Successful quantitative investment usually relies on precise predictions of the future movement of the stock price. Recently, machine learning based solutions have shown their capacity to give more accurate stock prediction and become indispensable components in modern quantitative investment systems. However, the i.i.d. assumption behind existing methods is inconsistent with the existence of diverse trading patterns in the stock market, which inevitably limits their ability to achieve better stock prediction performance. In this paper, we propose a novel architecture, Temporal Routing Adaptor (TRA), to empower existing stock prediction models with the ability to model multiple stock trading patterns. Essentially, TRA is a lightweight module that consists of a set of independent predictors for learning multiple patterns as well as a router to dispatch samples to different predictors. Nevertheless, the lack of explicit pattern identifiers makes it quite challenging to train an effective TRA-based model. To tackle this challenge, we further design a learning algorithm based on Optimal Transport (OT) to obtain the optimal sample to predictor assignment and effectively optimize the router with such assignment through an auxiliary loss term. Experiments on the real-world stock ranking task show that compared to the state-of-the-art baselines, e.g., Attention LSTM and Transformer, the proposed method can improve information coefficient (IC) from 0.053 to 0.059 and 0.051 to 0.056 respectively. Our dataset and code used in this work are publicly available: //github.com/microsoft/qlib/tree/main/examples/benchmarks/TRA.
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Distributed optimization is often widely attempted and innovated as an attractive and preferred methodology to solve large-scale problems effectively in a localized and coordinated manner. Thus, it is noteworthy that the methodology of distributed model predictive control (DMPC) has become a promising approach to achieve effective outcomes, e.g., in decision-making tasks for multi-agent systems. However, the typical deployment of such distributed MPC frameworks would lead to the involvement of nonlinear processes with a large number of nonconvex constraints. To address this important problem, the development and innovation of a hierarchical three-block alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) approach is presented in this work to solve this nonconvex cooperative DMPC problem in multi-agent systems. Here firstly, an additional slack variable is introduced to transform the original large-scale nonconvex optimization problem. Then, a hierarchical ADMM approach, which contains outer loop iteration by the augmented Lagrangian method (ALM) and inner loop iteration by three-block semi-proximal ADMM, is utilized to solve the resulting transformed nonconvex optimization problem. Additionally, it is analytically shown and established that the requisite desired stationary point exists for convergence in the algorithm. Finally, an approximate optimization stage with a barrier method is then applied to further significantly improve the computational efficiency, yielding the final improved hierarchical ADMM. The effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of attained performance and computational efficiency is demonstrated on a cooperative DMPC problem of decision-making process for multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Sampling methods (e.g., node-wise, layer-wise, or subgraph) has become an indispensable strategy to speed up training large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, existing sampling methods are mostly based on the graph structural information and ignore the dynamicity of optimization, which leads to high variance in estimating the stochastic gradients. The high variance issue can be very pronounced in extremely large graphs, where it results in slow convergence and poor generalization. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the variance of sampling methods and show that, due to the composite structure of empirical risk, the variance of any sampling method can be decomposed into \textit{embedding approximation variance} in the forward stage and \textit{stochastic gradient variance} in the backward stage that necessities mitigating both types of variance to obtain faster convergence rate. We propose a decoupled variance reduction strategy that employs (approximate) gradient information to adaptively sample nodes with minimal variance, and explicitly reduces the variance introduced by embedding approximation. We show theoretically and empirically that the proposed method, even with smaller mini-batch sizes, enjoys a faster convergence rate and entails a better generalization compared to the existing methods.
It is not until recently that graph neural networks (GNNs) are adopted to perform graph representation learning, among which, those based on the aggregation of features within the neighborhood of a node achieved great success. However, despite such achievements, GNNs illustrate defects in identifying some common structural patterns which, unfortunately, play significant roles in various network phenomena. In this paper, we propose GraLSP, a GNN framework which explicitly incorporates local structural patterns into the neighborhood aggregation through random anonymous walks. Specifically, we capture local graph structures via random anonymous walks, powerful and flexible tools that represent structural patterns. The walks are then fed into the feature aggregation, where we design various mechanisms to address the impact of structural features, including adaptive receptive radius, attention and amplification. In addition, we design objectives that capture similarities between structures and are optimized jointly with node proximity objectives. With the adequate leverage of structural patterns, our model is able to outperform competitive counterparts in various prediction tasks in multiple datasets.
Constituting highly informative network embeddings is an important tool for network analysis. It encodes network topology, along with other useful side information, into low-dimensional node-based feature representations that can be exploited by statistical modeling. This work focuses on learning context-aware network embeddings augmented with text data. We reformulate the network-embedding problem, and present two novel strategies to improve over traditional attention mechanisms: ($i$) a content-aware sparse attention module based on optimal transport, and ($ii$) a high-level attention parsing module. Our approach yields naturally sparse and self-normalized relational inference. It can capture long-term interactions between sequences, thus addressing the challenges faced by existing textual network embedding schemes. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate our model can consistently outperform alternative state-of-the-art methods.
Learning a faithful directed acyclic graph (DAG) from samples of a joint distribution is a challenging combinatorial problem, owing to the intractable search space superexponential in the number of graph nodes. A recent breakthrough formulates the problem as a continuous optimization with a structural constraint that ensures acyclicity (Zheng et al., 2018). The authors apply the approach to the linear structural equation model (SEM) and the least-squares loss function that are statistically well justified but nevertheless limited. Motivated by the widespread success of deep learning that is capable of capturing complex nonlinear mappings, in this work we propose a deep generative model and apply a variant of the structural constraint to learn the DAG. At the heart of the generative model is a variational autoencoder parameterized by a novel graph neural network architecture, which we coin DAG-GNN. In addition to the richer capacity, an advantage of the proposed model is that it naturally handles discrete variables as well as vector-valued ones. We demonstrate that on synthetic data sets, the proposed method learns more accurate graphs for nonlinearly generated samples; and on benchmark data sets with discrete variables, the learned graphs are reasonably close to the global optima. The code is available at \url{//github.com/fishmoon1234/DAG-GNN}.
This study evaluates the performances of CNN and LSTM for recognizing common charts patterns in a stock historical data. It presents two common patterns, the method used to build the training set, the neural networks architectures and the accuracies obtained.
Accelerated Randomized Coordinate Descent Algorithms for Stochastic Optimization and Online Learning
We propose accelerated randomized coordinate descent algorithms for stochastic optimization and online learning. Our algorithms have significantly less per-iteration complexity than the known accelerated gradient algorithms. The proposed algorithms for online learning have better regret performance than the known randomized online coordinate descent algorithms. Furthermore, the proposed algorithms for stochastic optimization exhibit as good convergence rates as the best known randomized coordinate descent algorithms. We also show simulation results to demonstrate performance of the proposed algorithms.
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.
We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.
Partial person re-identification (re-id) is a challenging problem, where only some partial observations (images) of persons are available for matching. However, few studies have offered a flexible solution of how to identify an arbitrary patch of a person image. In this paper, we propose a fast and accurate matching method to address this problem. The proposed method leverages Fully Convolutional Network (FCN) to generate certain-sized spatial feature maps such that pixel-level features are consistent. To match a pair of person images of different sizes, hence, a novel method called Deep Spatial feature Reconstruction (DSR) is further developed to avoid explicit alignment. Specifically, DSR exploits the reconstructing error from popular dictionary learning models to calculate the similarity between different spatial feature maps. In that way, we expect that the proposed FCN can decrease the similarity of coupled images from different persons and increase that of coupled images from the same person. Experimental results on two partial person datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison with several state-of-the-art partial person re-id approaches. Additionally, it achieves competitive results on a benchmark person dataset Market1501 with the Rank-1 accuracy being 83.58%.
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