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Accurately charting the progress of oil production is a problem of great current interest. Oil production is widely known to be cyclical: in any given system, after it reaches its peak, a decline will begin. With this in mind, Marion King Hubbert developed his peak theory in 1956 based on the bell-shaped curve that bears his name. In the present work, we consider a stochasticmodel based on the theory of diffusion processes and associated with the Hubbert curve. The problem of the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters for this process is also considered. Since a complex system of equations appears, with a solution that cannot be guaranteed by classical numerical procedures, we suggest the use of metaheuristic optimization algorithms such as simulated annealing and variable neighborhood search. Some strategies are suggested for bounding the space of solutions, and a description is provided for the application of the algorithms selected. In the case of the variable neighborhood search algorithm, a hybrid method is proposed in which it is combined with simulated annealing. In order to validate the theory developed here, we also carry out some studies based on simulated data and consider 2 real crude oil production scenarios from Norway and Kazakhstan.

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 Processing 是一門開源編程語言和與之配套的集成開發環境(IDE)的名稱。Processing 在電子藝術和視覺設計社區被用來教授編程基礎,并運用于大量的新媒體和互動藝術作品中。

In the context of developing nations like India, traditional business to business (B2B) commerce heavily relies on the establishment of robust relationships, trust, and credit arrangements between buyers and sellers. Consequently, ecommerce enterprises frequently. Established in 2016 with a vision to revolutionize trade in India through technology, Udaan is the countrys largest business to business ecommerce platform. Udaan operates across diverse product categories, including lifestyle, electronics, home and employ telecallers to cultivate buyer relationships, streamline order placement procedures, and promote special promotions. The accurate anticipation of buyer order placement behavior emerges as a pivotal factor for attaining sustainable growth, heightening competitiveness, and optimizing the efficiency of these telecallers. To address this challenge, we have employed an ensemble approach comprising XGBoost and a modified version of Poisson Gamma model to predict customer order patterns with precision. This paper provides an in-depth exploration of the strategic fusion of machine learning and an empirical Bayesian approach, bolstered by the judicious selection of pertinent features. This innovative approach has yielded a remarkable 3 times increase in customer order rates, show casing its potential for transformative impact in the ecommerce industry.

For decades, Simultaneous Ascending Auction (SAA) has been the most popular mechanism used for spectrum auctions. It has recently been employed by many countries for the allocation of 5G licences. Although SAA presents relatively simple rules, it induces a complex strategic game for which the optimal bidding strategy is unknown. Considering the fact that sometimes billions of euros are at stake in an SAA, establishing an efficient bidding strategy is crucial. In this work, we model the auction as a $n$-player simultaneous move game with complete information and propose the first efficient bidding algorithm that tackles simultaneously its four main strategic issues: the $\textit{exposure problem}$, the $\textit{own price effect}$, $\textit{budget constraints}$ and the $\textit{eligibility management problem}$. Our solution, called $SMS^\alpha$, is based on Simultaneous Move Monte Carlo Tree Search (SM-MCTS) and relies on a new method for the prediction of closing prices. By introducing a new reward function in $SMS^\alpha$, we give the possibility to bidders to define their own level of risk-aversion. Through extensive numerical experiments on instances of realistic size, we show that $SMS^\alpha$ largely outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms, notably by achieving higher expected utility while taking less risks.

Purpose: To investigate whether Fractal Dimension (FD)-based oculomics could be used for individual risk prediction by evaluating repeatability and robustness. Methods: We used two datasets: Caledonia, healthy adults imaged multiple times in quick succession for research (26 subjects, 39 eyes, 377 colour fundus images), and GRAPE, glaucoma patients with baseline and follow-up visits (106 subjects, 196 eyes, 392 images). Mean follow-up time was 18.3 months in GRAPE, thus it provides a pessimistic lower-bound as vasculature could change. FD was computed with DART and AutoMorph. Image quality was assessed with QuickQual, but no images were initially excluded. Pearson, Spearman, and Intraclass Correlation (ICC) were used for population-level repeatability. For individual-level repeatability, we introduce measurement noise parameter {\lambda} which is within-eye Standard Deviation (SD) of FD measurements in units of between-eyes SD. Results: In Caledonia, ICC was 0.8153 for DART and 0.5779 for AutoMorph, Pearson/Spearman correlation (first and last image) 0.7857/0.7824 for DART, and 0.3933/0.6253 for AutoMorph. In GRAPE, Pearson/Spearman correlation (first and next visit) was 0.7479/0.7474 for DART, and 0.7109/0.7208 for AutoMorph (all p<0.0001). Median {\lambda} in Caledonia without exclusions was 3.55\% for DART and 12.65\% for AutoMorph, and improved to up to 1.67\% and 6.64\% with quality-based exclusions, respectively. Quality exclusions primarily mitigated large outliers. Worst quality in an eye correlated strongly with {\lambda} (Pearson 0.5350-0.7550, depending on dataset and method, all p<0.0001). Conclusions: Repeatability was sufficient for individual-level predictions in heterogeneous populations. DART performed better on all metrics and might be able to detect small, longitudinal changes, highlighting the potential of robust methods.

To simplify the analysis of Boolean networks, a reduction in the number of components is often considered. A popular reduction method consists in eliminating components that are not autoregulated, using variable substitution. In this work, we show how this method can be extended, for asynchronous dynamics of Boolean networks, to the elimination of vertices that have a negative autoregulation, and study the effects on the dynamics and interaction structure. For elimination of non-autoregulated variables, the preservation of attractors is in general guaranteed only for fixed points. Here we give sufficient conditions for the preservation of complex attractors. The removal of so called mediator nodes (i.e. vertices with indegree and outdegree one) is often considered, and frequently does not affect the attractor landscape. We clarify that this is not always the case, and in some situations even subtle changes in the interaction structure can lead to a different asymptotic behaviour. Finally, we use properties of the more general elimination method introduced here to give an alternative proof for a bound on the number of attractors of asynchronous Boolean networks in terms of the cardinality of positive feedback vertex sets of the interaction graph.

Missing data are frequently observed by practitioners and researchers in the building energy modeling community. In this regard, advanced data-driven solutions, such as Deep Learning methods, are typically required to reflect the non-linear behavior of these anomalies. As an ongoing research question related to Deep Learning, a model's applicability to limited data settings can be explored by introducing prior knowledge in the network. This same strategy can also lead to more interpretable predictions, hence facilitating the field application of the approach. For that purpose, the aim of this paper is to propose the use of Physics-informed Denoising Autoencoders (PI-DAE) for missing data imputation in commercial buildings. In particular, the presented method enforces physics-inspired soft constraints to the loss function of a Denoising Autoencoder (DAE). In order to quantify the benefits of the physical component, an ablation study between different DAE configurations is conducted. First, three univariate DAEs are optimized separately on indoor air temperature, heating, and cooling data. Then, two multivariate DAEs are derived from the previous configurations. Eventually, a building thermal balance equation is coupled to the last multivariate configuration to obtain PI-DAE. Additionally, two commonly used benchmarks are employed to support the findings. It is shown how introducing physical knowledge in a multivariate Denoising Autoencoder can enhance the inherent model interpretability through the optimized physics-based coefficients. While no significant improvement is observed in terms of reconstruction error with the proposed PI-DAE, its enhanced robustness to varying rates of missing data and the valuable insights derived from the physics-based coefficients create opportunities for wider applications within building systems and the built environment.

Micro-action is an imperceptible non-verbal behaviour characterised by low-intensity movement. It offers insights into the feelings and intentions of individuals and is important for human-oriented applications such as emotion recognition and psychological assessment. However, the identification, differentiation, and understanding of micro-actions pose challenges due to the imperceptible and inaccessible nature of these subtle human behaviors in everyday life. In this study, we innovatively collect a new micro-action dataset designated as Micro-action-52 (MA-52), and propose a benchmark named micro-action network (MANet) for micro-action recognition (MAR) task. Uniquely, MA-52 provides the whole-body perspective including gestures, upper- and lower-limb movements, attempting to reveal comprehensive micro-action cues. In detail, MA-52 contains 52 micro-action categories along with seven body part labels, and encompasses a full array of realistic and natural micro-actions, accounting for 205 participants and 22,422 video instances collated from the psychological interviews. Based on the proposed dataset, we assess MANet and other nine prevalent action recognition methods. MANet incorporates squeeze-and excitation (SE) and temporal shift module (TSM) into the ResNet architecture for modeling the spatiotemporal characteristics of micro-actions. Then a joint-embedding loss is designed for semantic matching between video and action labels; the loss is used to better distinguish between visually similar yet distinct micro-action categories. The extended application in emotion recognition has demonstrated one of the important values of our proposed dataset and method. In the future, further exploration of human behaviour, emotion, and psychological assessment will be conducted in depth. The dataset and source code are released at //github.com/VUT-HFUT/Micro-Action.

Spectral clustering (SC) is a popular clustering technique to find strongly connected communities on a graph. SC can be used in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to implement pooling operations that aggregate nodes belonging to the same cluster. However, the eigendecomposition of the Laplacian is expensive and, since clustering results are graph-specific, pooling methods based on SC must perform a new optimization for each new sample. In this paper, we propose a graph clustering approach that addresses these limitations of SC. We formulate a continuous relaxation of the normalized minCUT problem and train a GNN to compute cluster assignments that minimize this objective. Our GNN-based implementation is differentiable, does not require to compute the spectral decomposition, and learns a clustering function that can be quickly evaluated on out-of-sample graphs. From the proposed clustering method, we design a graph pooling operator that overcomes some important limitations of state-of-the-art graph pooling techniques and achieves the best performance in several supervised and unsupervised tasks.

With the rise of knowledge graph (KG), question answering over knowledge base (KBQA) has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Despite much research has been conducted on this topic, it is still challenging to apply KBQA technology in industry because business knowledge and real-world questions can be rather complicated. In this paper, we present AliMe-KBQA, a bold attempt to apply KBQA in the E-commerce customer service field. To handle real knowledge and questions, we extend the classic "subject-predicate-object (SPO)" structure with property hierarchy, key-value structure and compound value type (CVT), and enhance traditional KBQA with constraints recognition and reasoning ability. We launch AliMe-KBQA in the Marketing Promotion scenario for merchants during the "Double 11" period in 2018 and other such promotional events afterwards. Online results suggest that AliMe-KBQA is not only able to gain better resolution and improve customer satisfaction, but also becomes the preferred knowledge management method by business knowledge staffs since it offers a more convenient and efficient management experience.

Object detection is an important and challenging problem in computer vision. Although the past decade has witnessed major advances in object detection in natural scenes, such successes have been slow to aerial imagery, not only because of the huge variation in the scale, orientation and shape of the object instances on the earth's surface, but also due to the scarcity of well-annotated datasets of objects in aerial scenes. To advance object detection research in Earth Vision, also known as Earth Observation and Remote Sensing, we introduce a large-scale Dataset for Object deTection in Aerial images (DOTA). To this end, we collect $2806$ aerial images from different sensors and platforms. Each image is of the size about 4000-by-4000 pixels and contains objects exhibiting a wide variety of scales, orientations, and shapes. These DOTA images are then annotated by experts in aerial image interpretation using $15$ common object categories. The fully annotated DOTA images contains $188,282$ instances, each of which is labeled by an arbitrary (8 d.o.f.) quadrilateral To build a baseline for object detection in Earth Vision, we evaluate state-of-the-art object detection algorithms on DOTA. Experiments demonstrate that DOTA well represents real Earth Vision applications and are quite challenging.

Image segmentation is still an open problem especially when intensities of the interested objects are overlapped due to the presence of intensity inhomogeneity (also known as bias field). To segment images with intensity inhomogeneities, a bias correction embedded level set model is proposed where Inhomogeneities are Estimated by Orthogonal Primary Functions (IEOPF). In the proposed model, the smoothly varying bias is estimated by a linear combination of a given set of orthogonal primary functions. An inhomogeneous intensity clustering energy is then defined and membership functions of the clusters described by the level set function are introduced to rewrite the energy as a data term of the proposed model. Similar to popular level set methods, a regularization term and an arc length term are also included to regularize and smooth the level set function, respectively. The proposed model is then extended to multichannel and multiphase patterns to segment colourful images and images with multiple objects, respectively. It has been extensively tested on both synthetic and real images that are widely used in the literature and public BrainWeb and IBSR datasets. Experimental results and comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that advantages of the proposed model in terms of bias correction and segmentation accuracy.

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