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Modeling the correlations among errors is closely associated with how accurately the model can quantify predictive uncertainty in probabilistic time series forecasting. Recent multivariate models have made significant progress in accounting for contemporaneous correlations among errors, while a common assumption on these errors is that they are temporally independent for the sake of statistical simplicity. However, real-world observations often deviate from this assumption, since errors usually exhibit substantial autocorrelation due to various factors such as the exclusion of temporally correlated covariates. In this work, we propose an efficient method, based on a low-rank-plus-diagonal parameterization of the covariance matrix, which can effectively characterize the autocorrelation of errors. The proposed method possesses several desirable properties: the complexity does not scale with the number of time series, the resulting covariance can be used for calibrating predictions, and it can seamlessly integrate with any model with Gaussian-distributed errors. We empirically demonstrate these properties using two distinct neural forecasting models-GPVar and Transformer. Our experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our method in enhancing predictive accuracy and the quality of uncertainty quantification on multiple real-world datasets.

Dataset distillation (DD) has emerged as a widely adopted technique for crafting a synthetic dataset that captures the essential information of a training dataset, facilitating the training of accurate neural models. Its applications span various domains, including transfer learning, federated learning, and neural architecture search. The most popular methods for constructing the synthetic data rely on matching the convergence properties of training the model with the synthetic dataset and the training dataset. However, targeting the training dataset must be thought of as auxiliary in the same sense that the training set is an approximate substitute for the population distribution, and the latter is the data of interest. Yet despite its popularity, an aspect that remains unexplored is the relationship of DD to its generalization, particularly across uncommon subgroups. That is, how can we ensure that a model trained on the synthetic dataset performs well when faced with samples from regions with low population density? Here, the representativeness and coverage of the dataset become salient over the guaranteed training error at inference. Drawing inspiration from distributionally robust optimization, we introduce an algorithm that combines clustering with the minimization of a risk measure on the loss to conduct DD. We provide a theoretical rationale for our approach and demonstrate its effective generalization and robustness across subgroups through numerical experiments.

As IoT networks become more complex and generate massive amounts of dynamic data, it is difficult to monitor and detect anomalies using traditional statistical methods and machine learning methods. Deep learning algorithms can process and learn from large amounts of data and can also be trained using unsupervised learning techniques, meaning they don't require labelled data to detect anomalies. This makes it possible to detect new and unknown anomalies that may not have been detected before. Also, deep learning algorithms can be automated and highly scalable; thereby, they can run continuously in the backend and make it achievable to monitor large IoT networks instantly. In this work, we conduct a literature review on the most recent works using deep learning techniques and implement a model using ensemble techniques on the KDD Cup 99 dataset. The experimental results showcase the impressive performance of our deep anomaly detection model, achieving an accuracy of over 98\%.

Deep probabilistic time series forecasting has gained attention for its superior performance in nonlinear approximation and its capability to offer valuable uncertainty quantification for decision-making. However, existing models often oversimplify the problem by assuming a time-independent error process, overlooking serial correlation. To overcome this limitation, we propose an innovative training method that incorporates error autocorrelation to enhance probabilistic forecasting accuracy. Our method constructs a mini-batch as a collection of $D$ consecutive time series segments for model training. It explicitly learns a time-varying covariance matrix over each mini-batch, encoding error correlation among adjacent time steps. The learned covariance matrix can be used to improve prediction accuracy and enhance uncertainty quantification. We evaluate our method on two different neural forecasting models and multiple public datasets. Experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach in improving the performance of both models across a range of datasets, resulting in notable improvements in predictive accuracy.

We introduce a new mean-field ODE and corresponding interacting particle systems (IPS) for sampling from an unnormalized target density. The IPS are gradient-free, available in closed form, and only require the ability to sample from a reference density and compute the (unnormalized) target-to-reference density ratio. The mean-field ODE is obtained by solving a Poisson equation for a velocity field that transports samples along the geometric mixture of the two densities, which is the path of a particular Fisher-Rao gradient flow. We employ a RKHS ansatz for the velocity field, which makes the Poisson equation tractable and enables discretization of the resulting mean-field ODE over finite samples. The mean-field ODE can be additionally be derived from a discrete-time perspective as the limit of successive linearizations of the Monge-Amp\`ere equations within a framework known as sample-driven optimal transport. We introduce a stochastic variant of our approach and demonstrate empirically that our IPS can produce high-quality samples from varied target distributions, outperforming comparable gradient-free particle systems and competitive with gradient-based alternatives.

Extremely large aperture arrays can enable unprecedented spatial multiplexing in beyond 5G systems due to their extremely narrow beamfocusing capabilities. However, acquiring the spatial correlation matrix to enable efficient channel estimation is a complex task due to the vast number of antenna dimensions. Recently, a new estimation method called the "reduced-subspace least squares (RS-LS) estimator" has been proposed for densely packed arrays. This method relies solely on the geometry of the array to limit the estimation resources. In this paper, we address a gap in the existing literature by deriving the average spectral efficiency for a certain distribution of user equipments (UEs) and a lower bound on it when using the RS-LS estimator. This bound is determined by the channel gain and the statistics of the normalized spatial correlation matrices of potential UEs but, importantly, does not require knowledge of a specific UE's spatial correlation matrix. We establish that there exists a pilot length that maximizes this expression. Additionally, we derive an approximate expression for the optimal pilot length under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions. Simulation results validate the tightness of the derived lower bound and the effectiveness of using the optimized pilot length.

In the Big Data era, with the ubiquity of geolocation sensors in particular, massive datasets exhibiting a possibly complex spatial dependence structure are becoming increasingly available. In this context, the standard probabilistic theory of statistical learning does not apply directly and guarantees of the generalization capacity of predictive rules learned from such data are left to establish. We analyze here the simple Kriging task from a statistical learning perspective, i.e. by carrying out a nonparametric finite-sample predictive analysis. Given $d\geq 1$ values taken by a realization of a square integrable random field $X=\{X_s\}_{s\in S}$, $S\subset \mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown covariance structure, at sites $s_1,\; \ldots,\; s_d$ in $S$, the goal is to predict the unknown values it takes at any other location $s\in S$ with minimum quadratic risk. The prediction rule being derived from a training spatial dataset: a single realization $X'$ of $X$, independent from those to be predicted, observed at $n\geq 1$ locations $\sigma_1,\; \ldots,\; \sigma_n$ in $S$. Despite the connection of this minimization problem with kernel ridge regression, establishing the generalization capacity of empirical risk minimizers is far from straightforward, due to the non independent and identically distributed nature of the training data $X'_{\sigma_1},\; \ldots,\; X'_{\sigma_n}$ involved in the learning procedure. In this article, non-asymptotic bounds of order $O_{\mathbb{P}}(1/\sqrt{n})$ are proved for the excess risk of a plug-in predictive rule mimicking the true minimizer in the case of isotropic stationary Gaussian processes, observed at locations forming a regular grid in the learning stage. These theoretical results are illustrated by various numerical experiments, on simulated data and on real-world datasets.

Knowledge graphs (KGs), which could provide essential relational information between entities, have been widely utilized in various knowledge-driven applications. Since the overall human knowledge is innumerable that still grows explosively and changes frequently, knowledge construction and update inevitably involve automatic mechanisms with less human supervision, which usually bring in plenty of noises and conflicts to KGs. However, most conventional knowledge representation learning methods assume that all triple facts in existing KGs share the same significance without any noises. To address this problem, we propose a novel confidence-aware knowledge representation learning framework (CKRL), which detects possible noises in KGs while learning knowledge representations with confidence simultaneously. Specifically, we introduce the triple confidence to conventional translation-based methods for knowledge representation learning. To make triple confidence more flexible and universal, we only utilize the internal structural information in KGs, and propose three kinds of triple confidences considering both local and global structural information. In experiments, We evaluate our models on knowledge graph noise detection, knowledge graph completion and triple classification. Experimental results demonstrate that our confidence-aware models achieve significant and consistent improvements on all tasks, which confirms the capability of CKRL modeling confidence with structural information in both KG noise detection and knowledge representation learning.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.