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In this paper we consider functional data with heterogeneity in time and in population. We propose a mixture model with segmentation of time to represent this heterogeneity while keeping the functional structure. Maximum likelihood estimator is considered, proved to be identifiable and consistent. In practice, an EM algorithm is used, combined with dynamic programming for the maximization step, to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator. The method is illustrated on a simulated dataset, and used on a real dataset of electricity consumption.

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of expectiles. While the theory of expectile estimation at central levels is substantial, tail estimation at extreme levels has so far only been considered when the tail of the underlying distribution is heavy. This article is the first work to handle the short-tailed setting where the loss (e.g. negative log-returns) distribution of interest is bounded to the right and the corresponding extreme value index is negative. We derive an asymptotic expansion of tail expectiles in this challenging context under a general second-order extreme value condition, which allows to come up with two semiparametric estimators of extreme expectiles, and with their asymptotic properties in a general model of strictly stationary but weakly dependent observations. A simulation study and a real data analysis from a forecasting perspective are performed to verify and compare the proposed competing estimation procedures.

Consider a population of agents whose choice behaviors are partially comparable according to given primitive orderings. The set of choice functions admissible in the population specifies a choice theory. A choice theory is self-progressive if any aggregate choice behavior consistent with the theory is uniquely representable as a probability distribution over admissible choice functions that are comparable. We establish an equivalence between self-progressive choice theories and (i) well-known algebraic structures called lattices; (ii) the maximizers of supermodular functions over a specific domain of choice functions. We extend our analysis to universally self-progressive choice theories which render unique orderly representations independent of primitive orderings.

Selection of covariates is crucial in the estimation of average treatment effects given observational data with high or even ultra-high dimensional pretreatment variables. Existing methods for this problem typically assume sparse linear models for both outcome and univariate treatment, and cannot handle situations with ultra-high dimensional covariates. In this paper, we propose a new covariate selection strategy called double screening prior adaptive lasso (DSPAL) to select confounders and predictors of the outcome for multivariate treatments, which combines the adaptive lasso method with the marginal conditional (in)dependence prior information to select target covariates, in order to eliminate confounding bias and improve statistical efficiency. The distinctive features of our proposal are that it can be applied to high-dimensional or even ultra-high dimensional covariates for multivariate treatments, and can deal with the cases of both parametric and nonparametric outcome models, which makes it more robust compared to other methods. Our theoretical analyses show that the proposed procedure enjoys the sure screening property, the ranking consistency property and the variable selection consistency. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed approach selects all confounders and predictors consistently and estimates the multivariate treatment effects with smaller bias and mean squared error compared to several alternatives under various scenarios. In real data analysis, the method is applied to estimate the causal effect of a three-dimensional continuous environmental treatment on cholesterol level and enlightening results are obtained.

Federated learning (FL) has been proposed to protect data privacy and virtually assemble the isolated data silos by cooperatively training models among organizations without breaching privacy and security. However, FL faces heterogeneity from various aspects, including data space, statistical, and system heterogeneity. For example, collaborative organizations without conflict of interest often come from different areas and have heterogeneous data from different feature spaces. Participants may also want to train heterogeneous personalized local models due to non-IID and imbalanced data distribution and various resource-constrained devices. Therefore, heterogeneous FL is proposed to address the problem of heterogeneity in FL. In this survey, we comprehensively investigate the domain of heterogeneous FL in terms of data space, statistical, system, and model heterogeneity. We first give an overview of FL, including its definition and categorization. Then, We propose a precise taxonomy of heterogeneous FL settings for each type of heterogeneity according to the problem setting and learning objective. We also investigate the transfer learning methodologies to tackle the heterogeneity in FL. We further present the applications of heterogeneous FL. Finally, we highlight the challenges and opportunities and envision promising future research directions toward new framework design and trustworthy approaches.

When is heterogeneity in the composition of an autonomous robotic team beneficial and when is it detrimental? We investigate and answer this question in the context of a minimally viable model that examines the role of heterogeneous speeds in perimeter defense problems, where defenders share a total allocated speed budget. We consider two distinct problem settings and develop strategies based on dynamic programming and on local interaction rules. We present a theoretical analysis of both approaches and our results are extensively validated using simulations. Interestingly, our results demonstrate that the viability of heterogeneous teams depends on the amount of information available to the defenders. Moreover, our results suggest a universality property: across a wide range of problem parameters the optimal ratio of the speeds of the defenders remains nearly constant.

Graph Convolution Networks (GCNs) manifest great potential in recommendation. This is attributed to their capability on learning good user and item embeddings by exploiting the collaborative signals from the high-order neighbors. Like other GCN models, the GCN based recommendation models also suffer from the notorious over-smoothing problem - when stacking more layers, node embeddings become more similar and eventually indistinguishable, resulted in performance degradation. The recently proposed LightGCN and LR-GCN alleviate this problem to some extent, however, we argue that they overlook an important factor for the over-smoothing problem in recommendation, that is, high-order neighboring users with no common interests of a user can be also involved in the user's embedding learning in the graph convolution operation. As a result, the multi-layer graph convolution will make users with dissimilar interests have similar embeddings. In this paper, we propose a novel Interest-aware Message-Passing GCN (IMP-GCN) recommendation model, which performs high-order graph convolution inside subgraphs. The subgraph consists of users with similar interests and their interacted items. To form the subgraphs, we design an unsupervised subgraph generation module, which can effectively identify users with common interests by exploiting both user feature and graph structure. To this end, our model can avoid propagating negative information from high-order neighbors into embedding learning. Experimental results on three large-scale benchmark datasets show that our model can gain performance improvement by stacking more layers and outperform the state-of-the-art GCN-based recommendation models significantly.

Since real-world objects and their interactions are often multi-modal and multi-typed, heterogeneous networks have been widely used as a more powerful, realistic, and generic superclass of traditional homogeneous networks (graphs). Meanwhile, representation learning (\aka~embedding) has recently been intensively studied and shown effective for various network mining and analytical tasks. In this work, we aim to provide a unified framework to deeply summarize and evaluate existing research on heterogeneous network embedding (HNE), which includes but goes beyond a normal survey. Since there has already been a broad body of HNE algorithms, as the first contribution of this work, we provide a generic paradigm for the systematic categorization and analysis over the merits of various existing HNE algorithms. Moreover, existing HNE algorithms, though mostly claimed generic, are often evaluated on different datasets. Understandable due to the application favor of HNE, such indirect comparisons largely hinder the proper attribution of improved task performance towards effective data preprocessing and novel technical design, especially considering the various ways possible to construct a heterogeneous network from real-world application data. Therefore, as the second contribution, we create four benchmark datasets with various properties regarding scale, structure, attribute/label availability, and \etc.~from different sources, towards handy and fair evaluations of HNE algorithms. As the third contribution, we carefully refactor and amend the implementations and create friendly interfaces for 13 popular HNE algorithms, and provide all-around comparisons among them over multiple tasks and experimental settings.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

Providing model-generated explanations in recommender systems is important to user experience. State-of-the-art recommendation algorithms -- especially the collaborative filtering (CF) based approaches with shallow or deep models -- usually work with various unstructured information sources for recommendation, such as textual reviews, visual images, and various implicit or explicit feedbacks. Though structured knowledge bases were considered in content-based approaches, they have been largely ignored recently due to the availability of vast amount of data and the learning power of many complex models. However, structured knowledge bases exhibit unique advantages in personalized recommendation systems. When the explicit knowledge about users and items is considered for recommendation, the system could provide highly customized recommendations based on users' historical behaviors and the knowledge is helpful for providing informed explanations regarding the recommended items. In this work, we propose to reason over knowledge base embeddings for explainable recommendation. Specifically, we propose a knowledge base representation learning framework to embed heterogeneous entities for recommendation, and based on the embedded knowledge base, a soft matching algorithm is proposed to generate personalized explanations for the recommended items. Experimental results on real-world e-commerce datasets verified the superior recommendation performance and the explainability power of our approach compared with state-of-the-art baselines.