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We present DeepMVI, a deep learning method for missing value imputation in multidimensional time-series datasets. Missing values are commonplace in decision support platforms that aggregate data over long time stretches from disparate sources, and reliable data analytics calls for careful handling of missing data. One strategy is imputing the missing values, and a wide variety of algorithms exist spanning simple interpolation, matrix factorization methods like SVD, statistical models like Kalman filters, and recent deep learning methods. We show that often these provide worse results on aggregate analytics compared to just excluding the missing data. DeepMVI uses a neural network to combine fine-grained and coarse-grained patterns along a time series, and trends from related series across categorical dimensions. After failing with off-the-shelf neural architectures, we design our own network that includes a temporal transformer with a novel convolutional window feature, and kernel regression with learned embeddings. The parameters and their training are designed carefully to generalize across different placements of missing blocks and data characteristics. Experiments across nine real datasets, four different missing scenarios, comparing seven existing methods show that DeepMVI is significantly more accurate, reducing error by more than 50% in more than half the cases, compared to the best existing method. Although slower than simpler matrix factorization methods, we justify the increased time overheads by showing that DeepMVI is the only option that provided overall more accurate analytics than dropping missing values.

In prediction of forest parameters with data from remote sensing (RS), regression models have traditionally been trained on a small sample of ground reference data. This paper proposes to impute this sample of true prediction targets with data from an existing RS-based prediction map that we consider as pseudo-targets. This substantially increases the amount of target training data and leverages the use of deep learning (DL) for semi-supervised regression modelling. We use prediction maps constructed from airborne laser scanning (ALS) data to provide accurate pseudo-targets and free data from Sentinel-1's C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) as regressors. A modified U-Net architecture is adapted with a selection of different training objectives. We demonstrate that when a judicious combination of loss functions is used, the semi-supervised imputation strategy produces results that surpass traditional ALS-based regression models, even though \sen data are considered as inferior for forest monitoring. These results are consistent for experiments on above-ground biomass prediction in Tanzania and stem volume prediction in Norway, representing a diversity in parameters and forest types that emphasises the robustness of the approach.

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at //github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

This paper studies structured node classification on graphs, where the predictions should consider dependencies between the node labels. In particular, we focus on solving the problem for partially labeled graphs where it is essential to incorporate the information in the known label for predicting the unknown labels. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework leveraging the diffusion probabilistic model for structured node classification (DPM-SNC). At the heart of our framework is the extraordinary capability of DPM-SNC to (a) learn a joint distribution over the labels with an expressive reverse diffusion process and (b) make predictions conditioned on the known labels utilizing manifold-constrained sampling. Since the DPMs lack training algorithms for partially labeled data, we design a novel training algorithm to apply DPMs, maximizing a new variational lower bound. We also theoretically analyze how DPMs benefit node classification by enhancing the expressive power of GNNs based on proposing AGG-WL, which is strictly more powerful than the classic 1-WL test. We extensively verify the superiority of our DPM-SNC in diverse scenarios, which include not only the transductive setting on partially labeled graphs but also the inductive setting and unlabeled graphs.

Despite the notable accomplishments of deep object detection models, a major challenge that persists is the requirement for extensive amounts of training data. The process of procuring such real-world data is a laborious undertaking, which has prompted researchers to explore new avenues of research, such as synthetic data generation techniques. This study presents a framework for the generation of synthetic datasets by fine-tuning pretrained stable diffusion models. The synthetic datasets are then manually annotated and employed for training various object detection models. These detectors are evaluated on a real-world test set of 331 images and compared against a baseline model that was trained on real-world images. The results of this study reveal that the object detection models trained on synthetic data perform similarly to the baseline model. In the context of apple detection in orchards, the average precision deviation with the baseline ranges from 0.09 to 0.12. This study illustrates the potential of synthetic data generation techniques as a viable alternative to the collection of extensive training data for the training of deep models.

We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models and introduce a multilevel discounting scheme which allows a flexible specification of the dynamics of the model weights. This novel and simple model combination approach can be easily applied to large scale model averaging/selection, can handle unusual features such as sudden regime changes, and can be tailored to different forecasting problems. We compare our method to both established methodologies and state of the art methods for a number of macroeconomic forecasting examples. We find that the proposed method offers an attractive, computationally efficient alternative to the benchmark methodologies and often outperforms more complex techniques.

Denoising diffusion models represent a recent emerging topic in computer vision, demonstrating remarkable results in the area of generative modeling. A diffusion model is a deep generative model that is based on two stages, a forward diffusion stage and a reverse diffusion stage. In the forward diffusion stage, the input data is gradually perturbed over several steps by adding Gaussian noise. In the reverse stage, a model is tasked at recovering the original input data by learning to gradually reverse the diffusion process, step by step. Diffusion models are widely appreciated for the quality and diversity of the generated samples, despite their known computational burdens, i.e. low speeds due to the high number of steps involved during sampling. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of articles on denoising diffusion models applied in vision, comprising both theoretical and practical contributions in the field. First, we identify and present three generic diffusion modeling frameworks, which are based on denoising diffusion probabilistic models, noise conditioned score networks, and stochastic differential equations. We further discuss the relations between diffusion models and other deep generative models, including variational auto-encoders, generative adversarial networks, energy-based models, autoregressive models and normalizing flows. Then, we introduce a multi-perspective categorization of diffusion models applied in computer vision. Finally, we illustrate the current limitations of diffusion models and envision some interesting directions for future research.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

In structure learning, the output is generally a structure that is used as supervision information to achieve good performance. Considering the interpretation of deep learning models has raised extended attention these years, it will be beneficial if we can learn an interpretable structure from deep learning models. In this paper, we focus on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) whose inner mechanism is still not clearly understood. We find that Finite State Automaton (FSA) that processes sequential data has more interpretable inner mechanism and can be learned from RNNs as the interpretable structure. We propose two methods to learn FSA from RNN based on two different clustering methods. We first give the graphical illustration of FSA for human beings to follow, which shows the interpretability. From the FSA's point of view, we then analyze how the performance of RNNs are affected by the number of gates, as well as the semantic meaning behind the transition of numerical hidden states. Our results suggest that RNNs with simple gated structure such as Minimal Gated Unit (MGU) is more desirable and the transitions in FSA leading to specific classification result are associated with corresponding words which are understandable by human beings.