Since distribution shifts are common in real-world applications, there is a pressing need for developing prediction models that are robust against such shifts. Existing frameworks, such as empirical risk minimization or distributionally robust optimization, either lack generalizability for unseen distributions or rely on postulated distance measures. Alternatively, causality offers a data-driven and structural perspective to robust predictions. However, the assumptions necessary for causal inference can be overly stringent, and the robustness offered by such causal models often lacks flexibility. In this paper, we focus on causality-oriented robustness and propose Distributional Robustness via Invariant Gradients (DRIG), a method that exploits general additive interventions in training data for robust predictions against unseen interventions, and naturally interpolates between in-distribution prediction and causality. In a linear setting, we prove that DRIG yields predictions that are robust among a data-dependent class of distribution shifts. Furthermore, we show that our framework includes anchor regression (Rothenh\"ausler et al.\ 2021) as a special case, and that it yields prediction models that protect against more diverse perturbations. We extend our approach to the semi-supervised domain adaptation setting to further improve prediction performance. Finally, we empirically validate our methods on synthetic simulations and on single-cell data.
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Robustness to distribution shift and fairness have independently emerged as two important desiderata required of modern machine learning models. While these two desiderata seem related, the connection between them is often unclear in practice. Here, we discuss these connections through a causal lens, focusing on anti-causal prediction tasks, where the input to a classifier (e.g., an image) is assumed to be generated as a function of the target label and the protected attribute. By taking this perspective, we draw explicit connections between a common fairness criterion - separation - and a common notion of robustness - risk invariance. These connections provide new motivation for applying the separation criterion in anticausal settings, and inform old discussions regarding fairness-performance tradeoffs. In addition, our findings suggest that robustness-motivated approaches can be used to enforce separation, and that they often work better in practice than methods designed to directly enforce separation. Using a medical dataset, we empirically validate our findings on the task of detecting pneumonia from X-rays, in a setting where differences in prevalence across sex groups motivates a fairness mitigation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering causal structure when choosing and enforcing fairness criteria.
Science mapping is an important tool to gain insight into scientific fields, to identify emerging research trends, and to support science policy. Understanding the different ways in which different science mapping approaches capture the structure of scientific fields is critical. This paper presents a comparative analysis of two commonly used approaches, topic modeling (TM) and citation-based clustering (CC), to assess their respective strengths, weaknesses, and the characteristics of their results. We compare the two approaches using cluster-to-topic and topic-to-cluster mappings based on science maps of cardiovascular research (CVR) generated by TM and CC. Our findings reveal that relations between topics and clusters are generally weak, with limited overlap between topics and clusters. Only in a few exceptional cases do more than one-third of the documents in a topic belong to the same cluster, or vice versa. CC excels at identifying diseases and generating specialized clusters in Clinical Treatment & Surgical Procedures, while TM focuses on sub-techniques within diagnostic techniques, provides a general perspective on Clinical Treatment & Surgical Procedures, and identifies distinct topics related to practical guidelines. Our work enhances the understanding of science mapping approaches based on TM and CC and delivers practical guidance for scientometricians on how to apply these approaches effectively.
In relational verification, judicious alignment of computational steps facilitates proof of relations between programs using simple relational assertions. Relational Hoare logics (RHL) provide compositional rules that embody various alignments of executions. Seemingly more flexible alignments can be expressed in terms of product automata based on program transition relations. A single degenerate alignment rule (self-composition), atop a complete Hoare logic, comprises a RHL for $\forall\forall$ properties that is complete in the ordinary logical sense. The notion of alignment completeness was previously proposed as a more satisfactory measure, and some rules were shown to be alignment complete with respect to a few ad hoc forms of alignment automata. This paper proves alignment completeness with respect to a general class of $\forall\forall$ alignment automata, for a RHL comprised of standard rules together with a rule of semantics-preserving rewrites based on Kleene algebra with tests. A new logic for $\forall\exists$ properties is introduced and shown to be alignment complete. The $\forall\forall$ and $\forall\exists$ automata are shown to be semantically complete. Thus the logics are both complete in the ordinary sense.
The modeling and simulation of high-dimensional multiscale systems is a critical challenge across all areas of science and engineering. It is broadly believed that even with today's computer advances resolving all spatiotemporal scales described by the governing equations remains a remote target. This realization has prompted intense efforts to develop model order reduction techniques. In recent years, techniques based on deep recurrent neural networks have produced promising results for the modeling and simulation of complex spatiotemporal systems and offer large flexibility in model development as they can incorporate experimental and computational data. However, neural networks lack interpretability, which limits their utility and generalizability across complex systems. Here we propose a novel framework of Interpretable Learning Effective Dynamics (iLED) that offers comparable accuracy to state-of-the-art recurrent neural network-based approaches while providing the added benefit of interpretability. The iLED framework is motivated by Mori-Zwanzig and Koopman operator theory, which justifies the choice of the specific architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in simulations of three benchmark multiscale systems. Our results show that the iLED framework can generate accurate predictions and obtain interpretable dynamics, making it a promising approach for solving high-dimensional multiscale systems.
It is crucial to detect when an instance lies downright too far from the training samples for the machine learning model to be trusted, a challenge known as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. For neural networks, one approach to this task consists of learning a diversity of predictors that all can explain the training data. This information can be used to estimate the epistemic uncertainty at a given newly observed instance in terms of a measure of the disagreement of the predictions. Evaluation and certification of the ability of a method to detect OOD require specifying instances which are likely to occur in deployment yet on which no prediction is available. Focusing on regression tasks, we choose a simple yet insightful model for this OOD distribution and conduct an empirical evaluation of the ability of various methods to discriminate OOD samples from the data. Moreover, we exhibit evidence that a diversity of parameters may fail to translate to a diversity of predictors. Based on the choice of an OOD distribution, we propose a new way of estimating the entropy of a distribution on predictors based on nearest neighbors in function space. This leads to a variational objective which, combined with the family of distributions given by a generative neural network, systematically produces a diversity of predictors that provides a robust way to detect OOD samples.
Permutation tests are widely recognized as robust alternatives to tests based on the normal theory. Random permutation tests have been frequently employed to assess the significance of variables in linear models. Despite their widespread use, existing random permutation tests lack finite-sample and assumption-free guarantees for controlling type I error in partial correlation tests. To address this standing challenge, we develop a conformal test through permutation-augmented regressions, which we refer to as PALMRT. PALMRT not only achieves power competitive with conventional methods but also provides reliable control of type I errors at no more than $2\alpha$ given any targeted level $\alpha$, for arbitrary fixed-designs and error distributions. We confirmed this through extensive simulations. Compared to the cyclic permutation test (CPT), which also offers theoretical guarantees, PALMRT does not significantly compromise power or set stringent requirements on the sample size, making it suitable for diverse biomedical applications. We further illustrate their differences in a long-Covid study where PALMRT validated key findings previously identified using the t-test, while CPT suffered from a drastic loss of power. We endorse PALMRT as a robust and practical hypothesis test in scientific research for its superior error control, power preservation, and simplicity.
Reinforcement learning of real-world tasks is very data inefficient, and extensive simulation-based modelling has become the dominant approach for training systems. However, in human-robot interaction and many other real-world settings, there is no appropriate one-model-for-all due to differences in individual instances of the system (e.g. different people) or necessary oversimplifications in the simulation models. This requires two approaches: 1. either learning the individual system's dynamics approximately from data which requires data-intensive training or 2. using a complete digital twin of the instances, which may not be realisable in many cases. We introduce two approaches: co-kriging adjustments (CKA) and ridge regression adjustment (RRA) as novel ways to combine the advantages of both approaches. Our adjustment methods are based on an auto-regressive AR1 co-kriging model that we integrate with GP priors. This yield a data- and simulation-efficient way of using simplistic simulation models (e.g., simple two-link model) and rapidly adapting them to individual instances (e.g., biomechanics of individual people). Using CKA and RRA, we obtain more accurate uncertainty quantification of the entire system's dynamics than pure GP-based and AR1 methods. We demonstrate the efficiency of co-kriging adjustment with an interpretable reinforcement learning control example, learning to control a biomechanical human arm using only a two-link arm simulation model (offline part) and CKA derived from a small amount of interaction data (on-the-fly online). Our method unlocks an efficient and uncertainty-aware way to implement reinforcement learning methods in real world complex systems for which only imperfect simulation models exist.
Developing an efficient computational scheme for high-dimensional Bayesian variable selection in generalised linear models and survival models has always been a challenging problem due to the absence of closed-form solutions for the marginal likelihood. The RJMCMC approach can be employed to samples model and coefficients jointly, but effective design of the transdimensional jumps of RJMCMC can be challenge, making it hard to implement. Alternatively, the marginal likelihood can be derived using data-augmentation scheme e.g. Polya-gamma data argumentation for logistic regression) or through other estimation methods. However, suitable data-augmentation schemes are not available for every generalised linear and survival models, and using estimations such as Laplace approximation or correlated pseudo-marginal to derive marginal likelihood within a locally informed proposal can be computationally expensive in the "large n, large p" settings. In this paper, three main contributions are presented. Firstly, we present an extended Point-wise implementation of Adaptive Random Neighbourhood Informed proposal (PARNI) to efficiently sample models directly from the marginal posterior distribution in both generalised linear models and survival models. Secondly, in the light of the approximate Laplace approximation, we also describe an efficient and accurate estimation method for the marginal likelihood which involves adaptive parameters. Additionally, we describe a new method to adapt the algorithmic tuning parameters of the PARNI proposal by replacing the Rao-Blackwellised estimates with the combination of a warm-start estimate and an ergodic average. We present numerous numerical results from simulated data and 8 high-dimensional gene fine mapping data-sets to showcase the efficiency of the novel PARNI proposal compared to the baseline add-delete-swap proposal.
The knockoff filter of Barber and Candes (arXiv:1404.5609) is a flexible framework for multiple testing in supervised learning models, based on introducing synthetic predictor variables to control the false discovery rate (FDR). Using the conditional calibration framework of Fithian and Lei (arXiv:2007.10438), we introduce the calibrated knockoff procedure, a method that uniformly improves the power of any knockoff procedure. We implement our method for fixed-X knockoffs and show theoretically and empirically that the improvement is especially notable in two contexts where knockoff methods can be nearly powerless: when the rejection set is small, and when the structure of the design matrix prevents us from constructing good knockoff variables. In these contexts, calibrated knockoffs even outperform competing FDR-controlling methods like the (dependence-adjusted) Benjamini-Hochberg procedure in many scenarios.
Besov priors are nonparametric priors that can model spatially inhomogeneous functions. They are routinely used in inverse problems and imaging, where they exhibit attractive sparsity-promoting and edge-preserving features. A recent line of work has initiated the study of their asymptotic frequentist convergence properties. In the present paper, we consider the theoretical recovery performance of the posterior distributions associated to Besov-Laplace priors in the density estimation model, under the assumption that the observations are generated by a possibly spatially inhomogeneous true density belonging to a Besov space. We improve on existing results and show that carefully tuned Besov-Laplace priors attain optimal posterior contraction rates. Furthermore, we show that hierarchical procedures involving a hyper-prior on the regularity parameter lead to adaptation to any smoothness level.
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