Designing profitable and reliable trading strategies is challenging in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Existing works applied deep reinforcement learning methods and optimistically reported increased profits in backtesting, which may suffer from the false positive issue due to overfitting. In this paper, we propose a practical approach to address backtest overfitting for cryptocurrency trading using deep reinforcement learning. First, we formulate the detection of backtest overfitting as a hypothesis test. Then, we train the DRL agents, estimate the probability of overfitting, and reject the overfitted agents, increasing the chance of good trading performance. Finally, on 10 cryptocurrencies over a testing period from 05/01/2022 to 06/27/2022 (during which the crypto market crashed two times), we show that the less overfitted deep reinforcement learning agents have a higher return than that of more overfitted agents, an equal weight strategy, and the S&P DBM Index (market benchmark), offering confidence in possible deployment to a real market.
As neural networks increasingly make critical decisions in high-stakes settings, monitoring and explaining their behavior in an understandable and trustworthy manner is a necessity. One commonly used type of explainer is post hoc feature attribution, a family of methods for giving each feature in an input a score corresponding to its influence on a model's output. A major limitation of this family of explainers in practice is that they can disagree on which features are more important than others. Our contribution in this paper is a method of training models with this disagreement problem in mind. We do this by introducing a Post hoc Explainer Agreement Regularization (PEAR) loss term alongside the standard term corresponding to accuracy, an additional term that measures the difference in feature attribution between a pair of explainers. We observe on three datasets that we can train a model with this loss term to improve explanation consensus on unseen data, and see improved consensus between explainers other than those used in the loss term. We examine the trade-off between improved consensus and model performance. And finally, we study the influence our method has on feature attribution explanations.
Reinforcement learning has been applied in operation research and has shown promise in solving large combinatorial optimization problems. However, existing works focus on developing neural network architectures for certain problems. These works lack the flexibility to incorporate recent advances in reinforcement learning, as well as the flexibility of customizing model architectures for operation research problems. In this work, we analyze the end-to-end autoregressive models for vehicle routing problems and show that these models can benefit from the recent advances in reinforcement learning with a careful re-implementation of the model architecture. In particular, we re-implemented the Attention Model and trained it with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) in CleanRL, showing at least 8 times speed up in training time. We hereby introduce RLOR, a flexible framework for Deep Reinforcement Learning for Operation Research. We believe that a flexible framework is key to developing deep reinforcement learning models for operation research problems. The code of our work is publicly available at //github.com/cpwan/RLOR.
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of supply chains and the role of digital management to react to dynamic changes in the environment. In this work, we focus on developing dynamic inventory ordering policies for a multi-echelon, i.e. multi-stage, supply chain. Traditional inventory optimization methods aim to determine a static reordering policy. Thus, these policies are not able to adjust to dynamic changes such as those observed during the COVID-19 crisis. On the other hand, conventional strategies offer the advantage of being interpretable, which is a crucial feature for supply chain managers in order to communicate decisions to their stakeholders. To address this limitation, we propose an interpretable reinforcement learning approach that aims to be as interpretable as the traditional static policies while being as flexible and environment-agnostic as other deep learning-based reinforcement learning solutions. We propose to use Neural Additive Models as an interpretable dynamic policy of a reinforcement learning agent, showing that this approach is competitive with a standard full connected policy. Finally, we use the interpretability property to gain insights into a complex ordering strategy for a simple, linear three-echelon inventory supply chain.
Federated Semi-supervised Learning (FSSL) combines techniques from both fields of federated and semi-supervised learning to improve the accuracy and performance of models in a distributed environment by using a small fraction of labeled data and a large amount of unlabeled data. Without the need to centralize all data in one place for training, it collect updates of model training after devices train models at local, and thus can protect the privacy of user data. However, during the federal training process, some of the devices fail to collect enough data for local training, while new devices will be included to the group training. This leads to an unbalanced global data distribution and thus affect the performance of the global model training. Most of the current research is focusing on class imbalance with a fixed number of classes, while little attention is paid to data imbalance with a variable number of classes. Therefore, in this paper, we propose Federated Semi-supervised Learning for Class Variable Imbalance (FCVI) to solve class variable imbalance. The class-variable learning algorithm is used to mitigate the data imbalance due to changes of the number of classes. Our scheme is proved to be significantly better than baseline methods, while maintaining client privacy.
Federated learning, which allows multiple client devices in a network to jointly train a machine learning model without direct exposure of clients' data, is an emerging distributed learning technique due to its nature of privacy preservation. However, it has been found that models trained with federated learning usually have worse performance than their counterparts trained in the standard centralized learning mode, especially when the training data is imbalanced. In the context of federated learning, data imbalance may occur either locally one one client device, or globally across many devices. The complexity of different types of data imbalance has posed challenges to the development of federated learning technique, especially considering the need of relieving data imbalance issue and preserving data privacy at the same time. Therefore, in the literature, many attempts have been made to handle class imbalance in federated learning. In this paper, we present a detailed review of recent advancements along this line. We first introduce various types of class imbalance in federated learning, after which we review existing methods for estimating the extent of class imbalance without the need of knowing the actual data to preserve data privacy. After that, we discuss existing methods for handling class imbalance in FL, where the advantages and disadvantages of the these approaches are discussed. We also summarize common evaluation metrics for class imbalanced tasks, and point out potential future directions.
While Reinforcement Learning (RL) achieves tremendous success in sequential decision-making problems of many domains, it still faces key challenges of data inefficiency and the lack of interpretability. Interestingly, many researchers have leveraged insights from the causality literature recently, bringing forth flourishing works to unify the merits of causality and address well the challenges from RL. As such, it is of great necessity and significance to collate these Causal Reinforcement Learning (CRL) works, offer a review of CRL methods, and investigate the potential functionality from causality toward RL. In particular, we divide existing CRL approaches into two categories according to whether their causality-based information is given in advance or not. We further analyze each category in terms of the formalization of different models, ranging from the Markov Decision Process (MDP), Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP), Multi-Arm Bandits (MAB), and Dynamic Treatment Regime (DTR). Moreover, we summarize the evaluation matrices and open sources while we discuss emerging applications, along with promising prospects for the future development of CRL.
The past few years have seen rapid progress in combining reinforcement learning (RL) with deep learning. Various breakthroughs ranging from games to robotics have spurred the interest in designing sophisticated RL algorithms and systems. However, the prevailing workflow in RL is to learn tabula rasa, which may incur computational inefficiency. This precludes continuous deployment of RL algorithms and potentially excludes researchers without large-scale computing resources. In many other areas of machine learning, the pretraining paradigm has shown to be effective in acquiring transferable knowledge, which can be utilized for a variety of downstream tasks. Recently, we saw a surge of interest in Pretraining for Deep RL with promising results. However, much of the research has been based on different experimental settings. Due to the nature of RL, pretraining in this field is faced with unique challenges and hence requires new design principles. In this survey, we seek to systematically review existing works in pretraining for deep reinforcement learning, provide a taxonomy of these methods, discuss each sub-field, and bring attention to open problems and future directions.
Over the past few years, we have seen fundamental breakthroughs in core problems in machine learning, largely driven by advances in deep neural networks. At the same time, the amount of data collected in a wide array of scientific domains is dramatically increasing in both size and complexity. Taken together, this suggests many exciting opportunities for deep learning applications in scientific settings. But a significant challenge to this is simply knowing where to start. The sheer breadth and diversity of different deep learning techniques makes it difficult to determine what scientific problems might be most amenable to these methods, or which specific combination of methods might offer the most promising first approach. In this survey, we focus on addressing this central issue, providing an overview of many widely used deep learning models, spanning visual, sequential and graph structured data, associated tasks and different training methods, along with techniques to use deep learning with less data and better interpret these complex models --- two central considerations for many scientific use cases. We also include overviews of the full design process, implementation tips, and links to a plethora of tutorials, research summaries and open-sourced deep learning pipelines and pretrained models, developed by the community. We hope that this survey will help accelerate the use of deep learning across different scientific domains.
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a popular paradigm for addressing sequential decision tasks in which the agent has only limited environmental feedback. Despite many advances over the past three decades, learning in many domains still requires a large amount of interaction with the environment, which can be prohibitively expensive in realistic scenarios. To address this problem, transfer learning has been applied to reinforcement learning such that experience gained in one task can be leveraged when starting to learn the next, harder task. More recently, several lines of research have explored how tasks, or data samples themselves, can be sequenced into a curriculum for the purpose of learning a problem that may otherwise be too difficult to learn from scratch. In this article, we present a framework for curriculum learning (CL) in reinforcement learning, and use it to survey and classify existing CL methods in terms of their assumptions, capabilities, and goals. Finally, we use our framework to find open problems and suggest directions for future RL curriculum learning research.
This paper presents a new multi-objective deep reinforcement learning (MODRL) framework based on deep Q-networks. We propose the use of linear and non-linear methods to develop the MODRL framework that includes both single-policy and multi-policy strategies. The experimental results on two benchmark problems including the two-objective deep sea treasure environment and the three-objective mountain car problem indicate that the proposed framework is able to converge to the optimal Pareto solutions effectively. The proposed framework is generic, which allows implementation of different deep reinforcement learning algorithms in different complex environments. This therefore overcomes many difficulties involved with standard multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) methods existing in the current literature. The framework creates a platform as a testbed environment to develop methods for solving various problems associated with the current MORL. Details of the framework implementation can be referred to //www.deakin.edu.au/~thanhthi/drl.htm.