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Partial synchrony is a model of computation in many distributed algorithms and modern blockchains. These algorithms are typically parameterized in the number of participants, and their correctness requires the existence of bounds on message delays and on the relative speed of processes after reaching Global Stabilization Time. These characteristics make partially synchronous algorithms parameterized in the number of processes, and parametric in time bounds, which render automated verification of partially synchronous algorithms challenging. In this paper, we present a case study on formal verification of both safety and liveness of the Chandra and Toueg failure detector that is based on partial synchrony. To this end, we first introduce and formalize the class of symmetric point-to-point algorithms that contains the failure detector. Second, we show that these symmetric point-to-point algorithms have a cutoff, and the cutoff results hold in three models of computation: synchrony, asynchrony, and partial synchrony. As a result, one can verify them by model checking small instances, but the verification problem stays parametric in time. Next, we specify the failure detector and the partial synchrony assumptions in three frameworks: TLA+, IVy, and counter automata. Importantly, we tune our modeling to use the strength of each method: (1) We are using counters to encode message buffers with counter automata, (2) we are using first-order relations to encode message buffers in IVy, and (3) we are using both approaches in TLA+. By running the tools for TLA+ and counter automata, we demonstrate safety for fixed time bounds. By running IVy, we prove safety for arbitrary time bounds. Moreover, we show how to verify liveness of the failure detector by reducing the verification problem to safety verification. Thus, both properties are verified by developing inductive invariants with IVy.

We overview Bayesian estimation, hypothesis testing, and model-averaging and illustrate how they benefit parametric survival analysis. We contrast the Bayesian framework to the currently dominant frequentist approach and highlight advantages, such as seamless incorporation of historical data, continuous monitoring of evidence, and incorporating uncertainty about the true data generating process. We illustrate the application of the Bayesian approaches on an example data set from a colon cancer trial. We compare the Bayesian parametric survival analysis and frequentist models with AIC/BIC model selection in fixed-n and sequential designs with a simulation study. In the example data set, the Bayesian framework provided evidence for the absence of a positive treatment effect on disease-free survival in patients with resected colon cancer. Furthermore, the Bayesian sequential analysis would have terminated the trial 13.3 months earlier than the standard frequentist analysis. In a simulation study with sequential designs, the Bayesian framework on average reached a decision in almost half the time required by the frequentist counterparts, while maintaining the same power, and an appropriate false-positive rate. Under model misspecification, the Bayesian framework resulted in higher false-negative rate compared to the frequentist counterparts, which resulted in a higher proportion of undecided trials. In fixed-n designs, the Bayesian framework showed slightly higher power, slightly elevated error rates, and lower bias and RMSE when estimating treatment effects in small samples. We have made the analytic approach readily available in RoBSA R package. The outlined Bayesian framework provides several benefits when applied to parametric survival analyses. It uses data more efficiently, is capable of greatly shortening the length of clinical trials, and provides a richer set of inferences.

A new mixture vector autoressive model based on Gaussian and Student's $t$ distributions is introduced. The G-StMVAR model incorporates conditionally homoskedastic linear Gaussian vector autoregressions and conditionally heteroskedastic linear Student's $t$ vector autoregressions as its mixture components, and mixing weights that, for a $p$th order model, depend on the full distribution of the preceding $p$ observations. Also a structural version of the model with time-varying B-matrix and statistically identified shocks is proposed. We derive the stationary distribution of $p+1$ consecutive observations and show that the process is ergodic. It is also shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is strongly consistent, and thereby has the conventional limiting distribution under conventional high-level conditions. Finally, this paper is accompanied with the CRAN distributed R package gmvarkit that provides easy-to-use tools for estimating the models and applying the methods.

We argue for the use of separate exchangeability as a modeling principle in Bayesian inference, especially for nonparametric Bayesian models. While in some areas, such as random graphs, separate and (closely related) joint exchangeability are widely used, and it naturally arises for example in simple mixed models, it is curiously underused for other applications. We briefly review the definition of separate exchangeability. We then discuss two specific models that implement separate exchangeability. One example is about nested random partitions for a data matrix, defining a partition of columns and nested partitions of rows, nested within column clusters. Many recently proposed models for nested partitions implement partially exchangeable models. We argue that inference under such models in some cases ignores important features of the experimental setup. The second example is about setting up separately exchangeable priors for a nonparametric regression model when multiple sets of experimental units are involved.

Many analyses of multivariate data are focused on evaluating the dependence between two sets of variables, rather than the dependence among individual variables within each set. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a classical data analysis technique that estimates parameters describing the dependence between such sets. However, inference procedures based on traditional CCA rely on the assumption that all variables are jointly normally distributed. We present a semiparametric approach to CCA in which the multivariate margins of each variable set may be arbitrary, but the dependence between variable sets is described by a parametric model that provides a low-dimensional summary of dependence. While maximum likelihood estimation in the proposed model is intractable, we develop a novel MCMC algorithm called cyclically monotone Monte Carlo (CMMC) that provides estimates and confidence regions for the between-set dependence parameters. This algorithm is based on a multirank likelihood function, which uses only part of the information in the observed data in exchange for being free of assumptions about the multivariate margins. We illustrate the proposed inference procedure on nutrient data from the USDA.

Quasi-experimental research designs, such as regression discontinuity and interrupted time series, allow for causal inference in the absence of a randomized controlled trial, at the cost of additional assumptions. In this paper, we provide a framework for discontinuity-based designs using Bayesian model comparison and Gaussian process regression, which we refer to as 'Bayesian nonparametric discontinuity design', or BNDD for short. BNDD addresses the two major shortcomings in most implementations of such designs: overconfidence due to implicit conditioning on the alleged effect, and model misspecification due to reliance on overly simplistic regression models. With the appropriate Gaussian process covariance function, our approach can detect discontinuities of any order, and in spectral features. We demonstrate the usage of BNDD in simulations, and apply the framework to determine the effect of running for political positions on longevity, of the effect of an alleged historical phantom border in the Netherlands on Dutch voting behaviour, and of Kundalini Yoga meditation on heart rate.

This paper introduces a simple and tractable sieve estimation of semiparametric conditional factor models with latent factors. We establish large-$N$-asymptotic properties of the estimators and the tests without requiring large $T$. We also develop a simple bootstrap procedure for conducting inference about the conditional pricing errors as well as the shapes of the factor loadings functions. These results enable us to estimate conditional factor structure of a large set of individual assets by utilizing arbitrary nonlinear functions of a number of characteristics without the need to pre-specify the factors, while allowing us to disentangle the characteristics' role in capturing factor betas from alphas (i.e., undiversifiable risk from mispricing). We apply these methods to the cross-section of individual U.S. stock returns and find strong evidence of large nonzero pricing errors that combine to produce arbitrage portfolios with Sharpe ratios above 3.

This work focuses on combining nonparametric topic models with Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB). Specifically, we first propose iTM-VAE, where the topics are treated as trainable parameters and the document-specific topic proportions are obtained by a stick-breaking construction. The inference of iTM-VAE is modeled by neural networks such that it can be computed in a simple feed-forward manner. We also describe how to introduce a hyper-prior into iTM-VAE so as to model the uncertainty of the prior parameter. Actually, the hyper-prior technique is quite general and we show that it can be applied to other AEVB based models to alleviate the {\it collapse-to-prior} problem elegantly. Moreover, we also propose HiTM-VAE, where the document-specific topic distributions are generated in a hierarchical manner. HiTM-VAE is even more flexible and can generate topic distributions with better variability. Experimental results on 20News and Reuters RCV1-V2 datasets show that the proposed models outperform the state-of-the-art baselines significantly. The advantages of the hyper-prior technique and the hierarchical model construction are also confirmed by experiments.

Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.