We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the weights determined by its coverage probability. We provide a concise mathematical proof of the method, show how it can be extended to derive PIs for parametrised functions and argue why the method works for predicting PIs of dependent variables. The presented tests of the method on a real-world forecasting task using a neural network-based model show that it can produce reliable PIs in complex machine learning scenarios.
相關內容
損失函數，在AI中亦稱呼距離函數，度量函數。此處的距離代表的是抽象性的，代表真實數據與預測數據之間的誤差。損失函數（loss function）是用來估量你模型的預測值f(x)與真實值Y的不一致程度，它是一個非負實值函數,通常使用L(Y, f(x))來表示，損失函數越小，模型的魯棒性就越好。損失函數是經驗風險函數的核心部分，也是結構風險函數重要組成部分。
We provide a new sequent calculus that enjoys syntactic cut-elimination and strongly terminating backward proof search for the intuitionistic Strong L\"ob logic $\sf{iSL}$, an intuitionistic modal logic with a provability interpretation. A novel measure on sequents is used to prove both the termination of the naive backward proof search strategy, and the admissibility of cut in a syntactic and direct way, leading to a straightforward cut-elimination procedure. All proofs have been formalised in the interactive theorem prover Coq.
In Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) it is assumed that there is a linear effect of the predictor variables on the outcome. However, this assumption is often too strict, because in many applications predictors have a nonlinear relation with the outcome. Optimal Scaling (OS) transformations combined with GLMs can deal with this type of relations. Transformations of the predictors have been integrated in GLMs before, e.g. in Generalized Additive Models. However, the OS methodology has several benefits. For example, the levels of categorical predictors are quantified directly, such that they can be included in the model without defining dummy variables. This approach enhances the interpretation and visualization of the effect of different levels on the outcome. Furthermore, monotonicity restrictions can be applied to the OS transformations such that the original ordering of the category values is preserved. This improves the interpretation of the effect and may prevent overfitting. The scaling level can be chosen for each individual predictor such that models can include mixed scaling levels. In this way, a suitable transformation can be found for each predictor in the model. The implementation of OS in logistic regression is demonstrated using three datasets that contain a binary outcome variable and a set of categorical and/or continuous predictor variables.
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the temporal dependence structure of Hawkes processes is generally a computationally expensive task, all the more with Bayesian estimation methods. In particular, for generalised nonlinear Hawkes processes, Monte-Carlo Markov Chain methods applied to compute the doubly intractable posterior distribution are not scalable to high-dimensional processes in practice. Recently, efficient algorithms targeting a mean-field variational approximation of the posterior distribution have been proposed. In this work, we first unify existing variational Bayes approaches under a general nonparametric inference framework, and analyse the asymptotic properties of these methods under easily verifiable conditions on the prior, the variational class, and the nonlinear model. Secondly, we propose a novel sparsity-inducing procedure, and derive an adaptive mean-field variational algorithm for the popular sigmoid Hawkes processes. Our algorithm is parallelisable and therefore computationally efficient in high-dimensional setting. Through an extensive set of numerical simulations, we also demonstrate that our procedure is able to adapt to the dimensionality of the parameter of the Hawkes process, and is partially robust to some type of model mis-specification.
To create effective data visualizations, it helps to represent data using visual features in intuitive ways. When visualization designs match observer expectations, visualizations are easier to interpret. Prior work suggests that several factors influence such expectations. For example, the dark-is-more bias leads observers to infer that darker colors map to larger quantities, and the opaque-is-more bias leads them to infer that regions appearing more opaque (given the background color) map to larger quantities. Previous work suggested that the background color only plays a role if visualizations appear to vary in opacity. The present study challenges this claim. We hypothesized that the background color modulate inferred mappings for colormaps that should not appear to vary in opacity (by previous measures) if the visualization appeared to have a "hole" that revealed the background behind the map (hole hypothesis). We found that spatial aspects of the map contributed to inferred mappings, though the effects were inconsistent with the hole hypothesis. Our work raises new questions about how spatial distributions of data influence color semantics in colormap data visualizations.
We present a multigrid algorithm to solve efficiently the large saddle-point systems of equations that typically arise in PDE-constrained optimization under uncertainty. The algorithm is based on a collective smoother that at each iteration sweeps over the nodes of the computational mesh, and solves a reduced saddle-point system whose size depends on the number $N$ of samples used to discretized the probability space. We show that this reduced system can be solved with optimal $O(N)$ complexity. We test the multigrid method on three problems: a linear-quadratic problem for which the multigrid method is used to solve directly the linear optimality system; a nonsmooth problem with box constraints and $L^1$-norm penalization on the control, in which the multigrid scheme is used within a semismooth Newton iteration; a risk-adverse problem with the smoothed CVaR risk measure where the multigrid method is called within a preconditioned Newton iteration. In all cases, the multigrid algorithm exhibits very good performances and robustness with respect to all parameters of interest.
Community detection is an important content in complex network analysis. The existing community detection methods in attributed networks mostly focus on only using network structure, while the methods of integrating node attributes is mainly for the traditional community structures, and cannot detect multipartite structures and mixture structures in network. In addition, the model-based community detection methods currently proposed for attributed networks do not fully consider unique topology information of nodes, such as betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient. Therefore, a stochastic block model that integrates betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient of nodes for community detection in attributed networks, named BCSBM, is proposed in this paper. Different from other generative models for attributed networks, the generation process of links and attributes in BCSBM model follows the Poisson distribution, and the probability between community is considered based on the stochastic block model. Moreover, the betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient of nodes are introduced into the process of links and attributes generation. Finally, the expectation maximization algorithm is employed to estimate the parameters of the BCSBM model, and the node-community memberships is obtained through the hard division process, so the community detection is completed. By experimenting on six real-work networks containing different network structures, and comparing with the community detection results of five algorithms, the experimental results show that the BCSBM model not only inherits the advantages of the stochastic block model and can detect various network structures, but also has good data fitting ability due to introducing the betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient of nodes. Overall, the performance of this model is superior to other five compared algorithms.
We investigate a class of parametric elliptic eigenvalue problems with homogeneous essential boundary conditions where the coefficients (and hence the solution $u$) may depend on a parameter $y$. For the efficient approximate evaluation of parameter sensitivities of the first eigenpairs on the entire parameter space we propose and analyse Gevrey class and analytic regularity of the solution with respect to the parameters. This is made possible by a novel proof technique which we introduce and demonstrate in this paper. Our regularity result has immediate implications for convergence of various numerical schemes for parametric elliptic eigenvalue problems, in particular, for elliptic eigenvalue problems with infinitely many parameters arising from elliptic differential operators with random coefficients.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
In recent years, object detection has experienced impressive progress. Despite these improvements, there is still a significant gap in the performance between the detection of small and large objects. We analyze the current state-of-the-art model, Mask-RCNN, on a challenging dataset, MS COCO. We show that the overlap between small ground-truth objects and the predicted anchors is much lower than the expected IoU threshold. We conjecture this is due to two factors; (1) only a few images are containing small objects, and (2) small objects do not appear enough even within each image containing them. We thus propose to oversample those images with small objects and augment each of those images by copy-pasting small objects many times. It allows us to trade off the quality of the detector on large objects with that on small objects. We evaluate different pasting augmentation strategies, and ultimately, we achieve 9.7\% relative improvement on the instance segmentation and 7.1\% on the object detection of small objects, compared to the current state of the art method on MS COCO.
Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191