groups. We explore theoretical properties of PAM and show its connection to known Bayesian nonparametric models. We propose an efficient slice sampler for posterior inference. Minor extensions of the proposed model for multivariate or count data are presented. Simulation studies and applications using real-world datasets illustrate the model's desirable performance.

We study a secret sharing problem with three secrets where the secrets are allowed to be related to each other, i.e., only certain combinations of the three secrets are permitted. The dealer produces three shares such that every pair of shares reveals a unique secret and reveals nothing about the other two secrets, other than what can be inferred from the revealed secret. For the case of binary secrets, we exactly determine the minimum amount of randomness required by the dealer, for each possible set of permitted combinations. Our characterization is based on new lower and upper bounds.

Chernoff approximations are a flexible and powerful tool of functional analysis, which can be used, in particular, to find numerically approximate solutions of some differential equations with variable coefficients. For many classes of equations such approximations have already been constructed since pioneering papers of Prof. O.G.Somlyanov in 2000, however, the speed of their convergence to the exact solution has not been properly studied. We select the heat equation (because its exact solutions are already known) as a simple yet informative model example for the study of the rate of convergence of Chernoff approximations. Examples illustrating the rate of convergence of Chernoff approximations to the solution of the Cauchy problem for the heat equation are constructed in the paper. Numerically we show that for initial conditions that are smooth enough the order of approximation is equal to the order of Chernoff tangency of the Chernoff function used. We also consider not smooth enough initial conditions and show how H\"older class of initial condition is related to the rate of convergence. This method of study in the future can be applied to general second order parabolic equation with variable coefficients by a slight modification of our Python 3 code. This arXiv version of the text is a supplementary material for our journal article. Here we include all the written text from the article and additionally all illustrations (Appendix A) and full text of the Python 3 code (Appendix B).

The well-known discrete Fourier transform (DFT) can easily be generalized to arbitrary nodes in the spatial domain. The fast procedure for this generalization is referred to as nonequispaced fast Fourier transform (NFFT). Various applications such as MRI, solution of PDEs, etc., are interested in the inverse problem, i.e., computing Fourier coefficients from given nonequispaced data. In this paper we survey different kinds of approaches to tackle this problem. In contrast to iterative procedures, where multiple iteration steps are needed for computing a solution, we focus especially on so-called direct inversion methods. We review density compensation techniques and introduce a new scheme that leads to an exact reconstruction for trigonometric polynomials. In addition, we consider a matrix optimization approach using Frobenius norm minimization to obtain an inverse NFFT.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data contain high levels of noise and artifacts. To avoid contamination of downstream analyses, fMRI-based studies must identify and remove these noise sources prior to statistical analysis. One common approach is the "scrubbing" of fMRI volumes that are thought to contain high levels of noise. However, existing scrubbing techniques are based on ad hoc measures of signal change. We consider scrubbing via outlier detection, where volumes containing artifacts are considered multidimensional outliers. Robust multivariate outlier detection methods are proposed using robust distances (RDs), which are related to the Mahalanobis distance. These RDs have a known distribution when the data are i.i.d. normal, and that distribution can be used to determine a threshold for outliers where fMRI data violate these assumptions. Here, we develop a robust multivariate outlier detection method that is applicable to non-normal data. The objective is to obtain threshold values to flag outlying volumes based on their RDs. We propose two threshold candidates that embark on the same two steps, but the choice of which depends on a researcher's purpose. Our main steps are dimension reduction and selection, robust univariate outlier imputation to get rid of the effect of outliers on the distribution, and estimating an outlier threshold based on the upper quantile of the RD distribution without outliers. The first threshold candidate is an upper quantile of the empirical distribution of RDs obtained from the imputed data. The second threshold candidate calculates the upper quantile of the RD distribution that a nonparametric bootstrap uses to account for uncertainty in the empirical quantile. We compare our proposed fMRI scrubbing method to motion scrubbing, data-driven scrubbing, and restrictive parametric multivariate outlier detection methods.