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Generalized linear models (GLMs) are popular for data-analysis in almost all quantitative sciences, but the choice of likelihood family and link function is often difficult. This motivates the search for likelihoods and links that minimize the impact of potential misspecification. We perform a large-scale simulation study on double-bounded and lower-bounded response data where we systematically vary both true and assumed likelihoods and links. In contrast to previous studies, we also study posterior calibration and uncertainty metrics in addition to point-estimate accuracy. Our results indicate that certain likelihoods and links can be remarkably robust to misspecification, performing almost on par with their respective true counterparts. Additionally, normal likelihood models with identity link (i.e., linear regression) often achieve calibration comparable to the more structurally faithful alternatives, at least in the studied scenarios. On the basis of our findings, we provide practical suggestions for robust likelihood and link choices in GLMs.

In this paper I propose a generative model of supervised learning that unifies two approaches to supervised learning, using a concept of a correct loss function. Addressing two measurability problems, which have been ignored in statistical learning theory, I propose to use convergence in outer probability to characterize the consistency of a learning algorithm. Building upon these results, I extend a result due to Cucker-Smale, which addresses the learnability of a regression model, to the setting of a conditional probability estimation problem. Additionally, I present a variant of Vapnik-Stefanuyk's regularization method for solving stochastic ill-posed problems, and using it to prove the generalizability of overparameterized supervised learning models.

This work presents an abstract framework for the design, implementation, and analysis of the multiscale spectral generalized finite element method (MS-GFEM), a particular numerical multiscale method originally proposed in [I. Babuska and R. Lipton, Multiscale Model.\;\,Simul., 9 (2011), pp.~373--406]. MS-GFEM is a partition of unity method employing optimal local approximation spaces constructed from local spectral problems. We establish a general local approximation theory demonstrating exponential convergence with respect to local degrees of freedom under certain assumptions, with explicit dependence on key problem parameters. Our framework applies to a broad class of multiscale PDEs with $L^{\infty}$-coefficients in both continuous and discrete, finite element settings, including highly indefinite problems (convection-dominated diffusion, as well as the high-frequency Helmholtz, Maxwell and elastic wave equations with impedance boundary conditions), and higher-order problems. Notably, we prove a local convergence rate of $O(e^{-cn^{1/d}})$ for MS-GFEM for all these problems, improving upon the $O(e^{-cn^{1/(d+1)}})$ rate shown by Babuska and Lipton. Moreover, based on the abstract local approximation theory for MS-GFEM, we establish a unified framework for showing low-rank approximations to multiscale PDEs. This framework applies to the aforementioned problems, proving that the associated Green's functions admit an $O(|\log\epsilon|^{d})$-term separable approximation on well-separated domains with error $\epsilon>0$. Our analysis improves and generalizes the result in [M. Bebendorf and W. Hackbusch, Numerische Mathematik, 95 (2003), pp.~1-28] where an $O(|\log\epsilon|^{d+1})$-term separable approximation was proved for Poisson-type problems.

In high performance computing environments, we observe an ongoing increase in the available numbers of cores. This development calls for re-emphasizing performance (scalability) analysis and speedup laws as suggested in the literature (e.g., Amdahl's law and Gustafson's law), with a focus on asymptotic performance. Understanding speedup and efficiency issues of algorithmic parallelism is useful for several purposes, including the optimization of system operations, temporal predictions on the execution of a program, and the analysis of asymptotic properties and the determination of speedup bounds. However, the literature is fragmented and shows a large diversity and heterogeneity of speedup models and laws. These phenomena make it challenging to obtain an overview of the models and their relationships, to identify the determinants of performance in a given algorithmic and computational context, and, finally, to determine the applicability of performance models and laws to a particular parallel computing setting. In this work, we provide a generic speedup (and thus also efficiency) model for homogeneous computing environments. Our approach generalizes many prominent models suggested in the literature and allows showing that they can be considered special cases of a unifying approach. The genericity of the unifying speedup model is achieved through parameterization. Considering combinations of parameter ranges, we identify six different asymptotic speedup cases and eight different asymptotic efficiency cases. Jointly applying these speedup and efficiency cases, we derive eleven scalability cases, from which we build a scalability typology. Researchers can draw upon our typology to classify their speedup model and to determine the asymptotic behavior when the number of parallel processing units increases. In addition, our results may be used to address various extensions of our setting.

By establishing an interesting connection between ordinary Bell polynomials and rational convolution powers, some composition and inverse relations of Bell polynomials as well as explicit expressions for convolution roots of sequences are obtained. Based on these results, a new method is proposed for calculation of partial Bell polynomials based on prime factorization. It is shown that this method is more efficient than the conventional recurrence procedure for computing Bell polynomials in most cases, requiring far less arithmetic operations. A detailed analysis of the computation complexity is provided, followed by some numerical evaluations.

Feedforward neural networks (FNNs) are typically viewed as pure prediction algorithms, and their strong predictive performance has led to their use in many machine-learning applications. However, their flexibility comes with an interpretability trade-off; thus, FNNs have been historically less popular among statisticians. Nevertheless, classical statistical theory, such as significance testing and uncertainty quantification, is still relevant. Supplementing FNNs with methods of statistical inference, and covariate-effect visualisations, can shift the focus away from black-box prediction and make FNNs more akin to traditional statistical models. This can allow for more inferential analysis, and, hence, make FNNs more accessible within the statistical-modelling context.

Addressing the reproducibility crisis in artificial intelligence through the validation of reported experimental results is a challenging task. It necessitates either the reimplementation of techniques or a meticulous assessment of papers for deviations from the scientific method and best statistical practices. To facilitate the validation of reported results, we have developed numerical techniques capable of identifying inconsistencies between reported performance scores and various experimental setups in machine learning problems, including binary/multiclass classification and regression. These consistency tests are integrated into the open-source package mlscorecheck, which also provides specific test bundles designed to detect systematically recurring flaws in various fields, such as retina image processing and synthetic minority oversampling.

To form precipitation datasets that are accurate and, at the same time, have high spatial densities, data from satellites and gauges are often merged in the literature. However, uncertainty estimates for the data acquired in this manner are scarcely provided, although the importance of uncertainty quantification in predictive modelling is widely recognized. Furthermore, the benefits that machine learning can bring to the task of providing such estimates have not been broadly realized and properly explored through benchmark experiments. The present study aims at filling in this specific gap by conducting the first benchmark tests on the topic. On a large dataset that comprises 15-year-long monthly data spanning across the contiguous United States, we extensively compared six learners that are, by their construction, appropriate for predictive uncertainty quantification. These are the quantile regression (QR), quantile regression forests (QRF), generalized random forests (GRF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) and quantile regression neural networks (QRNN). The comparison referred to the competence of the learners in issuing predictive quantiles at nine levels that facilitate a good approximation of the entire predictive probability distribution, and was primarily based on the quantile and continuous ranked probability skill scores. Three types of predictor variables (i.e., satellite precipitation variables, distances between a point of interest and satellite grid points, and elevation at a point of interest) were used in the comparison and were additionally compared with each other. This additional comparison was based on the explainable machine learning concept of feature importance. The results suggest that the order from the best to the worst of the learners for the task investigated is the following: LightGBM, QRF, GRF, GBM, QRNN and QR...

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has been marked by the large language models exhibiting human-like intelligence. However, these models also present unprecedented challenges to energy consumption and environmental sustainability. One promising solution is to revisit analogue computing, a technique that predates digital computing and exploits emerging analogue electronic devices, such as resistive memory, which features in-memory computing, high scalability, and nonvolatility. However, analogue computing still faces the same challenges as before: programming nonidealities and expensive programming due to the underlying devices physics. Here, we report a universal solution, software-hardware co-design using structural plasticity-inspired edge pruning to optimize the topology of a randomly weighted analogue resistive memory neural network. Software-wise, the topology of a randomly weighted neural network is optimized by pruning connections rather than precisely tuning resistive memory weights. Hardware-wise, we reveal the physical origin of the programming stochasticity using transmission electron microscopy, which is leveraged for large-scale and low-cost implementation of an overparameterized random neural network containing high-performance sub-networks. We implemented the co-design on a 40nm 256K resistive memory macro, observing 17.3% and 19.9% accuracy improvements in image and audio classification on FashionMNIST and Spoken digits datasets, as well as 9.8% (2%) improvement in PR (ROC) in image segmentation on DRIVE datasets, respectively. This is accompanied by 82.1%, 51.2%, and 99.8% improvement in energy efficiency thanks to analogue in-memory computing. By embracing the intrinsic stochasticity and in-memory computing, this work may solve the biggest obstacle of analogue computing systems and thus unleash their immense potential for next-generation AI hardware.

It is well known that artificial neural networks initialized from independent and identically distributed priors converge to Gaussian processes in the limit of large number of neurons per hidden layer. In this work we prove an analogous result for Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs). Namely, we show that the outputs of certain models based on Haar random unitary or orthogonal deep QNNs converge to Gaussian processes in the limit of large Hilbert space dimension $d$. The derivation of this result is more nuanced than in the classical case due to the role played by the input states, the measurement observable, and the fact that the entries of unitary matrices are not independent. An important consequence of our analysis is that the ensuing Gaussian processes cannot be used to efficiently predict the outputs of the QNN via Bayesian statistics. Furthermore, our theorems imply that the concentration of measure phenomenon in Haar random QNNs is worse than previously thought, as we prove that expectation values and gradients concentrate as $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{1}{e^d \sqrt{d}}\right)$. Finally, we discuss how our results improve our understanding of concentration in $t$-designs.