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Structural identifiability is an important property of parametric ODE models. When conducting an experiment and inferring the parameter value from the time-series data, we want to know if the value is globally, locally, or non-identifiable. Global identifiability of the parameter indicates that there exists only one possible solution to the inference problem, local identifiability suggests that there could be several (but finitely many) possibilities, while non-identifiability implies that there are infinitely many possibilities for the value. Having this information is useful since, one would, for example, only perform inferences for the parameters which are identifiable. Given the current significance and widespread research conducted in this area, we decided to create a database of linear compartment models and their identifiability results. This facilitates the process of checking theorems and conjectures and drawing conclusions on identifiability. By only storing models up to symmetries and isomorphisms, we optimize memory efficiency and reduce query time. We conclude by applying our database to real problems. We tested a conjecture about deleting one leak of the model states in the paper 'Linear compartmental models: Input-output equations and operations that preserve identifiability' by E. Gross et al., and managed to produce a counterexample. We also compute some interesting statistics related to the identifiability of linear compartment model parameters.

We propose a framework to perform Bayesian inference using conditional score-based diffusion models to solve a class of inverse problems in mechanics involving the inference of a specimen's spatially varying material properties from noisy measurements of its mechanical response to loading. Conditional score-based diffusion models are generative models that learn to approximate the score function of a conditional distribution using samples from the joint distribution. More specifically, the score functions corresponding to multiple realizations of the measurement are approximated using a single neural network, the so-called score network, which is subsequently used to sample the posterior distribution using an appropriate Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme based on Langevin dynamics. Training the score network only requires simulating the forward model. Hence, the proposed approach can accommodate black-box forward models and complex measurement noise. Moreover, once the score network has been trained, it can be re-used to solve the inverse problem for different realizations of the measurements. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on a suite of high-dimensional inverse problems in mechanics that involve inferring heterogeneous material properties from noisy measurements. Some examples we consider involve synthetic data, while others include data collected from actual elastography experiments. Further, our applications demonstrate that the proposed approach can handle different measurement modalities, complex patterns in the inferred quantities, non-Gaussian and non-additive noise models, and nonlinear black-box forward models. The results show that the proposed framework can solve large-scale physics-based inverse problems efficiently.

Noninformative priors constructed for estimation purposes are usually not appropriate for model selection and testing. The methodology of integral priors was developed to get prior distributions for Bayesian model selection when comparing two models, modifying initial improper reference priors. We propose a generalization of this methodology to more than two models. Our approach adds an artificial copy of each model under comparison by compactifying the parametric space and creating an ergodic Markov chain across all models that returns the integral priors as marginals of the stationary distribution. Besides the garantee of their existance and the lack of paradoxes attached to estimation reference priors, an additional advantage of this methodology is that the simulation of this Markov chain is straightforward as it only requires simulations of imaginary training samples for all models and from the corresponding posterior distributions. This renders its implementation automatic and generic, both in the nested case and in the nonnested case.

Polyhazard models are a class of flexible parametric models for modelling survival over extended time horizons. Their additive hazard structure allows for flexible, non-proportional hazards whose characteristics can change over time while retaining a parametric form, which allows for survival to be extrapolated beyond the observation period of a study. Significant user input is required, however, in selecting the number of latent hazards to model, their distributions and the choice of which variables to associate with each hazard. The resulting set of models is too large to explore manually, limiting their practical usefulness. Motivated by applications to stroke survivor and kidney transplant patient survival times we extend the standard polyhazard model through a prior structure allowing for joint inference of parameters and structural quantities, and develop a sampling scheme that utilises state-of-the-art Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes to sample from the resulting transdimensional posterior with minimal user tuning.

Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of machine learning and generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, variational inference and stochastic calculus, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We show that these phase-transitions are always in a mean-field universality class, as they are the result of a self-consistency condition in the generative dynamics. We argue that the critical instability that arises from the phase transitions lies at the heart of their generative capabilities, which are characterized by a set of mean-field critical exponents. Finally, we show that the dynamic equation of the generative process can be interpreted as a stochastic adiabatic transformation that minimizes the free energy while keeping the system in thermal equilibrium.

We propose a test for the identification of causal effects in mediation and dynamic treatment models that is based on two sets of observed variables, namely covariates to be controlled for and suspected instruments, building on the test by Huber and Kueck (2022) for single treatment models. We consider models with a sequential assignment of a treatment and a mediator to assess the direct treatment effect (net of the mediator), the indirect treatment effect (via the mediator), or the joint effect of both treatment and mediator. We establish testable conditions for identifying such effects in observational data. These conditions jointly imply (1) the exogeneity of the treatment and the mediator conditional on covariates and (2) the validity of distinct instruments for the treatment and the mediator, meaning that the instruments do not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment or mediator) and are unconfounded given the covariates. Our framework extends to post-treatment sample selection or attrition problems when replacing the mediator by a selection indicator for observing the outcome, enabling joint testing of the selectivity of treatment and attrition. We propose a machine learning-based test to control for covariates in a data-driven manner and analyze its finite sample performance in a simulation study. Additionally, we apply our method to Slovak labor market data and find that our testable implications are not rejected for a sequence of training programs typically considered in dynamic treatment evaluations.

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using contemporaneous outcomes in control units. Methodological developments here concern multivariate dynamic models for time-varying effects across multiple treated units with explicit foci on sequential learning and aggregation of intervention effects. Analysis explores dimension reduction across multiple synthetic counterfactual predictors. Computational advances leverage fully conjugate models for efficient sequential learning and inference, including cross-unit correlations and their time variation. This allows full uncertainty quantification on model hyper-parameters via Bayesian model averaging. A detailed case study evaluates interventions in a supermarket promotions experiment, with coupled predictive analyses in selected regions of a large-scale commercial system. Comparisons with existing methods highlight the issues of appropriate uncertainty quantification in casual inference in aggregation across treated units, among other practical concerns.

Assessing the capabilities of large multimodal models (LMMs) often requires the creation of ad-hoc evaluations. Currently, building new benchmarks requires tremendous amounts of manual work for each specific analysis. This makes the evaluation process tedious and costly. In this paper, we present APEx, Automatic Programming of Experiments, the first framework for automatic benchmarking of LMMs. Given a research question expressed in natural language, APEx leverages a large language model (LLM) and a library of pre-specified tools to generate a set of experiments for the model at hand, and progressively compile a scientific report. The report drives the testing procedure: based on the current status of the investigation, APEx chooses which experiments to perform and whether the results are sufficient to draw conclusions. Finally, the LLM refines the report, presenting the results to the user in natural language. Thanks to its modularity, our framework is flexible and extensible as new tools become available. Empirically, APEx reproduces the findings of existing studies while allowing for arbitrary analyses and hypothesis testing.

We present a method to generate contingency tables that follow loglinear models with prescribed marginal probabilities and dependence structures. We make use of (loglinear) Poisson regression, where the dependence structures, described using odds ratios, are implemented using an offset term. We apply this methodology to carry out simulation studies in the context of population size estimation using dual system and triple system estimators, popular in official statistics. These estimators use contingency tables that summarise the counts of elements enumerated or captured within lists that are linked. The simulation is used to investigate these estimators in the situation that the model assumptions are fulfilled, and the situation that the model assumptions are violated.

We use Stein characterisations to derive new moment-type estimators for the parameters of several truncated multivariate distributions in the i.i.d. case; we also derive the asymptotic properties of these estimators. Our examples include the truncated multivariate normal distribution and truncated products of independent univariate distributions. The estimators are explicit and therefore provide an interesting alternative to the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). The quality of these estimators is assessed through competitive simulation studies, in which we compare their behaviour to the performance of the MLE and the score matching approach.