Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.
相關內容
We propose an approach based on function evaluations and Bayesian inference to extract higher-order differential information of objective functions {from a given ensemble of particles}. Pointwise evaluation $\{V(x^i)\}_i$ of some potential $V$ in an ensemble $\{x^i\}_i$ contains implicit information about first or higher order derivatives, which can be made explicit with little computational effort (ensemble-based gradient inference -- EGI). We suggest to use this information for the improvement of established ensemble-based numerical methods for optimization and sampling such as Consensus-based optimization and Langevin-based samplers. Numerical studies indicate that the augmented algorithms are often superior to their gradient-free variants, in particular the augmented methods help the ensembles to escape their initial domain, to explore multimodal, non-Gaussian settings and to speed up the collapse at the end of optimization dynamics.} The code for the numerical examples in this manuscript can be found in the paper's Github repository (//github.com/MercuryBench/ensemble-based-gradient.git).
We introduce two new classes of exact Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers for inference in latent dynamical models. The first one, which we coin auxiliary Kalman samplers, relies on finding a linear Gaussian state-space model approximation around the running trajectory corresponding to the state of the Markov chain. The second, that we name auxiliary particle Gibbs samplers corresponds to deriving good local proposals in an auxiliary Feynman--Kac model for use in particle Gibbs. Both samplers are controlled by augmenting the target distribution with auxiliary observations, resulting in an efficient Gibbs sampling routine. We discuss the relative statistical and computational performance of the samplers introduced, and show how to parallelise the auxiliary samplers along the time dimension. We illustrate the respective benefits and drawbacks of the resulting algorithms on classical examples from the particle filtering literature.
A lower bound is an important tool for predicting the performance that an estimator can achieve under a particular statistical model. Bayesian bounds are a kind of such bounds which not only utilizes the observation statistics but also includes the prior model information. In reality, however, the true model generating the data is either unknown or simplified when deriving estimators, which motivates the works to derive estimation bounds under modeling mismatch situations. This paper provides a derivation of a Bayesian Cram\'{e}r-Rao bound under model misspecification, defining important concepts such as pseudotrue parameter that were not clearly identified in previous works. The general result is particularized in linear and Gaussian problems, where closed-forms are available and results are used to validate the results.
Online optimization has gained increasing interest due to its capability of tracking real-world streaming data. Although online optimization methods have been widely studied in the setting of frequentist statistics, few works have considered online optimization with the Bayesian sampling problem. In this paper, we study an Online Particle-based Variational Inference (OPVI) algorithm that uses a set of particles to represent the approximating distribution. To reduce the gradient error caused by the use of stochastic approximation, we include a sublinear increasing batch-size method to reduce the variance. To track the performance of the OPVI algorithm with respect to a sequence of dynamically changing target posterior, we provide a detailed theoretical analysis from the perspective of Wasserstein gradient flow with a dynamic regret. Synthetic and Bayesian Neural Network experiments show that the proposed algorithm achieves better results than naively applying existing Bayesian sampling methods in the online setting.
In this paper we present an active-set method for the solution of $\ell_1$-regularized convex quadratic optimization problems. It is derived by combining a proximal method of multipliers (PMM) strategy with a standard semismooth Newton method (SSN). The resulting linear systems are solved using a Krylov-subspace method, accelerated by certain general-purpose preconditioners which are shown to be optimal with respect to the proximal parameters. Practical efficiency is further improved by warm-starting the algorithm using a proximal alternating direction method of multipliers. We show that the outer PMM achieves global convergence under mere feasibility assumptions. Under additional standard assumptions, the PMM scheme achieves global linear and local superlinear convergence. The SSN scheme is locally superlinearly convergent, assuming that its associated linear systems are solved accurately enough, and globally convergent under certain additional regularity assumptions. We provide numerical evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach by comparing it against OSQP and IP-PMM (an ADMM and a regularized IPM solver, respectively) on several elastic-net linear regression and $L^1$-regularized PDE-constrained optimization problems.
A fundamental question in reinforcement learning theory is: suppose the optimal value functions are linear in given features, can we learn them efficiently? This problem's counterpart in supervised learning, linear regression, can be solved both statistically and computationally efficiently. Therefore, it was quite surprising when a recent work \cite{kane2022computational} showed a computational-statistical gap for linear reinforcement learning: even though there are polynomial sample-complexity algorithms, unless NP = RP, there are no polynomial time algorithms for this setting. In this work, we build on their result to show a computational lower bound, which is exponential in feature dimension and horizon, for linear reinforcement learning under the Randomized Exponential Time Hypothesis. To prove this we build a round-based game where in each round the learner is searching for an unknown vector in a unit hypercube. The rewards in this game are chosen such that if the learner achieves large reward, then the learner's actions can be used to simulate solving a variant of 3-SAT, where (a) each variable shows up in a bounded number of clauses (b) if an instance has no solutions then it also has no solutions that satisfy more than (1-$\epsilon$)-fraction of clauses. We use standard reductions to show this 3-SAT variant is approximately as hard as 3-SAT. Finally, we also show a lower bound optimized for horizon dependence that almost matches the best known upper bound of $\exp(\sqrt{H})$.
Data imbalance is a common problem in machine learning that can have a critical effect on the performance of a model. Various solutions exist but their impact on the convergence of the learning dynamics is not understood. Here, we elucidate the significant negative impact of data imbalance on learning, showing that the learning curves for minority and majority classes follow sub-optimal trajectories when training with a gradient-based optimizer. This slowdown is related to the imbalance ratio and can be traced back to a competition between the optimization of different classes. Our main contribution is the analysis of the convergence of full-batch (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and of variants that renormalize the contribution of each per-class gradient. We find that GD is not guaranteed to decrease the loss for each class but that this problem can be addressed by performing a per-class normalization of the gradient. With SGD, class imbalance has an additional effect on the direction of the gradients: the minority class suffers from a higher directional noise, which reduces the effectiveness of the per-class gradient normalization. Our findings not only allow us to understand the potential and limitations of strategies involving the per-class gradients, but also the reason for the effectiveness of previously used solutions for class imbalance such as oversampling.
This work considers the low-rank approximation of a matrix $A(t)$ depending on a parameter $t$ in a compact set $D \subset \mathbb{R}^d$. Application areas that give rise to such problems include computational statistics and dynamical systems. Randomized algorithms are an increasingly popular approach for performing low-rank approximation and they usually proceed by multiplying the matrix with random dimension reduction matrices (DRMs). Applying such algorithms directly to $A(t)$ would involve different, independent DRMs for every $t$, which is not only expensive but also leads to inherently non-smooth approximations. In this work, we propose to use constant DRMs, that is, $A(t)$ is multiplied with the same DRM for every $t$. The resulting parameter-dependent extensions of two popular randomized algorithms, the randomized singular value decomposition and the generalized Nystr\"{o}m method, are computationally attractive, especially when $A(t)$ admits an affine linear decomposition with respect to $t$. We perform a probabilistic analysis for both algorithms, deriving bounds on the expected value as well as failure probabilities for the $L^2$ approximation error when using Gaussian random DRMs. Both, the theoretical results and numerical experiments, show that the use of constant DRMs does not impair their effectiveness; our methods reliably return quasi-best low-rank approximations.
This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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