For many applications of agent-based models (ABMs), an agent's age influences important decisions (e.g. their contribution to/withdrawal from pension funds, their level of risk aversion in decision-making, etc.) and outcomes in their life cycle (e.g. their susceptibility to disease). These considerations make it crucial to accurately capture the age distribution of the population being considered. Often, empirical survival probabilities cannot be used in ABMs to generate the observed age structure due to discrepancies between samples or models (between the ABM and the survival statistical model used to produce empirical rates). In these cases, imputing empirical survival probabilities will not generate the observed age structure of the population, and assumptions such as exogenous agent inflows are necessary (but not necessarily empirically valid). In this paper, we propose a method that allows for the preservation of agent age-structure without the exogenous influx of agents, even when only a subset of the population is being modelled. We demonstrate the flexibility and accuracy of our methodology by performing simulations of several real-world age distributions. This method is a useful tool for those developing ABMs across a broad range of applications.
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The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has substantially influenced natural language processing, demonstrating exceptional results across various tasks. In this study, we employ ``Introspective Tips" to facilitate LLMs in self-optimizing their decision-making. By introspectively examining trajectories, LLM refines its policy by generating succinct and valuable tips. Our method enhances the agent's performance in both few-shot and zero-shot learning situations by considering three essential scenarios: learning from the agent's past experiences, integrating expert demonstrations, and generalizing across diverse games. Importantly, we accomplish these improvements without fine-tuning the LLM parameters; rather, we adjust the prompt to generalize insights from the three aforementioned situations. Our framework not only supports but also emphasizes the advantage of employing LLM in in-contxt decision-making. Experiments involving over 100 games in TextWorld illustrate the superior performance of our approach.
The paper introduces DiSProD, an online planner developed for environments with probabilistic transitions in continuous state and action spaces. DiSProD builds a symbolic graph that captures the distribution of future trajectories, conditioned on a given policy, using independence assumptions and approximate propagation of distributions. The symbolic graph provides a differentiable representation of the policy's value, enabling efficient gradient-based optimization for long-horizon search. The propagation of approximate distributions can be seen as an aggregation of many trajectories, making it well-suited for dealing with sparse rewards and stochastic environments. An extensive experimental evaluation compares DiSProD to state-of-the-art planners in discrete-time planning and real-time control of robotic systems. The proposed method improves over existing planners in handling stochastic environments, sensitivity to search depth, sparsity of rewards, and large action spaces. Additional real-world experiments demonstrate that DiSProD can control ground vehicles and surface vessels to successfully navigate around obstacles.
Large language models (LLMs) have notably accelerated progress towards artificial general intelligence (AGI), with their impressive zero-shot capacity for user-tailored tasks, endowing them with immense potential across a range of applications. However, in the field of computer vision, despite the availability of numerous powerful vision foundation models (VFMs), they are still restricted to tasks in a pre-defined form, struggling to match the open-ended task capabilities of LLMs. In this work, we present an LLM-based framework for vision-centric tasks, termed VisionLLM. This framework provides a unified perspective for vision and language tasks by treating images as a foreign language and aligning vision-centric tasks with language tasks that can be flexibly defined and managed using language instructions. An LLM-based decoder can then make appropriate predictions based on these instructions for open-ended tasks. Extensive experiments show that the proposed VisionLLM can achieve different levels of task customization through language instructions, from fine-grained object-level to coarse-grained task-level customization, all with good results. It's noteworthy that, with a generalist LLM-based framework, our model can achieve over 60\% mAP on COCO, on par with detection-specific models. We hope this model can set a new baseline for generalist vision and language models. The demo shall be released based on //github.com/OpenGVLab/InternGPT. The code shall be released at //github.com/OpenGVLab/VisionLLM.
A number of deep models trained on high-quality and valuable images have been deployed in practical applications, which may pose a leakage risk of data privacy. Learning differentially private generative models can sidestep this challenge through indirect data access. However, such differentially private generative models learned by existing approaches can only generate images with a low-resolution of less than 128x128, hindering the widespread usage of generated images in downstream training. In this work, we propose learning differentially private probabilistic models (DPPM) to generate high-resolution images with differential privacy guarantee. In particular, we first train a model to fit the distribution of the training data and make it satisfy differential privacy by performing a randomized response mechanism during training process. Then we perform Hamiltonian dynamics sampling along with the differentially private movement direction predicted by the trained probabilistic model to obtain the privacy-preserving images. In this way, it is possible to apply these images to different downstream tasks while protecting private information. Notably, compared to other state-of-the-art differentially private generative approaches, our approach can generate images up to 256x256 with remarkable visual quality and data utility. Extensive experiments show the effectiveness of our approach.
Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured confounding makes identification impossible. Specifically, we cast causal effects as objective functions within a constrained optimization problem, and minimize/maximize these functions to obtain bounds. We combine flexible learning algorithms with Monte Carlo methods to implement a family of solutions under the name of stochastic causal programming. In particular, we show how the generic framework can be efficiently formulated in settings where auxiliary variables are clustered into pre-treatment and post-treatment sets, where no fine-grained causal graph can be easily specified. In these settings, we can avoid the need for fully specifying the distribution family of hidden common causes. Monte Carlo computation is also much simplified, leading to algorithms which are more computationally stable against alternatives.
Link prediction problem has increasingly become prominent in many domains such as social network analyses, bioinformatics experiments, transportation networks, criminal investigations and so forth. A variety of techniques has been developed for link prediction problem, categorized into 1) similarity based approaches which study a set of features to extract similar nodes; 2) learning based approaches which extract patterns from the input data; 3) probabilistic statistical approaches which optimize a set of parameters to establish a model which can best compute formation probability. However, existing literatures lack approaches which utilize strength of each approach by integrating them to achieve a much more productive one. To tackle the link prediction problem, we propose an approach based on the combination of first and second group methods; the existing studied works use just one of these categories. Our two-phase developed method firstly determines new features related to the position and dynamic behavior of nodes, which enforce the approach more efficiency compared to approaches using mere measures. Then, a subspace clustering algorithm is applied to group social objects based on the computed similarity measures which differentiate the strength of clusters; basically, the usage of local and global indices and the clustering information plays an imperative role in our link prediction process. Some extensive experiments held on real datasets including Facebook, Brightkite and HepTh indicate good performances of our proposal method. Besides, we have experimentally verified our approach with some previous techniques in the area to prove the supremacy of ours.
Understanding the laws that govern a phenomenon is the core of scientific progress. This is especially true when the goal is to model the interplay between different aspects in a causal fashion. Indeed, causal inference itself is specifically designed to quantify the underlying relationships that connect a cause to its effect. Causal discovery is a branch of the broader field of causality in which causal graphs is recovered from data (whenever possible), enabling the identification and estimation of causal effects. In this paper, we explore recent advancements in a unified manner, provide a consistent overview of existing algorithms developed under different settings, report useful tools and data, present real-world applications to understand why and how these methods can be fruitfully exploited.
Advances in artificial intelligence often stem from the development of new environments that abstract real-world situations into a form where research can be done conveniently. This paper contributes such an environment based on ideas inspired by elementary Microeconomics. Agents learn to produce resources in a spatially complex world, trade them with one another, and consume those that they prefer. We show that the emergent production, consumption, and pricing behaviors respond to environmental conditions in the directions predicted by supply and demand shifts in Microeconomics. We also demonstrate settings where the agents' emergent prices for goods vary over space, reflecting the local abundance of goods. After the price disparities emerge, some agents then discover a niche of transporting goods between regions with different prevailing prices -- a profitable strategy because they can buy goods where they are cheap and sell them where they are expensive. Finally, in a series of ablation experiments, we investigate how choices in the environmental rewards, bartering actions, agent architecture, and ability to consume tradable goods can either aid or inhibit the emergence of this economic behavior. This work is part of the environment development branch of a research program that aims to build human-like artificial general intelligence through multi-agent interactions in simulated societies. By exploring which environment features are needed for the basic phenomena of elementary microeconomics to emerge automatically from learning, we arrive at an environment that differs from those studied in prior multi-agent reinforcement learning work along several dimensions. For example, the model incorporates heterogeneous tastes and physical abilities, and agents negotiate with one another as a grounded form of communication.
Along with the massive growth of the Internet from the 1990s until now, various innovative technologies have been created to bring users breathtaking experiences with more virtual interactions in cyberspace. Many virtual environments with thousands of services and applications, from social networks to virtual gaming worlds, have been developed with immersive experience and digital transformation, but most are incoherent instead of being integrated into a platform. In this context, metaverse, a term formed by combining meta and universe, has been introduced as a shared virtual world that is fueled by many emerging technologies, such as fifth-generation networks and beyond, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence (AI). Among such technologies, AI has shown the great importance of processing big data to enhance immersive experience and enable human-like intelligence of virtual agents. In this survey, we make a beneficial effort to explore the role of AI in the foundation and development of the metaverse. We first deliver a preliminary of AI, including machine learning algorithms and deep learning architectures, and its role in the metaverse. We then convey a comprehensive investigation of AI-based methods concerning six technical aspects that have potentials for the metaverse: natural language processing, machine vision, blockchain, networking, digital twin, and neural interface, and being potential for the metaverse. Subsequently, several AI-aided applications, such as healthcare, manufacturing, smart cities, and gaming, are studied to be deployed in the virtual worlds. Finally, we conclude the key contribution of this survey and open some future research directions in AI for the metaverse.
Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.
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