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In this work, we explore a framework for contextual decision-making to study how the relevance and quantity of past data affects the performance of a data-driven policy. We analyze a contextual Newsvendor problem in which a decision-maker needs to trade-off between an underage and an overage cost in the face of uncertain demand. We consider a setting in which past demands observed under ``close by'' contexts come from close by distributions and analyze the performance of data-driven algorithms through a notion of context-dependent worst-case expected regret. We analyze the broad class of Weighted Empirical Risk Minimization (WERM) policies which weigh past data according to their similarity in the contextual space. This class includes classical policies such as ERM, k-Nearest Neighbors and kernel-based policies. Our main methodological contribution is to characterize exactly the worst-case regret of any WERM policy on any given configuration of contexts. To the best of our knowledge, this provides the first understanding of tight performance guarantees in any contextual decision-making problem, with past literature focusing on upper bounds via concentration inequalities. We instead take an optimization approach, and isolate a structure in the Newsvendor loss function that allows to reduce the infinite-dimensional optimization problem over worst-case distributions to a simple line search. This in turn allows us to unveil fundamental insights that were obfuscated by previous general-purpose bounds. We characterize actual guaranteed performance as a function of the contexts, as well as granular insights on the learning curve of algorithms.

Investigators, funders, and the public desire knowledge on topics and trends in publicly funded research but current efforts in manual categorization are limited in scale and understanding. We developed a semi-automated approach to extract and name research topics, and applied this to \$1.9B of NCI funding over 21 years in the radiological sciences to determine micro- and macro-scale research topics and funding trends. Our method relies on sequential clustering of existing biomedical-based word embeddings, naming using subject matter experts, and visualization to discover trends at a macroscopic scale above individual topics. We present results using 15 and 60 cluster topics, where we found that 2D projection of grant embeddings reveals two dominant axes: physics-biology and therapeutic-diagnostic. For our dataset, we found that funding for therapeutics- and physics-based research have outpaced diagnostics- and biology-based research, respectively. We hope these results may (1) give insight to funders on the appropriateness of their funding allocation, (2) assist investigators in contextualizing their work and explore neighboring research domains, and (3) allow the public to review where their tax dollars are being allocated.

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power of $\alpha$, and then used as the prior distribution in the analysis of the replication data. Posterior distribution and Bayes factor hypothesis tests related to the power parameter $\alpha$ quantify the degree of compatibility between the original and replication study. Inferences for other parameters, such as effect sizes, dynamically borrow information from the original study. The degree of borrowing depends on the conflict between the two studies. The practical value of the approach is illustrated on data from three replication studies, and the connection to hierarchical modeling approaches explored. We generalize the known connection between normal power priors and normal hierarchical models for fixed parameters and show that normal power prior inferences with a beta prior on the power parameter $\alpha$ align with normal hierarchical model inferences using a generalized beta prior on the relative heterogeneity variance $I^2$. The connection illustrates that power prior modeling is unnatural from the perspective of hierarchical modeling since it corresponds to specifying priors on a relative rather than an absolute heterogeneity scale.

Knowledge graph reasoning (KGR) -- answering complex logical queries over large knowledge graphs -- represents an important artificial intelligence task, entailing a range of applications (e.g., cyber threat hunting). However, despite its surging popularity, the potential security risks of KGR are largely unexplored, which is concerning, given the increasing use of such capability in security-critical domains. This work represents a solid initial step towards bridging the striking gap. We systematize the security threats to KGR according to the adversary's objectives, knowledge, and attack vectors. Further, we present ROAR, a new class of attacks that instantiate a variety of such threats. Through empirical evaluation in representative use cases (e.g., medical decision support, cyber threat hunting, and commonsense reasoning), we demonstrate that ROAR is highly effective to mislead KGR to suggest pre-defined answers for target queries, yet with negligible impact on non-target ones. Finally, we explore potential countermeasures against ROAR, including filtering of potentially poisoning knowledge and training with adversarially augmented queries, which leads to several promising research directions.

Sentiment analysis is a vital tool for uncovering insights from financial articles, news, and social media, shaping our understanding of market movements. Despite the impressive capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in financial natural language processing (NLP), they still struggle with accurately interpreting numerical values and grasping financial context, limiting their effectiveness in predicting financial sentiment. In this paper, we introduce a simple yet effective instruction tuning approach to address these issues. By transforming a small portion of supervised financial sentiment analysis data into instruction data and fine-tuning a general-purpose LLM with this method, we achieve remarkable advancements in financial sentiment analysis. In the experiment, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art supervised sentiment analysis models, as well as widely used LLMs like ChatGPT and LLaMAs, particularly in scenarios where numerical understanding and contextual comprehension are vital.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are frequently and successfully used in medical prediction tasks. They are often used in combination with transfer learning, leading to improved performance when training data for the task are scarce. The resulting models are highly complex and typically do not provide any insight into their predictive mechanisms, motivating the field of 'explainable' artificial intelligence (XAI). However, previous studies have rarely quantitatively evaluated the 'explanation performance' of XAI methods against ground-truth data, and transfer learning and its influence on objective measures of explanation performance has not been investigated. Here, we propose a benchmark dataset that allows for quantifying explanation performance in a realistic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) classification task. We employ this benchmark to understand the influence of transfer learning on the quality of explanations. Experimental results show that popular XAI methods applied to the same underlying model differ vastly in performance, even when considering only correctly classified examples. We further observe that explanation performance strongly depends on the task used for pre-training and the number of CNN layers pre-trained. These results hold after correcting for a substantial correlation between explanation and classification performance.

We investigate a "learning to reject" framework to address the problem of silent failures in Domain Generalization (DG), where the test distribution differs from the training distribution. Assuming a mild distribution shift, we wish to accept out-of-distribution (OOD) data from a new domain whenever a model's estimated competence foresees trustworthy responses, instead of rejecting OOD data outright. Trustworthiness is then predicted via a proxy incompetence score that is tightly linked to the performance of a classifier. We present a comprehensive experimental evaluation of existing proxy scores as incompetence scores for classification and highlight the resulting trade-offs between rejection rate and accuracy gain. For comparability with prior work, we focus on standard DG benchmarks and consider the effect of measuring incompetence via different learned representations in a closed versus an open world setting. Our results suggest that increasing incompetence scores are indeed predictive of reduced accuracy, leading to significant improvements of the average accuracy below a suitable incompetence threshold. However, the scores are not yet good enough to allow for a favorable accuracy/rejection trade-off in all tested domains. Surprisingly, our results also indicate that classifiers optimized for DG robustness do not outperform a naive Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) baseline in the competence region, that is, where test samples elicit low incompetence scores.

Knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is a increasingly popular technique that aims to represent entities and relations of knowledge graphs into low-dimensional semantic spaces for a wide spectrum of applications such as link prediction, knowledge reasoning and knowledge completion. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of existing KGE techniques based on representation spaces. Particularly, we build a fine-grained classification to categorise the models based on three mathematical perspectives of the representation spaces: (1) Algebraic perspective, (2) Geometric perspective, and (3) Analytical perspective. We introduce the rigorous definitions of fundamental mathematical spaces before diving into KGE models and their mathematical properties. We further discuss different KGE methods over the three categories, as well as summarise how spatial advantages work over different embedding needs. By collating the experimental results from downstream tasks, we also explore the advantages of mathematical space in different scenarios and the reasons behind them. We further state some promising research directions from a representation space perspective, with which we hope to inspire researchers to design their KGE models as well as their related applications with more consideration of their mathematical space properties.

Blockchain is an emerging decentralized data collection, sharing and storage technology, which have provided abundant transparent, secure, tamper-proof, secure and robust ledger services for various real-world use cases. Recent years have witnessed notable developments of blockchain technology itself as well as blockchain-adopting applications. Most existing surveys limit the scopes on several particular issues of blockchain or applications, which are hard to depict the general picture of current giant blockchain ecosystem. In this paper, we investigate recent advances of both blockchain technology and its most active research topics in real-world applications. We first review the recent developments of consensus mechanisms and storage mechanisms in general blockchain systems. Then extensive literature is conducted on blockchain enabled IoT, edge computing, federated learning and several emerging applications including healthcare, COVID-19 pandemic, social network and supply chain, where detailed specific research topics are discussed in each. Finally, we discuss the future directions, challenges and opportunities in both academia and industry.

Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.