We develop EigenVI, an eigenvalue-based approach for black-box variational inference (BBVI). EigenVI constructs its variational approximations from orthogonal function expansions. For distributions over $\mathbb{R}^D$, the lowest order term in these expansions provides a Gaussian variational approximation, while higher-order terms provide a systematic way to model non-Gaussianity. These approximations are flexible enough to model complex distributions (multimodal, asymmetric), but they are simple enough that one can calculate their low-order moments and draw samples from them. EigenVI can also model other types of random variables (e.g., nonnegative, bounded) by constructing variational approximations from different families of orthogonal functions. Within these families, EigenVI computes the variational approximation that best matches the score function of the target distribution by minimizing a stochastic estimate of the Fisher divergence. Notably, this optimization reduces to solving a minimum eigenvalue problem, so that EigenVI effectively sidesteps the iterative gradient-based optimizations that are required for many other BBVI algorithms. (Gradient-based methods can be sensitive to learning rates, termination criteria, and other tunable hyperparameters.) We use EigenVI to approximate a variety of target distributions, including a benchmark suite of Bayesian models from posteriordb. On these distributions, we find that EigenVI is more accurate than existing methods for Gaussian BBVI.
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The multi-modal perception methods are thriving in the autonomous driving field due to their better usage of complementary data from different sensors. Such methods depend on calibration and synchronization between sensors to get accurate environmental information. There have already been studies about space-alignment robustness in autonomous driving object detection process, however, the research for time-alignment is relatively few. As in reality experiments, LiDAR point clouds are more challenging for real-time data transfer, our study used historical frames of LiDAR to better align features when the LiDAR data lags exist. We designed a Timealign module to predict and combine LiDAR features with observation to tackle such time misalignment based on SOTA GraphBEV framework.
We consider the bidimensional Stokes problem for incompressible fluids in stream function-vorticity. For this problem, the classical finite elements method of degree one converges only to order one-half for the L2 norm of the vorticity. We propose to use harmonic functions to approach the vorticity along the boundary. Discrete harmonics are functions that are used in practice to derive a new numerical method. We prove that we obtain with this numerical scheme an error of order one for the L2 norm of the vorticity.
Studying unified model averaging estimation for situations with complicated data structures, we propose a novel model averaging method based on cross-validation (MACV). MACV unifies a large class of new and existing model averaging estimators and covers a very general class of loss functions. Furthermore, to reduce the computational burden caused by the conventional leave-subject/one-out cross validation, we propose a SEcond-order-Approximated Leave-one/subject-out (SEAL) cross validation, which largely improves the computation efficiency. In the context of non-independent and non-identically distributed random variables, we establish the unified theory for analyzing the asymptotic behaviors of the proposed MACV and SEAL methods, where the number of candidate models is allowed to diverge with sample size. To demonstrate the breadth of the proposed methodology, we exemplify four optimal model averaging estimators under four important situations, i.e., longitudinal data with discrete responses, within-cluster correlation structure modeling, conditional prediction in spatial data, and quantile regression with a potential correlation structure. We conduct extensive simulation studies and analyze real-data examples to illustrate the advantages of the proposed methods.
We consider the problem of causal inference based on observational data (or the related missing data problem) with a binary or discrete treatment variable. In that context, we study inference for the counterfactual density functions and contrasts thereof, which can provide more nuanced information than counterfactual means and the average treatment effect. We impose the shape-constraint of log-concavity, a type of unimodality constraint, on the counterfactual densities, and then develop doubly robust estimators of the log-concave counterfactual density based on augmented inverse-probability weighted pseudo-outcomes. We provide conditions under which the estimator is consistent in various global metrics. We also develop asymptotically valid pointwise confidence intervals for the counterfactual density functions and differences and ratios thereof, which serve as a building block for more comprehensive analyses of distributional differences. We also present a method for using our estimator to implement density confidence bands.
Unlabeled sensing is a linear inverse problem with permuted measurements. We propose an alternating minimization (AltMin) algorithm with a suitable initialization for two widely considered permutation models: partially shuffled/$k$-sparse permutations and $r$-local/block diagonal permutations. Key to the performance of the AltMin algorithm is the initialization. For the exact unlabeled sensing problem, assuming either a Gaussian measurement matrix or a sub-Gaussian signal, we bound the initialization error in terms of the number of blocks $s$ and the number of shuffles $k$. Experimental results show that our algorithm is fast, applicable to both permutation models, and robust to choice of measurement matrix. We also test our algorithm on several real datasets for the linked linear regression problem and show superior performance compared to baseline methods.
Two sequential estimators are proposed for the odds p/(1-p) and log odds log(p/(1-p)) respectively, using independent Bernoulli random variables with parameter p as inputs. The estimators are unbiased, and guarantee that the variance of the estimation error divided by the true value of the odds, or the variance of the estimation error of the log odds, are less than a target value for any p in (0,1). The estimators are close to optimal in the sense of Wolfowitz's bound.
An extremely schematic model of the forces acting an a sailing yacht equipped with a system of foils is here presented and discussed. The role of the foils is to raise the hull from the water in order to reduce the total resistance and then increase the speed. Some CFD simulations are providing the total resistance of the bare hull at some values of speed and displacement, as well as the characteristics (drag and lift coefficients) of the 2D foil sections used for the appendages. A parametric study has been performed for the characterization of a foil of finite dimensions. The equilibrium of the vertical forces and longitudinal moments, as well as a reduced displacement, is obtained by controlling the pitch angle of the foils. The value of the total resistance of the yacht with foils is then compared with the case without foils, evidencing the speed regime where an advantage is obtained, if any.
Districting is a complex combinatorial problem that consists in partitioning a geographical area into small districts. In logistics, it is a major strategic decision determining operating costs for several years. Solving districting problems using traditional methods is intractable even for small geographical areas and existing heuristics often provide sub-optimal results. We present a structured learning approach to find high-quality solutions to real-world districting problems in a few minutes. It is based on integrating a combinatorial optimization layer, the capacitated minimum spanning tree problem, into a graph neural network architecture. To train this pipeline in a decision-aware fashion, we show how to construct target solutions embedded in a suitable space and learn from target solutions. Experiments show that our approach outperforms existing methods as it can significantly reduce costs on real-world cities.
D&R is a statistical approach designed to handle large and complex datasets. It partitions the dataset into several manageable subsets and subsequently applies the analytic method to each subset independently to obtain results. Finally, the results from each subset are combined to yield the results for the entire dataset. D&R strategies can be implemented to fit GLMs to datasets too large for conventional methods. Several D&R strategies are available for different GLMs, some of which are theoretically justified but lack practical validation. A significant limitation is the theoretical and practical justification for estimating combined standard errors and confidence intervals. This paper reviews D&R strategies for GLMs and proposes a method to determine the combined standard error for D&R-based estimators. In addition to the traditional dataset division procedures, we propose a different division method named sequential partitioning for D&R-based estimators on GLMs. We show that the obtained D&R estimator with the proposed standard error attains equivalent efficiency as the full data estimate. We illustrate this on a large synthetic dataset and verify that the results from D&R are accurate and identical to those from other available R packages.
We present a novel computational framework to assess the structural integrity of welds. In the first stage of the simulation framework, local fractions of microstructural constituents within weld regions are predicted based on steel composition and welding parameters. The resulting phase fraction maps are used to define heterogeneous properties that are subsequently employed in structural integrity assessments using an elastoplastic phase field fracture model. The framework is particularised to predicting failure in hydrogen pipelines, demonstrating its potential to assess the feasibility of repurposing existing pipeline infrastructure to transport hydrogen. First, the process model is validated against experimental microhardness maps for vintage and modern pipeline welds. Additionally, the influence of welding conditions on hardness and residual stresses is investigated, demonstrating that variations in heat input, filler material composition, and weld bead order can significantly affect the properties within the weld region. Coupled hydrogen diffusion-fracture simulations are then conducted to determine the critical pressure at which hydrogen transport pipelines will fail. To this end, the model is enriched with a microstructure-sensitive description of hydrogen transport and hydrogen-dependent fracture resistance. The analysis of an X52 pipeline reveals that even 2 mm defects in a hard heat-affected zone can drastically reduce the critical failure pressure.
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