Probabilistic forecasting relies on past observations to provide a probability distribution for a future outcome, which is often evaluated against the realization using a scoring rule. Here, we perform probabilistic forecasting with generative neural networks, which parametrize distributions on high-dimensional spaces by transforming draws from a latent variable. Generative networks are typically trained in an adversarial framework. In contrast, we propose to train generative networks to minimize a predictive-sequential (or prequential) scoring rule on a recorded temporal sequence of the phenomenon of interest, which is appealing as it corresponds to the way forecasting systems are routinely evaluated. Adversarial-free minimization is possible for some scoring rules; hence, our framework avoids the cumbersome hyperparameter tuning and uncertainty underestimation due to unstable adversarial training, thus unlocking reliable use of generative networks in probabilistic forecasting. Further, we prove consistency of the minimizer of our objective with dependent data, while adversarial training assumes independence. We perform simulation studies on two chaotic dynamical models and a benchmark data set of global weather observations; for this last example, we define scoring rules for spatial data by drawing from the relevant literature. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art adversarial approaches, especially in probabilistic calibration, while requiring less hyperparameter tuning.
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The evolution of data architecture has seen the rise of data lakes, aiming to solve the bottlenecks of data management and promote intelligent decision-making. However, this centralized architecture is limited by the proliferation of data sources and the growing demand for timely analysis and processing. A new data paradigm, Data Mesh, is proposed to overcome these challenges. Data Mesh treats domains as a first-class concern by distributing the data ownership from the central team to each data domain, while keeping the federated governance to monitor domains and their data products. Many multi-million dollar organizations like Paypal, Netflix, and Zalando have already transformed their data analysis pipelines based on this new architecture. In this decentralized architecture where data is locally preserved by each domain team, traditional centralized machine learning is incapable of conducting effective analysis across multiple domains, especially for security-sensitive organizations. To this end, we introduce a pioneering approach that incorporates Federated Learning into Data Mesh. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first open-source applied work that represents a critical advancement toward the integration of federated learning methods into the Data Mesh paradigm, underscoring the promising prospects for privacy-preserving and decentralized data analysis strategies within Data Mesh architecture.
Fast development in science and technology has driven the need for proper statistical tools to capture special data features such as abrupt changes or sharp contrast. Many inverse problems in data science require spatiotemporal solutions derived from a sequence of time-dependent objects with these spatial features, e.g., dynamic reconstruction of computerized tomography (CT) images with edges. Conventional methods based on Gaussian processes (GP) often fall short in providing satisfactory solutions since they tend to offer over-smooth priors. Recently, the Besov process (BP), defined by wavelet expansions with random coefficients, has emerged as a more suitable prior for Bayesian inverse problems of this nature. While BP excels in handling spatial inhomogeneity, it does not automatically incorporate temporal correlation inherited in the dynamically changing objects. In this paper, we generalize BP to a novel spatiotemporal Besov process (STBP) by replacing the random coefficients in the series expansion with stochastic time functions as Q-exponential process (Q-EP) which governs the temporal correlation structure. We thoroughly investigate the mathematical and statistical properties of STBP. A white-noise representation of STBP is also proposed to facilitate the inference. Simulations, two limited-angle CT reconstruction examples and a highly non-linear inverse problem involving Navier-Stokes equation are used to demonstrate the advantage of the proposed STBP in preserving spatial features while accounting for temporal changes compared with the classic STGP and a time-uncorrelated approach.
Visual planning methods are promising to handle complex settings where extracting the system state is challenging. However, none of the existing works tackles the case of multiple heterogeneous agents which are characterized by different capabilities and/or embodiment. In this work, we propose a method to realize visual action planning in multi-agent settings by exploiting a roadmap built in a low-dimensional structured latent space and used for planning. To enable multi-agent settings, we infer possible parallel actions from a dataset composed of tuples associated with individual actions. Next, we evaluate feasibility and cost of them based on the capabilities of the multi-agent system and endow the roadmap with this information, building a capability latent space roadmap (C-LSR). Additionally, a capability suggestion strategy is designed to inform the human operator about possible missing capabilities when no paths are found. The approach is validated in a simulated burger cooking task and a real-world box packing task.
We propose a novel differentially private algorithm for online federated learning that employs temporally correlated noise to improve the utility while ensuring the privacy of the continuously released models. To address challenges stemming from DP noise and local updates with streaming noniid data, we develop a perturbed iterate analysis to control the impact of the DP noise on the utility. Moreover, we demonstrate how the drift errors from local updates can be effectively managed under a quasi-strong convexity condition. Subject to an $(\epsilon, \delta)$-DP budget, we establish a dynamic regret bound over the entire time horizon that quantifies the impact of key parameters and the intensity of changes in dynamic environments. Numerical experiments validate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.
The efficacy of machine learning has traditionally relied on the availability of increasingly larger datasets. However, large datasets pose storage challenges and contain non-influential samples, which could be ignored during training without impacting the final accuracy of the model. In response to these limitations, the concept of distilling the information on a dataset into a condensed set of (synthetic) samples, namely a distilled dataset, emerged. One crucial aspect is the selected architecture (usually ConvNet) for linking the original and synthetic datasets. However, the final accuracy is lower if the employed model architecture differs from the model used during distillation. Another challenge is the generation of high-resolution images, e.g., 128x128 and higher. In this paper, we propose Latent Dataset Distillation with Diffusion Models (LD3M) that combine diffusion in latent space with dataset distillation to tackle both challenges. LD3M incorporates a novel diffusion process tailored for dataset distillation, which improves the gradient norms for learning synthetic images. By adjusting the number of diffusion steps, LD3M also offers a straightforward way of controlling the trade-off between speed and accuracy. We evaluate our approach in several ImageNet subsets and for high-resolution images (128x128 and 256x256). As a result, LD3M consistently outperforms state-of-the-art distillation techniques by up to 4.8 p.p. and 4.2 p.p. for 1 and 10 images per class, respectively.
Training energy-based models (EBMs) on high-dimensional data can be both challenging and time-consuming, and there exists a noticeable gap in sample quality between EBMs and other generative frameworks like GANs and diffusion models. To close this gap, inspired by the recent efforts of learning EBMs by maximizing diffusion recovery likelihood (DRL), we propose cooperative diffusion recovery likelihood (CDRL), an effective approach to tractably learn and sample from a series of EBMs defined on increasingly noisy versions of a dataset, paired with an initializer model for each EBM. At each noise level, the two models are jointly estimated within a cooperative training framework: samples from the initializer serve as starting points that are refined by a few MCMC sampling steps from the EBM. The EBM is then optimized by maximizing recovery likelihood, while the initializer model is optimized by learning from the difference between the refined samples and the initial samples. In addition, we made several practical designs for EBM training to further improve the sample quality. Combining these advances, our approach significantly boost the generation performance compared to existing EBM methods on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our models for several downstream tasks, including classifier-free guided generation, compositional generation, image inpainting and out-of-distribution detection.
AI systems sometimes exhibit harmful unintended behaviors post-deployment. This is often despite extensive diagnostics and debugging by developers. Minimizing risks from models is challenging because the attack surface is so large. It is not tractable to exhaustively search for inputs that may cause a model to fail. Red-teaming and adversarial training (AT) are commonly used to make AI systems more robust. However, they have not been sufficient to avoid many real-world failure modes that differ from the ones adversarially trained on. In this work, we utilize latent adversarial training (LAT) to defend against vulnerabilities without generating inputs that elicit them. LAT leverages the compressed, abstract, and structured latent representations of concepts that the network actually uses for prediction. We use LAT to remove trojans and defend against held-out classes of adversarial attacks. We show in image classification, text classification, and text generation tasks that LAT usually improves both robustness and performance on clean data relative to AT. This suggests that LAT can be a promising tool for defending against failure modes that are not explicitly identified by developers.
This paper deals with econometric models in which the dependent variable, some explanatory variables, or both are observed as censored interval data. This discretization often happens due to confidentiality of sensitive variables like income. Models using these variables cannot point identify regression parameters as the conditional moments are unknown, which led the literature to use interval estimates. Here, we propose a discretization method through which the regression parameters can be point identified while preserving data confidentiality. We demonstrate the asymptotic properties of the OLS estimator for the parameters in multivariate linear regressions for cross-sectional data. The theoretical findings are supported by Monte Carlo experiments and illustrated with an application to the Australian gender wage gap.
Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.
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