We propose a framework for predictive uncertainty quantification of a neural network that replaces the conventional Bayesian notion of weight probability density function (PDF) with a physics based potential field representation of the model weights in a Gaussian reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding. This allows us to use perturbation theory from quantum physics to formulate a moment decomposition problem over the model weight-output relationship. The extracted moments reveal successive degrees of regularization of the weight PDF around the local neighborhood of the model output. Such localized moments determine with great sensitivity the local heterogeneity of the weight PDF around a model prediction thereby providing significantly greater accuracy of model predictive uncertainty than the central moments characterized by Bayesian and ensemble methods. We show that this consequently leads to a better ability to detect false model predictions of test data that has undergone a covariate shift away from the training PDF learned by the model. We evaluate our approach against baseline uncertainty quantification methods on several benchmark datasets that are corrupted using common distortion techniques. Our approach provides fast model predictive uncertainty estimates with much greater precision and calibration.
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In this work we use variational inference to quantify the degree of uncertainty in deep learning model predictions of radio galaxy classification. We show that the level of model posterior variance for individual test samples is correlated with human uncertainty when labelling radio galaxies. We explore the model performance and uncertainty calibration for different weight priors and suggest that a sparse prior produces more well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Using the posterior distributions for individual weights, we demonstrate that we can prune 30% of the fully-connected layer weights without significant loss of performance by removing the weights with the lowest signal-to-noise ratio. A larger degree of pruning can be achieved using a Fisher information based ranking, but both pruning methods affect the uncertainty calibration for Fanaroff-Riley type I and type II radio galaxies differently. Like other work in this field, we experience a cold posterior effect, whereby the posterior must be down-weighted to achieve good predictive performance. We examine whether adapting the cost function to accommodate model misspecification can compensate for this effect, but find that it does not make a significant difference. We also examine the effect of principled data augmentation and find that this improves upon the baseline but also does not compensate for the observed effect. We interpret this as the cold posterior effect being due to the overly effective curation of our training sample leading to likelihood misspecification, and raise this as a potential issue for Bayesian deep learning approaches to radio galaxy classification in future.
Deep neural networks achieve high prediction accuracy when the train and test distributions coincide. In practice though, various types of corruptions occur which deviate from this setup and cause severe performance degradations. Few methods have been proposed to address generalization in the presence of unforeseen domain shifts. In particular, digital noise corruptions arise commonly in practice during the image acquisition stage and present a significant challenge for current robustness approaches. In this paper, we propose a diverse Gaussian noise consistency regularization method for improving robustness of image classifiers under a variety of noise corruptions while still maintaining high clean accuracy. We derive bounds to motivate our Gaussian noise consistency regularization using a local loss landscape analysis. We show that this simple approach improves robustness against various unforeseen noise corruptions over standard and adversarial training and other strong baselines. Furthermore, when combined with diverse data augmentation techniques we empirically show this type of consistency regularization further improves robustness and uncertainty calibration for common corruptions upon the state-of-the-art for several image classification benchmarks.
Adversarial risk quantifies the performance of classifiers on adversarially perturbed data. Numerous definitions of adversarial risk -- not all mathematically rigorous and differing subtly in the details -- have appeared in the literature. In this paper, we revisit these definitions, make them rigorous, and critically examine their similarities and differences. Our technical tools derive from optimal transport, robust statistics, functional analysis, and game theory. Our contributions include the following: generalizing Strassen's theorem to the unbalanced optimal transport setting with applications to adversarial classification with unequal priors; showing an equivalence between adversarial robustness and robust hypothesis testing with $\infty$-Wasserstein uncertainty sets; proving the existence of a pure Nash equilibrium in the two-player game between the adversary and the algorithm; and characterizing adversarial risk by the minimum Bayes error between a pair of distributions belonging to the $\infty$-Wasserstein uncertainty sets. Our results generalize and deepen recently discovered connections between optimal transport and adversarial robustness and reveal new connections to Choquet capacities and game theory.
3D reconstruction of depth and motion from monocular video in dynamic environments is a highly ill-posed problem due to scale ambiguities when projecting to the 2D image domain. In this work, we investigate the performance of the current State-of-the-Art (SotA) deep multi-view systems in such environments. We find that current supervised methods work surprisingly well despite not modelling individual object motions, but make systematic errors due to a lack of dense ground truth data. To detect such errors during usage, we extend the cost volume based Deep Video to Depth (DeepV2D) framework \cite{teed2018deepv2d} with a learned uncertainty. Our Deep Video to certain Depth (DeepV2cD) model allows i) to perform en par or better with current SotA and ii) achieve a better uncertainty measure than the naive Shannon entropy. Our experiments show that a simple filter strategy based on the uncertainty can significantly reduce systematic errors. This results in cleaner reconstructions both on static and dynamic parts of the scene.
Recently, deep learning has achieved remarkable successes in medical image analysis. Although deep neural networks generate clinically important predictions, they have inherent uncertainty. Such uncertainty is a major barrier to report these predictions with confidence. In this paper, we propose a novel yet simple Bayesian inference approach called SoftDropConnect (SDC) to quantify the network uncertainty in medical imaging tasks with gliomas segmentation and metastases classification as initial examples. Our key idea is that during training and testing SDC modulates network parameters continuously so as to allow affected information processing channels still in operation, instead of disabling them as Dropout or DropConnet does. When compared with three popular Bayesian inference methods including Bayes By Backprop, Dropout, and DropConnect, our SDC method (SDC-W after optimization) outperforms the three competing methods with a substantial margin. Quantitatively, our proposed method generates results withsubstantially improved prediction accuracy (by 10.0%, 5.4% and 3.7% respectively for segmentation in terms of dice score; by 11.7%, 3.9%, 8.7% on classification in terms of test accuracy) and greatly reduced uncertainty in terms of mutual information (by 64%, 33% and 70% on segmentation; 98%, 88%, and 88% on classification). Our approach promises to deliver better diagnostic performance and make medical AI imaging more explainable and trustworthy.
Deep neural networks have significantly contributed to the success in predictive accuracy for classification tasks. However, they tend to make over-confident predictions in real-world settings, where domain shifting and out-of-distribution (OOD) examples exist. Most research on uncertainty estimation focuses on computer vision because it provides visual validation on uncertainty quality. However, few have been presented in the natural language process domain. Unlike Bayesian methods that indirectly infer uncertainty through weight uncertainties, current evidential uncertainty-based methods explicitly model the uncertainty of class probabilities through subjective opinions. They further consider inherent uncertainty in data with different root causes, vacuity (i.e., uncertainty due to a lack of evidence) and dissonance (i.e., uncertainty due to conflicting evidence). In our paper, we firstly apply evidential uncertainty in OOD detection for text classification tasks. We propose an inexpensive framework that adopts both auxiliary outliers and pseudo off-manifold samples to train the model with prior knowledge of a certain class, which has high vacuity for OOD samples. Extensive empirical experiments demonstrate that our model based on evidential uncertainty outperforms other counterparts for detecting OOD examples. Our approach can be easily deployed to traditional recurrent neural networks and fine-tuned pre-trained transformers.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
One of the central problems in machine learning is domain adaptation. Unlike past theoretical work, we consider a new model for subpopulation shift in the input or representation space. In this work, we propose a provably effective framework for domain adaptation based on label propagation. In our analysis, we use a simple but realistic ``expansion'' assumption, proposed in \citet{wei2021theoretical}. Using a teacher classifier trained on the source domain, our algorithm not only propagates to the target domain but also improves upon the teacher. By leveraging existing generalization bounds, we also obtain end-to-end finite-sample guarantees on the entire algorithm. In addition, we extend our theoretical framework to a more general setting of source-to-target transfer based on a third unlabeled dataset, which can be easily applied in various learning scenarios.
While supervised learning has enabled great progress in many applications, unsupervised learning has not seen such widespread adoption, and remains an important and challenging endeavor for artificial intelligence. In this work, we propose a universal unsupervised learning approach to extract useful representations from high-dimensional data, which we call Contrastive Predictive Coding. The key insight of our model is to learn such representations by predicting the future in latent space by using powerful autoregressive models. We use a probabilistic contrastive loss which induces the latent space to capture information that is maximally useful to predict future samples. It also makes the model tractable by using negative sampling. While most prior work has focused on evaluating representations for a particular modality, we demonstrate that our approach is able to learn useful representations achieving strong performance on four distinct domains: speech, images, text and reinforcement learning in 3D environments.
Machine translation is a popular test bed for research in neural sequence-to-sequence models but despite much recent research, there is still a lack of understanding of these models. Practitioners report performance degradation with large beams, the under-estimation of rare words and a lack of diversity in the final translations. Our study relates some of these issues to the inherent uncertainty of the task, due to the existence of multiple valid translations for a single source sentence, and to the extrinsic uncertainty caused by noisy training data. We propose tools and metrics to assess how uncertainty in the data is captured by the model distribution and how it affects search strategies that generate translations. Our results show that search works remarkably well but that the models tend to spread too much probability mass over the hypothesis space. Next, we propose tools to assess model calibration and show how to easily fix some shortcomings of current models. We release both code and multiple human reference translations for two popular benchmarks.
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