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The baseball statistic "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) has emerged as one of the most popular evaluation metrics. But it is not readily observed and tabulated; WAR is an estimate of a parameter in a vaguely defined model with all its attendant assumptions. Industry-standard models of WAR for starting pitchers from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference all assume that season-long averages are sufficient statistics for a pitcher's performance. This provides an invalid mathematical foundation for many reasons, especially because WAR should not be linear with respect to any counting statistic. To repair this defect, as well as many others, we devise a new measure, Grid WAR, which accurately estimates a starting pitcher's WAR on a per-game basis. The convexity of Grid WAR diminishes the impact of "blow-up" games and upweights exceptional games, raising the valuation of pitchers like Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford, and Catfish Hunter who exhibit fundamental game-by-game variance. Grid WAR is designed to accurately measure past performance, but also has predictive value insofar as a pitcher's Grid WAR is better than WAR at predicting future performance. Finally, at //gridwar.xyz we host a Shiny app which displays the Grid WAR results of each MLB game since 1952, including career, season, and game level results, which updates automatically every morning.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods are typically sample-inefficient, making it challenging to train and deploy RL-policies in real world robots. Even a robust policy trained in simulation requires a real-world deployment to assess their performance. This paper proposes a new approach to evaluate the real-world performance of agent policies prior to deploying them in the real world. Our approach incorporates a simulator along with real-world offline data to evaluate the performance of any policy using the framework of Marginalized Importance Sampling (MIS). Existing MIS methods face two challenges: (1) large density ratios that deviate from a reasonable range and (2) indirect supervision, where the ratio needs to be inferred indirectly, thus exacerbating estimation error. Our approach addresses these challenges by introducing the target policy's occupancy in the simulator as an intermediate variable and learning the density ratio as the product of two terms that can be learned separately. The first term is learned with direct supervision and the second term has a small magnitude, thus making it computationally efficient. We analyze the sample complexity as well as error propagation of our two step-procedure. Furthermore, we empirically evaluate our approach on Sim2Sim environments such as Cartpole, Reacher, and Half-Cheetah. Our results show that our method generalizes well across a variety of Sim2Sim gap, target policies and offline data collection policies. We also demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on a Sim2Real task of validating the performance of a 7 DoF robotic arm using offline data along with the Gazebo simulator.

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference for a type of partially observed stochastic Volterra equation (SVE). SVEs are found in many areas such as physics and mathematical finance. In the latter field they can be used to represent long memory in unobserved volatility processes. In many cases of practical interest, SVEs must be time-discretized and then parameter inference is based upon the posterior associated to this time-discretized process. Based upon recent studies on time-discretization of SVEs (e.g. Richard et al. 2021), we use Euler-Maruyama methods for the afore-mentioned discretization. We then show how multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (Jasra et al. 2018) can be applied in this context. In the examples we study, we give a proof that shows that the cost to achieve a mean square error (MSE) of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^2)$, $\epsilon>0$, is $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-20/9})$. If one uses a single level MCMC method then the cost is $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-38/9})$ to achieve the same MSE. We illustrate these results in the context of state-space and stochastic volatility models, with the latter applied to real data.

Large Language Models have not yet been broadly adapted for the analysis of scientific datasets due in part to the unique difficulties of tokenizing numbers. We propose xVal, a numerical encoding scheme that represents any real number using just a single token. xVal represents a given real number by scaling a dedicated embedding vector by the number value. Combined with a modified number-inference approach, this strategy renders the model end-to-end continuous when considered as a map from the numbers of the input string to those of the output string. This leads to an inductive bias that is generally more suitable for applications in scientific domains. We empirically evaluate our proposal on a number of synthetic and real-world datasets. Compared with existing number encoding schemes, we find that xVal is more token-efficient and demonstrates improved generalization.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have already been widely used in various graph mining tasks. However, recent works reveal that the learned weights (channels) in well-trained GNNs are highly redundant, which inevitably limits the performance of GNNs. Instead of removing these redundant channels for efficiency consideration, we aim to reactivate them to enlarge the representation capacity of GNNs for effective graph learning. In this paper, we propose to substitute these redundant channels with other informative channels to achieve this goal. We introduce a novel GNN learning framework named AKE-GNN, which performs the Adaptive Knowledge Exchange strategy among multiple graph views generated by graph augmentations. AKE-GNN first trains multiple GNNs each corresponding to one graph view to obtain informative channels. Then, AKE-GNN iteratively exchanges redundant channels in the weight parameter matrix of one GNN with informative channels of another GNN in a layer-wise manner. Additionally, existing GNNs can be seamlessly incorporated into our framework. AKE-GNN achieves superior performance compared with various baselines across a suite of experiments on node classification, link prediction, and graph classification. In particular, we conduct a series of experiments on 15 public benchmark datasets, 8 popular GNN models, and 3 graph tasks and show that AKE-GNN consistently outperforms existing popular GNN models and even their ensembles. Extensive ablation studies and analyses on knowledge exchange methods validate the effectiveness of AKE-GNN.

Object detectors usually achieve promising results with the supervision of complete instance annotations. However, their performance is far from satisfactory with sparse instance annotations. Most existing methods for sparsely annotated object detection either re-weight the loss of hard negative samples or convert the unlabeled instances into ignored regions to reduce the interference of false negatives. We argue that these strategies are insufficient since they can at most alleviate the negative effect caused by missing annotations. In this paper, we propose a simple but effective mechanism, called Co-mining, for sparsely annotated object detection. In our Co-mining, two branches of a Siamese network predict the pseudo-label sets for each other. To enhance multi-view learning and better mine unlabeled instances, the original image and corresponding augmented image are used as the inputs of two branches of the Siamese network, respectively. Co-mining can serve as a general training mechanism applied to most of modern object detectors. Experiments are performed on MS COCO dataset with three different sparsely annotated settings using two typical frameworks: anchor-based detector RetinaNet and anchor-free detector FCOS. Experimental results show that our Co-mining with RetinaNet achieves 1.4%~2.1% improvements compared with different baselines and surpasses existing methods under the same sparsely annotated setting.

In this paper, we introduce the Reinforced Mnemonic Reader for machine reading comprehension tasks, which enhances previous attentive readers in two aspects. First, a reattention mechanism is proposed to refine current attentions by directly accessing to past attentions that are temporally memorized in a multi-round alignment architecture, so as to avoid the problems of attention redundancy and attention deficiency. Second, a new optimization approach, called dynamic-critical reinforcement learning, is introduced to extend the standard supervised method. It always encourages to predict a more acceptable answer so as to address the convergence suppression problem occurred in traditional reinforcement learning algorithms. Extensive experiments on the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) show that our model achieves state-of-the-art results. Meanwhile, our model outperforms previous systems by over 6% in terms of both Exact Match and F1 metrics on two adversarial SQuAD datasets.

ASR (automatic speech recognition) systems like Siri, Alexa, Google Voice or Cortana has become quite popular recently. One of the key techniques enabling the practical use of such systems in people's daily life is deep learning. Though deep learning in computer vision is known to be vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, little is known whether such perturbations are still valid on the practical speech recognition. In this paper, we not only demonstrate such attacks can happen in reality, but also show that the attacks can be systematically conducted. To minimize users' attention, we choose to embed the voice commands into a song, called CommandSong. In this way, the song carrying the command can spread through radio, TV or even any media player installed in the portable devices like smartphones, potentially impacting millions of users in long distance. In particular, we overcome two major challenges: minimizing the revision of a song in the process of embedding commands, and letting the CommandSong spread through the air without losing the voice "command". Our evaluation demonstrates that we can craft random songs to "carry" any commands and the modify is extremely difficult to be noticed. Specially, the physical attack that we play the CommandSongs over the air and record them can success with 94 percentage.

We study the problem of learning to reason in large scale knowledge graphs (KGs). More specifically, we describe a novel reinforcement learning framework for learning multi-hop relational paths: we use a policy-based agent with continuous states based on knowledge graph embeddings, which reasons in a KG vector space by sampling the most promising relation to extend its path. In contrast to prior work, our approach includes a reward function that takes the accuracy, diversity, and efficiency into consideration. Experimentally, we show that our proposed method outperforms a path-ranking based algorithm and knowledge graph embedding methods on Freebase and Never-Ending Language Learning datasets.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have gained significant traction in the field of machine learning, particularly due to their high accuracy in visual recognition. Recent works have pushed the performance of GPU implementations of CNNs to significantly improve their classification and training times. With these improvements, many frameworks have become available for implementing CNNs on both CPUs and GPUs, with no support for FPGA implementations. In this work we present a modified version of the popular CNN framework Caffe, with FPGA support. This allows for classification using CNN models and specialized FPGA implementations with the flexibility of reprogramming the device when necessary, seamless memory transactions between host and device, simple-to-use test benches, and the ability to create pipelined layer implementations. To validate the framework, we use the Xilinx SDAccel environment to implement an FPGA-based Winograd convolution engine and show that the FPGA layer can be used alongside other layers running on a host processor to run several popular CNNs (AlexNet, GoogleNet, VGG A, Overfeat). The results show that our framework achieves 50 GFLOPS across 3x3 convolutions in the benchmarks. This is achieved within a practical framework, which will aid in future development of FPGA-based CNNs.