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In this paper, we propose a deep learning based numerical scheme for strongly coupled FBSDEs, stemming from stochastic control. It is a modification of the deep BSDE method in which the initial value to the backward equation is not a free parameter, and with a new loss function being the weighted sum of the cost of the control problem, and a variance term which coincides with the mean squared error in the terminal condition. We show by a numerical example that a direct extension of the classical deep BSDE method to FBSDEs, fails for a simple linear-quadratic control problem, and motivate why the new method works. Under regularity and boundedness assumptions on the exact controls of time continuous and time discrete control problems, we provide an error analysis for our method. We show empirically that the method converges for three different problems, one being the one that failed for a direct extension of the deep BSDE method.

Statistical wisdom suggests that very complex models, interpolating training data, will be poor at predicting unseen examples.Yet, this aphorism has been recently challenged by the identification of benign overfitting regimes, specially studied in the case of parametric models: generalization capabilities may be preserved despite model high complexity.While it is widely known that fully-grown decision trees interpolate and, in turn, have bad predictive performances, the same behavior is yet to be analyzed for Random Forests (RF).In this paper, we study the trade-off between interpolation and consistency for several types of RF algorithms. Theoretically, we prove that interpolation regimes and consistency cannot be achieved simultaneously for several non-adaptive RF.Since adaptivity seems to be the cornerstone to bring together interpolation and consistency, we study interpolating Median RF which are proved to be consistent in the interpolating regime. This is the first result conciliating interpolation and consistency for RF, highlighting that the averaging effect introduced by feature randomization is a key mechanism, sufficient to ensure the consistency in the interpolation regime and beyond.Numerical experiments show that Breiman's RF are consistent while exactly interpolating, when no bootstrap step is involved.We theoretically control the size of the interpolation area, which converges fast enough to zero, giving a necessary condition for exact interpolation and consistency to occur in conjunction.

Suppose we are given access to $n$ independent samples from distribution $\mu$ and we wish to output one of them with the goal of making the output distributed as close as possible to a target distribution $\nu$. In this work we show that the optimal total variation distance as a function of $n$ is given by $\tilde\Theta(\frac{D}{f'(n)})$ over the class of all pairs $\nu,\mu$ with a bounded $f$-divergence $D_f(\nu\|\mu)\leq D$. Previously, this question was studied only for the case when the Radon-Nikodym derivative of $\nu$ with respect to $\mu$ is uniformly bounded. We then consider an application in the seemingly very different field of smoothed online learning, where we show that recent results on the minimax regret and the regret of oracle-efficient algorithms still hold even under relaxed constraints on the adversary (to have bounded $f$-divergence, as opposed to bounded Radon-Nikodym derivative). Finally, we also study efficacy of importance sampling for mean estimates uniform over a function class and compare importance sampling with rejection sampling.

Epsilon-lexicase selection is a parent selection method in genetic programming that has been successfully applied to symbolic regression problems. Recently, the combination of random subsampling with lexicase selection significantly improved performance in other genetic programming domains such as program synthesis. However, the influence of subsampling on the solution quality of real-world symbolic regression problems has not yet been studied. In this paper, we propose down-sampled epsilon-lexicase selection which combines epsilon-lexicase selection with random subsampling to improve the performance in the domain of symbolic regression. Therefore, we compare down-sampled epsilon-lexicase with traditional selection methods on common real-world symbolic regression problems and analyze its influence on the properties of the population over a genetic programming run. We find that the diversity is reduced by using down-sampled epsilon-lexicase selection compared to standard epsilon-lexicase selection. This comes along with high hyperselection rates we observe for down-sampled epsilon-lexicase selection. Further, we find that down-sampled epsilon-lexicase selection outperforms the traditional selection methods on all studied problems. Overall, with down-sampled epsilon-lexicase selection we observe an improvement of the solution quality of up to 85% in comparison to standard epsilon-lexicase selection.

In day-ahead electricity markets based on uniform marginal pricing, small variations in the offering and bidding curves may substantially modify the resulting market outcomes. In this work, we deal with the problem of finding the optimal offering curve for a risk-averse profit-maximizing generating company (GENCO) in a data-driven context. In particular, a large GENCO's market share may imply that her offering strategy can alter the marginal price formation, which can be used to increase profit. We tackle this problem from a novel perspective. First, we propose a optimization-based methodology to summarize each GENCO's step-wise supply curves into a subset of representative price-energy blocks. Then, the relationship between the market price and the resulting energy block offering prices is modeled through a Bayesian linear regression approach, which also allows us to generate stochastic scenarios for the sensibility of the market towards the GENCO strategy, represented by the regression coefficient probabilistic distributions. Finally, this predictive model is embedded in the stochastic optimization model by employing a constraint learning approach. Results show how allowing the GENCO to deviate from her true marginal costs renders significant changes in her profits and the market marginal price. Furthermore, these results have also been tested in an out-of-sample validation setting, showing how this optimal offering strategy is also effective in a real-world market contest.

Many important computer vision applications are naturally formulated as regression problems. Within medical imaging, accurate regression models have the potential to automate various tasks, helping to lower costs and improve patient outcomes. Such safety-critical deployment does however require reliable estimation of model uncertainty, also under the wide variety of distribution shifts that might be encountered in practice. Motivated by this, we set out to investigate the reliability of regression uncertainty estimation methods under various real-world distribution shifts. To that end, we propose an extensive benchmark of 8 image-based regression datasets with different types of challenging distribution shifts. We then employ our benchmark to evaluate many of the most common uncertainty estimation methods, as well as two state-of-the-art uncertainty scores from the task of out-of-distribution detection. We find that while methods are well calibrated when there is no distribution shift, they all become highly overconfident on many of the benchmark datasets. This uncovers important limitations of current uncertainty estimation methods, and the proposed benchmark therefore serves as a challenge to the research community. We hope that our benchmark will spur more work on how to develop truly reliable regression uncertainty estimation methods. Code is available at //github.com/fregu856/regression_uncertainty.

Safety has been recognized as the central obstacle to preventing the use of reinforcement learning (RL) for real-world applications. Different methods have been developed to deal with safety concerns in RL. However, learning reliable RL-based solutions usually require a large number of interactions with the environment. Likewise, how to improve the learning efficiency, specifically, how to utilize transfer learning for safe reinforcement learning, has not been well studied. In this work, we propose an adaptive aggregation framework for safety-critical control. Our method comprises two key techniques: 1) we learn to transfer the safety knowledge by aggregating the multiple source tasks and a target task through the attention network; 2) we separate the goal of improving task performance and reducing constraint violations by utilizing a safeguard. Experiment results demonstrate that our algorithm can achieve fewer safety violations while showing better data efficiency compared with several baselines.

In this article, we derive and compare methods to derive \textit{p}-values and sets of confidence intervals with strong control of the family-wise error rates and coverage for estimates of treatment effects in cluster randomised trials with multiple outcomes. There are few methods for \textit{p}-value corrections and deriving confidence intervals, limiting their application in this setting. We discuss the methods of Bonferroni, Holm, and Romano \& Wolf (2005) and adapt them to cluster randomised trial inference using permutation-based methods with different test statistics. We develop a novel search procedure for confidence set limits using permutation tests to produce a set of confidence intervals under each method of correction. We conduct a simulation-based study to compare family-wise error rates, coverage of confidence sets, and the efficiency of each procedure in comparison to no correction using both model-based standard errors and permutation tests. We show that the Romano-Wolf type procedure has nominal error rates and coverage under non-independent correlation structures and is more efficient than the other methods in a simulation-based study. We also compare results from the analysis of a real-world trial.

Selecting a suitable training dataset is crucial for both general-domain (e.g., GPT-3) and domain-specific (e.g., Codex) language models (LMs). We formalize this data selection problem as selecting a subset of a large raw unlabeled dataset to match a desired target distribution, given some unlabeled target samples. Due to the large scale and dimensionality of the raw text data, existing methods use simple heuristics to select data that are similar to a high-quality reference corpus (e.g., Wikipedia), or leverage experts to manually curate data. Instead, we extend the classic importance resampling approach used in low-dimensions for LM data selection. Crucially, we work in a reduced feature space to make importance weight estimation tractable over the space of text. To determine an appropriate feature space, we first show that KL reduction, a data metric that measures the proximity between selected data and the target in a feature space, has high correlation with average accuracy on 8 downstream tasks (r=0.89) when computed with simple n-gram features. From this observation, we present Data Selection with Importance Resampling (DSIR), an efficient and scalable algorithm that estimates importance weights in a reduced feature space (e.g., n-gram features in our instantiation) and selects data with importance resampling according to these weights. When training general-domain models (target is Wikipedia + books), DSIR improves over random selection and heuristic filtering baselines by 2--2.5% on the GLUE benchmark. When performing continued pretraining towards a specific domain, DSIR performs comparably to expert curated data across 8 target distributions.

It is well-known that for sparse linear bandits, when ignoring the dependency on sparsity which is much smaller than the ambient dimension, the worst-case minimax regret is $\widetilde{\Theta}\left(\sqrt{dT}\right)$ where $d$ is the ambient dimension and $T$ is the number of rounds. On the other hand, in the benign setting where there is no noise and the action set is the unit sphere, one can use divide-and-conquer to achieve $\widetilde{\mathcal O}(1)$ regret, which is (nearly) independent of $d$ and $T$. In this paper, we present the first variance-aware regret guarantee for sparse linear bandits: $\widetilde{\mathcal O}\left(\sqrt{d\sum_{t=1}^T \sigma_t^2} + 1\right)$, where $\sigma_t^2$ is the variance of the noise at the $t$-th round. This bound naturally interpolates the regret bounds for the worst-case constant-variance regime (i.e., $\sigma_t \equiv \Omega(1)$) and the benign deterministic regimes (i.e., $\sigma_t \equiv 0$). To achieve this variance-aware regret guarantee, we develop a general framework that converts any variance-aware linear bandit algorithm to a variance-aware algorithm for sparse linear bandits in a "black-box" manner. Specifically, we take two recent algorithms as black boxes to illustrate that the claimed bounds indeed hold, where the first algorithm can handle unknown-variance cases and the second one is more efficient.