We consider the statistical analysis of heterogeneous data for prediction in situations where the observations include functions, typically time series. We extend the modeling with Mixtures-of-Experts (ME), as a framework of choice in modeling heterogeneity in data for prediction with vectorial observations, to this functional data analysis context. We first present a new family of ME models, named functional ME (FME) in which the predictors are potentially noisy observations, from entire functions. Furthermore, the data generating process of the predictor and the real response, is governed by a hidden discrete variable representing an unknown partition. Second, by imposing sparsity on derivatives of the underlying functional parameters via Lasso-like regularizations, we provide sparse and interpretable functional representations of the FME models called iFME. We develop dedicated expectation--maximization algorithms for Lasso-like (EM-Lasso) regularized maximum-likelihood parameter estimation strategies to fit the models. The proposed models and algorithms are studied in simulated scenarios and in applications to two real data sets, and the obtained results demonstrate their performance in accurately capturing complex nonlinear relationships and in clustering the heterogeneous regression data.
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We study the online learnability of hypothesis classes with respect to arbitrary, but bounded loss functions. No characterization of online learnability is known at this level of generality. We give a new scale-sensitive combinatorial dimension, named the sequential minimax dimension, and show that it gives a tight quantitative characterization of online learnability. In addition, we show that the sequential minimax dimension subsumes most existing combinatorial dimensions in online learning theory.
Room geometry inference algorithms rely on the localization of acoustic reflectors to identify boundary surfaces of an enclosure. Rooms with highly absorptive walls or walls at large distances from the measurement setup pose challenges for such algorithms. As it is not always possible to localize all walls, we present a data-driven method to jointly detect and localize acoustic reflectors that correspond to nearby and/or reflective walls. A multi-branch convolutional recurrent neural network is employed for this purpose. The network's input consists of a time-domain acoustic beamforming map, obtained via Radon transform from multi-channel room impulse responses. A modified loss function is proposed that forces the network to pay more attention to walls that can be estimated with a small error. Simulation results show that the proposed method can detect nearby and/or reflective walls and improve the localization performance for the detected walls.
We develop a general theory to optimize the frequentist regret for sequential learning problems, where efficient bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms can be derived from unified Bayesian principles. We propose a novel optimization approach to generate "algorithmic beliefs" at each round, and use Bayesian posteriors to make decisions. The optimization objective to create "algorithmic beliefs," which we term "Algorithmic Information Ratio," represents an intrinsic complexity measure that effectively characterizes the frequentist regret of any algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematical approach to make Bayesian-type algorithms prior-free and applicable to adversarial settings, in a generic and optimal manner. Moreover, the algorithms are simple and often efficient to implement. As a major application, we present a novel algorithm for multi-armed bandits that achieves the "best-of-all-worlds" empirical performance in the stochastic, adversarial, and non-stationary environments. And we illustrate how these principles can be used in linear bandits, bandit convex optimization, and reinforcement learning.
Models of choice are a fundamental input to many now-canonical optimization problems in the field of Operations Management, including assortment, inventory, and price optimization. Naturally, accurate estimation of these models from data is a critical step in the application of these optimization problems in practice. Concurrently, recent advancements in deep learning have sparked interest in integrating these techniques into choice modeling. However, there is a noticeable research gap at the intersection of deep learning and choice modeling, particularly with both theoretical and empirical foundations. Thus motivated, we first propose a choice model that is the first to successfully (both theoretically and practically) leverage a modern neural network architectural concept (self-attention). Theoretically, we show that our attention-based choice model is a low-rank generalization of the Halo Multinomial Logit (Halo-MNL) model. We prove that whereas the Halo-MNL requires $\Omega(m^2)$ data samples to estimate, where $m$ is the number of products, our model supports a natural nonconvex estimator (in particular, that which a standard neural network implementation would apply) which admits a near-optimal stationary point with $O(m)$ samples. Additionally, we establish the first realistic-scale benchmark for choice model estimation on real data, conducting the most extensive evaluation of existing models to date, thereby highlighting our model's superior performance.
We propose a functional accelerated failure time model to characterize effects of both functional and scalar covariates on the time to event of interest, and provide regularity conditions to guarantee model identifiability. For efficient estimation of model parameters, we develop a sieve maximum likelihood approach where parametric and nonparametric coefficients are bundled with an unknown baseline hazard function in the likelihood function. Not only do the bundled parameters cause immense numerical difficulties, but they also result in new challenges in theoretical development. By developing a general theoretical framework, we overcome the challenges arising from the bundled parameters and derive the convergence rate of the proposed estimator. Furthermore, we prove that the finite-dimensional estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal and achieves the semiparametric information bound. The proposed inference procedures are evaluated by extensive simulation studies and illustrated with an application to the sequential organ failure assessment data from the Improving Care of Acute Lung Injury Patients study.
Dataset distillation methods reduce large-scale datasets to smaller sets of synthetic data, which preserve sufficient information for quickly training a new model from scratch. However, prior work on dataset distillation has focused exclusively on image classification datasets, whereas modern large-scale datasets are primarily in the vision-language space. In this work, we design the first vision-language dataset distillation method, building on the idea of trajectory matching. A key challenge is that vision-language datasets do not have a set of discrete classes. To overcome this, our proposed method jointly distills the image-text pairs in a contrastive formulation. Further, we leverage Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) matching to enable more efficient and effective trajectory matching in complex modern vision-language models. Since there are no existing baselines, we compare our distillation approach to three adapted vision-language coreset selection methods. We demonstrate significant improvements on the challenging Flickr30K and COCO retrieval benchmarks: for example, on Flickr30K, the best coreset selection method selecting 1000 image-text pairs for training achieves only 5.6% image-to-text retrieval accuracy (i.e., recall@1); in contrast, our dataset distillation approach almost doubles that to 9.9% with just 100 (an order of magnitude fewer) training pairs.
Quantile regression (QR) is a statistical tool for distribution-free estimation of conditional quantiles of a target variable given explanatory features. QR is limited by the assumption that the target distribution is univariate and defined on an Euclidean domain. Although the notion of quantiles was recently extended to multi-variate distributions, QR for multi-variate distributions on manifolds remains underexplored, even though many important applications inherently involve data distributed on, e.g., spheres (climate and geological phenomena), and tori (dihedral angles in proteins). By leveraging optimal transport theory and c-concave functions, we meaningfully define conditional vector quantile functions of high-dimensional variables on manifolds (M-CVQFs). Our approach allows for quantile estimation, regression, and computation of conditional confidence sets and likelihoods. We demonstrate the approach's efficacy and provide insights regarding the meaning of non-Euclidean quantiles through synthetic and real data experiments.
This study investigates the asymptotic dynamics of alternating minimization applied to optimize a bilinear non-convex function with normally distributed covariates. We employ the replica method from statistical physics in a multi-step approach to precisely trace the algorithm's evolution. Our findings indicate that the dynamics can be described effectively by a two--dimensional discrete stochastic process, where each step depends on all previous time steps, revealing a memory dependency in the procedure. The theoretical framework developed in this work is broadly applicable for the analysis of various iterative algorithms, extending beyond the scope of alternating minimization.
Sheaves are mathematical objects consisting of a base which constitutes a topological space and the data associated with each open set thereof, e.g. continuous functions defined on the open sets. Sheaves have originally been used in algebraic topology and logic. Recently, they have also modelled events such as physical experiments and natural language disambiguation processes. We extend the latter models from lexical ambiguities to discourse ambiguities arising from anaphora. To begin, we calculated a new measure of contextuality for a dataset of basic anaphoric discourses, resulting in a higher proportion of contextual models--82.9%--compared to previous work which only yielded 3.17% contextual models. Then, we show how an extension of the natural language processing challenge, known as the Winograd Schema, which involves anaphoric ambiguities can be modelled on the Bell-CHSH scenario with a contextual fraction of 0.096.
Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.
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