Accurate forecasting of electricity consumption is essential to ensure the performance and stability of the grid, especially as the use of renewable energy increases. Forecasting electricity is challenging because it depends on many external factors, such as weather and calendar variables. While regression-based models are currently effective, the emergence of new explanatory variables and the need to refine the temporality of the signals to be forecasted is encouraging the exploration of novel methodologies, in particular deep learning models. However, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) struggle with this task due to the lack of data points and the different types of explanatory variables (e.g. integer, float, or categorical). In this paper, we explain why and how we used Automated Deep Learning (AutoDL) to find performing DNNs for load forecasting. We ended up creating an AutoDL framework called EnergyDragon by extending the DRAGON package and applying it to load forecasting. EnergyDragon automatically selects the features embedded in the DNN training in an innovative way and optimizes the architecture and the hyperparameters of the networks. We demonstrate on the French load signal that EnergyDragon can find original DNNs that outperform state-of-the-art load forecasting methods as well as other AutoDL approaches.
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A mechanism is described that addresses the fundamental trade off between media producers who want to increase reach and consumers who provide attention based on the rate of utility received, and where overreach negatively impacts that rate. An optimal solution can be achieved when the media source considers the impact of overreach in a cost function used in determining the optimal distribution of content to maximize individual consumer utility and participation. The result is a Nash equilibrium between producer and consumer that is also Pareto efficient. Comparison with the literature on Recommender systems highlights the advantages of the mechanism.The review suggests advancements over that literature including identifying an optimal content volume for the consumer and improvements for handling multiple objectives A practical algorithm to generate the optimal distribution for each consumer is provided.
Data assimilation is a central problem in many geophysical applications, such as weather forecasting. It aims to estimate the state of a potentially large system, such as the atmosphere, from sparse observations, supplemented by prior physical knowledge. The size of the systems involved and the complexity of the underlying physical equations make it a challenging task from a computational point of view. Neural networks represent a promising method of emulating the physics at low cost, and therefore have the potential to considerably improve and accelerate data assimilation. In this work, we introduce a deep learning approach where the physical system is modeled as a sequence of coarse-to-fine Gaussian prior distributions parametrized by a neural network. This allows us to define an assimilation operator, which is trained in an end-to-end fashion to minimize the reconstruction error on a dataset with different observation processes. We illustrate our approach on chaotic dynamical physical systems with sparse observations, and compare it to traditional variational data assimilation methods.
While maximizing line-of-sight coverage of specific regions or agents in the environment is a well-explored path planning objective, the converse problem of minimizing exposure to the entire environment during navigation is especially interesting in the context of minimizing detection risk. This work demonstrates that minimizing line-of-sight exposure to the environment is non-Markovian, which cannot be efficiently solved optimally with traditional path planning. The optimality gap of the graph-search algorithm A* and the trade-offs in optimality vs. computation time of several approximating heuristics is explored. Finally, the concept of equal-exposure corridors, which afford polynomial time determination of all paths that do not increase exposure, is presented.
Analyzing sequential data is crucial in many domains, particularly due to the abundance of data collected from the Internet of Things paradigm. Time series classification, the task of categorizing sequential data, has gained prominence, with machine learning approaches demonstrating remarkable performance on public benchmark datasets. However, progress has primarily been in designing architectures for learning representations from raw data at fixed (or ideal) time scales, which can fail to generalize to longer sequences. This work introduces a \textit{compositional representation learning} approach trained on statistically coherent components extracted from sequential data. Based on a multi-scale change space, an unsupervised approach is proposed to segment the sequential data into chunks with similar statistical properties. A sequence-based encoder model is trained in a multi-task setting to learn compositional representations from these temporal components for time series classification. We demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive experiments on publicly available time series classification benchmarks. Evaluating the coherence of segmented components shows its competitive performance on the unsupervised segmentation task.
Recently, convolution neural networks (CNNs) have attracted a great deal of attention due to their remarkable performance in various domains, particularly in image and text classification tasks. However, their application to tabular data classification remains underexplored. There are many fields such as bioinformatics, finance, medicine where nonimage data are prevalent. Adaption of CNNs to classify nonimage data remains highly challenging. This paper investigates the efficacy of CNNs for tabular data classification, aiming to bridge the gap between traditional machine learning approaches and deep learning techniques. We propose a novel framework fuzzy convolution neural network (FCNN) tailored specifically for tabular data to capture local patterns within feature vectors. In our approach, we map feature values to fuzzy memberships. The fuzzy membership vectors are converted into images that are used to train the CNN model. The trained CNN model is used to classify unknown feature vectors. To validate our approach, we generated six complex noisy data sets. We used randomly selected seventy percent samples from each data set for training and thirty percent for testing. The data sets were also classified using the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms such as the decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), fuzzy neural network (FNN), Bayes classifier, and Random Forest (RF). Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed model can effectively learn meaningful representations from tabular data, achieving competitive or superior performance compared to existing methods. Overall, our finding suggests that the proposed FCNN model holds promise as a viable alternative for tabular data classification tasks, offering a fresh prospective and potentially unlocking new opportunities for leveraging deep learning in structured data analysis.
Robots navigating in crowded areas should negotiate free space with humans rather than fully controlling collision avoidance, as this can lead to freezing behavior. Game theory provides a framework for the robot to reason about potential cooperation from humans for collision avoidance during path planning. In particular, the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium captures the negotiation behavior under uncertainty, making it well suited for crowd navigation. However, computing the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is often prohibitively expensive for real-time decision-making. In this paper, we propose an iterative Bayesian update scheme over probability distributions of trajectories. The algorithm simultaneously generates a stochastic plan for the robot and probabilistic predictions of other pedestrians' paths. We prove that the proposed algorithm is equivalent to solving a mixed strategy game for crowd navigation, and the algorithm guarantees the recovery of the global Nash equilibrium of the game. We name our algorithm Bayes' Rule Nash Equilibrium (BRNE) and develop a real-time model prediction crowd navigation framework. Since BRNE is not solving a general-purpose mixed strategy Nash equilibrium but a tailored formula specifically for crowd navigation, it can compute the solution in real-time on a low-power embedded computer. We evaluate BRNE in both simulated environments and real-world pedestrian datasets. BRNE consistently outperforms non-learning and learning-based methods regarding safety and navigation efficiency. It also reaches human-level crowd navigation performance in the pedestrian dataset benchmark. Lastly, we demonstrate the practicality of our algorithm with real humans on an untethered quadruped robot with fully onboard perception and computation.
We analyze a number of natural estimators for the optimal transport map between two distributions and show that they are minimax optimal. We adopt the plugin approach: our estimators are simply optimal couplings between measures derived from our observations, appropriately extended so that they define functions on $\mathbb{R}^d$. When the underlying map is assumed to be Lipschitz, we show that computing the optimal coupling between the empirical measures, and extending it using linear smoothers, already gives a minimax optimal estimator. When the underlying map enjoys higher regularity, we show that the optimal coupling between appropriate nonparametric density estimates yields faster rates. Our work also provides new bounds on the risk of corresponding plugin estimators for the quadratic Wasserstein distance, and we show how this problem relates to that of estimating optimal transport maps using stability arguments for smooth and strongly convex Brenier potentials. As an application of our results, we derive central limit theorems for plugin estimators of the squared Wasserstein distance, which are centered at their population counterpart when the underlying distributions have sufficiently smooth densities. In contrast to known central limit theorems for empirical estimators, this result easily lends itself to statistical inference for the quadratic Wasserstein distance.
Advances in artificial intelligence often stem from the development of new environments that abstract real-world situations into a form where research can be done conveniently. This paper contributes such an environment based on ideas inspired by elementary Microeconomics. Agents learn to produce resources in a spatially complex world, trade them with one another, and consume those that they prefer. We show that the emergent production, consumption, and pricing behaviors respond to environmental conditions in the directions predicted by supply and demand shifts in Microeconomics. We also demonstrate settings where the agents' emergent prices for goods vary over space, reflecting the local abundance of goods. After the price disparities emerge, some agents then discover a niche of transporting goods between regions with different prevailing prices -- a profitable strategy because they can buy goods where they are cheap and sell them where they are expensive. Finally, in a series of ablation experiments, we investigate how choices in the environmental rewards, bartering actions, agent architecture, and ability to consume tradable goods can either aid or inhibit the emergence of this economic behavior. This work is part of the environment development branch of a research program that aims to build human-like artificial general intelligence through multi-agent interactions in simulated societies. By exploring which environment features are needed for the basic phenomena of elementary microeconomics to emerge automatically from learning, we arrive at an environment that differs from those studied in prior multi-agent reinforcement learning work along several dimensions. For example, the model incorporates heterogeneous tastes and physical abilities, and agents negotiate with one another as a grounded form of communication.
This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.
Embedding entities and relations into a continuous multi-dimensional vector space have become the dominant method for knowledge graph embedding in representation learning. However, most existing models ignore to represent hierarchical knowledge, such as the similarities and dissimilarities of entities in one domain. We proposed to learn a Domain Representations over existing knowledge graph embedding models, such that entities that have similar attributes are organized into the same domain. Such hierarchical knowledge of domains can give further evidence in link prediction. Experimental results show that domain embeddings give a significant improvement over the most recent state-of-art baseline knowledge graph embedding models.
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