Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or machine learning estimators. These methods typically require that all the confounders are observed to ensure identification of the effects. We contribute by showing how valid semiparametric inference can be obtained in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models. We propose uncertainty intervals which allow for unobserved confounding, and show that the resulting inference is valid when the amount of unobserved confounding is small relative to the sample size; the latter is formalized in terms of convergence rates. Simulation experiments illustrate the finite sample properties of the proposed intervals and investigate an alternative procedure that improves the empirical coverage of the intervals when the amount of unobserved confounding is large. Finally, a case study on the effect of smoking during pregnancy on birth weight is used to illustrate the use of the methods introduced to perform a sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding.
相關內容
There has been significant interest in understanding how practical constraints on contemporary quantum devices impact the complexity of quantum learning. For the classic question of tomography, recent work tightly characterized the copy complexity for any protocol that can only measure one copy of the unknown state at a time, showing it is polynomially worse than if one can make fully-entangled measurements. While we now have a fairly complete picture of the rates for such tasks in the near-term and fault-tolerant regimes, it remains poorly understood what the landscape in between looks like. In this work, we study tomography in the natural setting where one can make measurements of $t$ copies at a time. For sufficiently small $\epsilon$, we show that for any $t \le d^2$, $\widetilde{\Theta}(\frac{d^3}{\sqrt{t}\epsilon^2})$ copies are necessary and sufficient to learn an unknown $d$-dimensional state $\rho$ to trace distance $\epsilon$. This gives a smooth and optimal interpolation between the known rates for single-copy and fully-entangled measurements. To our knowledge, this is the first smooth entanglement-copy tradeoff known for any quantum learning task, and for tomography, no intermediate point on this curve was known, even at $t = 2$. An important obstacle is that unlike the optimal single-copy protocol, the optimal fully-entangled protocol is inherently biased and thus precludes naive batching approaches. Instead, we devise a novel two-stage procedure that uses Keyl's algorithm to refine a crude estimate for $\rho$ based on single-copy measurements. A key insight is to use Schur-Weyl sampling not to estimate the spectrum of $\rho$, but to estimate the deviation of $\rho$ from the maximally mixed state. When $\rho$ is far from the maximally mixed state, we devise a novel quantum splitting procedure that reduces to the case where $\rho$ is close to maximally mixed.
In social choice theory with ordinal preferences, a voting method satisfies the axiom of positive involvement if adding to a preference profile a voter who ranks an alternative uniquely first cannot cause that alternative to go from winning to losing. In this note, we prove a new impossibility theorem concerning this axiom: there is no ordinal voting method satisfying positive involvement that also satisfies the Condorcet winner and loser criteria, resolvability, and a common invariance property for Condorcet methods, namely that the choice of winners depends only on the ordering of majority margins by size.
We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the outcome ($Y$) and the covariates ($X$). We propose to reweight the training samples to adjust for an identifiable covariate shift while protecting against worst-case conditional distribution shift bounded in an $f$-divergence ball. Based on ideas from conformal inference and distributionally robust learning, we present an algorithm that outputs (approximately) valid and efficient prediction intervals in the presence of distributional shifts. As a use case, we apply the framework to sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects with hidden confounding. The proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and three real data applications, demonstrating superior robustness and efficiency compared with existing benchmarks.
Interpolation of data on non-Euclidean spaces is an active research area fostered by its numerous applications. This work considers the Hermite interpolation problem: finding a sufficiently smooth manifold curve that interpolates a collection of data points on a Riemannian manifold while matching a prescribed derivative at each point. We propose a novel procedure relying on the general concept of retractions to solve this problem on a large class of manifolds, including those for which computing the Riemannian exponential or logarithmic maps is not straightforward, such as the manifold of fixed-rank matrices. We analyze the well-posedness of the method by introducing and showing the existence of retraction-convex sets, a generalization of geodesically convex sets. We extend to the manifold setting a classical result on the asymptotic interpolation error of Hermite interpolation. We finally illustrate these results and the effectiveness of the method with numerical experiments on the manifold of fixed-rank matrices and the Stiefel manifold of matrices with orthonormal columns.
This essay provides a comprehensive analysis of the optimization and performance evaluation of various routing algorithms within the context of computer networks. Routing algorithms are critical for determining the most efficient path for data transmission between nodes in a network. The efficiency, reliability, and scalability of a network heavily rely on the choice and optimization of its routing algorithm. This paper begins with an overview of fundamental routing strategies, including shortest path, flooding, distance vector, and link state algorithms, and extends to more sophisticated techniques.
The ability to extract material parameters of perovskite from quantitative experimental analysis is essential for rational design of photovoltaic and optoelectronic applications. However, the difficulty of this analysis increases significantly with the complexity of the theoretical model and the number of material parameters for perovskite. Here we use Gaussian process to develop an analysis platform that can extract up to 8 fundamental material parameters of an organometallic perovskite semiconductor from a transient photoluminescence experiment, based on a complex full physics model that includes drift-diffusion of carriers and dynamic defect occupation. An example study of thermal degradation reveals that changes in doping concentration and carrier mobility dominate, while the defect energy level remains nearly unchanged. This platform can be conveniently applied to other experiments or to combinations of experiments, accelerating materials discovery and optimization of semiconductor materials for photovoltaics and other applications.
Randomized matrix algorithms have become workhorse tools in scientific computing and machine learning. To use these algorithms safely in applications, they should be coupled with posterior error estimates to assess the quality of the output. To meet this need, this paper proposes two diagnostics: a leave-one-out error estimator for randomized low-rank approximations and a jackknife resampling method to estimate the variance of the output of a randomized matrix computation. Both of these diagnostics are rapid to compute for randomized low-rank approximation algorithms such as the randomized SVD and randomized Nystr\"om approximation, and they provide useful information that can be used to assess the quality of the computed output and guide algorithmic parameter choices.
Perturbation and operator adjoint method are used to give the right adjoint form rigourously. From the derivation, we can have following results: 1) The loss gradient is not an ODE, it is an integral and we shows the reason; 2) The traditional adjoint form is not equivalent with the back propagation results. 3) The adjoint operator analysis shows that if and only if the discrete adjoint has the same scheme with the discrete neural ODE, the adjoint form would give the same results as BP does.
Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to make causal inferences about the effects of modifiable risk factors on diseases from observational data. One of the major challenges in Mendelian randomization is that many genetic variants are only modestly or even weakly associated with the risk factor of interest, a setting known as many weak instruments. Many existing methods, such as the popular inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method, could be biased when the instrument strength is weak. To address this issue, the debiased IVW (dIVW) estimator, which is shown to be robust to many weak instruments, was recently proposed. However, this estimator still has non-ignorable bias when the effective sample size is small. In this paper, we propose a modified debiased IVW (mdIVW) estimator by multiplying a modification factor to the original dIVW estimator. After this simple correction, we show that the bias of the mdIVW estimator converges to zero at a faster rate than that of the dIVW estimator under some regularity conditions. Moreover, the mdIVW estimator has smaller variance than the dIVW estimator.We further extend the proposed method to account for the presence of instrumental variable selection and balanced horizontal pleiotropy. We demonstrate the improvement of the mdIVW estimator over the dIVW estimator through extensive simulation studies and real data analysis.
Estimands can help clarify the interpretation of treatment effects and ensure that estimators are aligned to the study's objectives. Cluster randomised trials require additional attributes to be defined within the estimand compared to individually randomised trials, including whether treatment effects are marginal or cluster specific, and whether they are participant or cluster average. In this paper, we provide formal definitions of estimands encompassing both these attributes using potential outcomes notation and describe differences between them. We then provide an overview of estimators for each estimand, describe their assumptions, and show consistency (i.e. asymptotically unbiased estimation) for a series of analyses based on cluster level summaries. Then, through a reanalysis of a published cluster randomised trial, we demonstrate that the choice of both estimand and estimator can affect interpretation. For instance, the estimated odds ratio ranged from 1.38 (p=0.17) to 1.83 (p=0.03) depending on the target estimand, and for some estimands, the choice of estimator affected the conclusions by leading to smaller treatment effect estimates. We conclude that careful specification of the estimand, along with an appropriate choice of estimator, are essential to ensuring that cluster randomised trials address the right question.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191